2012 Prediction

[Holmes]

I kinda half-agree with South Carolina, but I think North Dakota will be easier to get. Sure, Obama did a little better in South Carolina than North Dakota, but there's also what, 10 times more people living in South Carolina? It's easier to sway 20,000 people compared to 200,000.

But yeah, Obama did better with the white vote in South Carolina than Kerry and if the black vote comes out again... sure.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I've got a better idea....

I predict that any prediction made today is worthless.

Would that include the prediction that I am referencing here?

[anvi]

As a born and bred North Dakotan, I'd have to agree that Obama has a real shot at winning North Dakota in '12, but he would have to put more resources into the state than a Democratic candidate would probably deem worthwhile when chasing only 3 electoral votes.  Obama got one-third of the formula right for winning North Dakota, namely he won Cass and Grand Forks counties, the two biggest university towns.  But his margins here were not large enough to offset losses in the central and western parts of the state and rural areas.  The two other keys to winning NoDak is to win the three other major university cities, Bismarck-Mandan, Dickinson and Minot, all three of which he lost pretty badly this year.  He would also have to replicate on the small North Dakota scale what he successfully did in Indiana, namely push up his numbers by around 10% or so in the rural counties.  In two October polls before the election, North Dakota was statistically tied with about 11% undecided, but Obama pulled resources out of the state when the national polls tightened considerably after the Republican convention, and I think almost all these undecideds broke for McCain at the end, which, given North Dakota's voting history, was no big surprise.  All this considered, Obama lost North Dakota by only 8 points, which, when compared with Bush wins of 28 and 27 points in the last two generals, is a remarkable performance for a Democrat in my home state.  Personally, I'd love to see Obama win NoDak in 2012, but it's just got a paltry number of electoral votes.  South Carolina might be harder to win than North Dakota, but it's also worth more than twice NoDak's electoral votes, so it's worth a bigger investment if it's within reach in 2012.  I don't think Obama will win either state in 2012 though, even though he will win reelection by roughly the same margin as he did this year, maybe giving Indiana and North Carolina to the Republicans but winning Missouri and Arizona in trade.

[dialectical fetishist]

I predict an Obama victory, but it will be much closer than 2008.

[Matt Damon™]

I see it as 50/50. Grey are potential swings(for Obama if he does well(SO NOT HAPPENING LOL XD) or for the GOP(much more likely).

[yoman82]

Wow. That is a completely awful prediction. Indiana safe Republican? Obama won it this year, did he not? Montana and ND, too? Those states were decided by <3%. Arkansas voted 27% Republican above the national average, so that's safe Republican. and I don't get ME02. McCain wasn't even within ten points there.

[Senator Ben]

This assumes Obama has a decent first term; not great, but not terrible:

[opebo]

Unexperienced, unworkable leftist ideas,

No, his ideas are standard Center-Right Clintonism.

his attempting to play the populist/social center when people are backlashing against bush's social populism,

Nobody cares about this.  We're in a depression.

his attempt to govern for 12% of the US population and screwing over/ignoring the other 88%, etc.

You mean the 12% that a black?  You're nuts.

[Matt Damon™]

The upside of a bad Obama administration would be the end of independent black political participation. They singlehandedly voted in prop 8 and constantly vote to castrate law enforcement in the inner cities.

[pbrower2a]

In 2012, the Democratic Party will win Missouri in the electoral college.

Now I know I will be laughed out of the forum for making that prediction, but.. 

Hardly preposterous. Had it not been for Ralph Nader siphoning away some left-leaning votes in Missouri and Bob Barr siphoning off some right-leaning votes in North Carolina, then the two closest states for either candidate would have gone the opposite way.

[N.i.K.]

[pbrower2a]

I see it as 50/50. Grey are potential swings(for Obama if he does well(SO NOT HAPPENING LOL XD) or for the GOP(much more likely).

Strange! I see little reason for any state that went to Obama by a 10% or higher margin to go for a generic GOP candidate unless Obama fails catastrophically. No state that McCain won by less than 12%  isn't up for grabs, and none that went for Obama by 7% or more reverts to the GOP unless something strange happens.



Dubya won Texas by 23 points; McCain won it by 11.  That is a huge drop-off, even if the loss of the Favorite Son effect accounts for much. McCain is the strongest GOP candidate for the President since Reagan, and he won't be running in 2012. It's easy to say that because Texas is a Southern State it should have a culture amenable to the GOP. But Texas isn't a core Southern State anymore. Graft Oklahoma (one of the most right-wing States in the Union) onto Florida and you have Texas. 

Texas and Florida? Texas has a fast-growing Hispanic population, but the Texas Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are more politically-liberal than Cuban-Americans.  Texas has proportionally more blacks than does Florida, and they aren't leaving or going Republican anytime soon. Like Florida, Texas has lots of relocated Yankees (and will likely get more) who
aren't likely to vote Republican. Momentum will not be enough to make Texas a 50/50 state... but demographic change can do it in Texas.

Should Florida go for Obama by 8% in 2012, Texas goes for Obama in 2012.

I have moved Arkansas into the "safe Republican" zone. Any state that voted for the other Party by 20% must be considered a reasonably safe hold. Huckabee wins Arkansas easily, and Obama wins Arkansas only if he picks up a raft of similar states in politics (TN, KY, WV, MS, AL, arguably LA). I won't move it out of the Safe Republican zone until polls of 2012 suggest otherwise.

[Frodo]

Operating with the following assumptions:

1. The stock market reaches bottom in late 2009, and the economy begins to recover in early 2010.

2. The stimulus package works for the most part with minimal waste, helping to generate economic growth.

3. Obama and the Democratic Congress create a universal health care system along the lines of Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden's proposal in order to attract broad bipartisan support.  Single-Payer is apparently jettisoned early on in the process. 

4. A Cap-and-Trade system is created, generating enough revenue that helps to reduce the budget deficit by roughly half by the time Obama runs for re-election.

5. The Employee Free Choice Act is passed narrowly by Congress in early 2010, barely cresting the 60-vote margin needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.

6. Justice John Paul Stevens dies, and President Obama nominates (and the Senate confirms) a dark-horse candidate who later turns out to be the conservative version of David Souter.  In addition to strengthening the D.C. vs. Heller decision (by imposing a high standard for any new gun control laws) and ensuring that gay marriage would never be legalized by the Supreme Court for at least a generation, he provides the crucial vote required to overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision.  Chief Justice John Roberts, Jr. writes the opinion that essentially returns abortion to state legislatures to decide the issue as they see fit.  A backlash develops on the left...

7. Vice-President Biden is kept on as Obama's running-mate.

8. Iraq further stabilizes, allowing the Obama administration to withdraw up to 100,000 American troops by the late summer of 2011.  With the assent of the Iraqi government, the remainder (~40,000) is kept as a deterrent to Iran. 

9. American troop levels in Afghanistan is escalated to 100,000 by early 2012.  Situation in Pakistan continues to deteriorate as the Taliban focus their efforts east of the frontier provinces.  Afghanistan is stabilized, but only barely with the arrival of additional American soldiers.  The United States takes over the Afghan government in late 2009, getting rid of Hamid Karzai, and completely revamps it in an effort to rid it of corruption. 

10. Republicans regain some lost ground in the House in the 2010 mid-term elections, but lose ground in the Senate with Democrats now in control of at least 60 Senate seats.

11. After some hard-fought primaries and caucuses between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, Republicans nominate Newt Gingrich as their standard bearer (who is helped by Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour's decision to give his delegates to Gingrich, providing him with the crucial votes necessary to clinch the nomination).  He picks Mike Pence as his running-mate.



Obama/Biden: 377 EV/55% PV
Gingrich/Pence: 161 EV/44% PV
-------------------------------------------------------

Of course, once the 2010 census has been conducted, the electoral vote numbers will be altered from this map. 

[Senator Ben]

Welcome back, Frodo