2012 Prediction

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As a born and bred North Dakotan, I'd have to agree that Obama has a real shot at winning North Dakota in '12, but he would have to put more resources into the state than a Democratic candidate would probably deem worthwhile when chasing only 3 electoral votes.  Obama got one-third of the formula right for winning North Dakota, namely he won Cass and Grand Forks counties, the two biggest university towns.  But his margins here were not large enough to offset losses in the central and western parts of the state and rural areas.  The two other keys to winning NoDak is to win the three other major university cities, Bismarck-Mandan, Dickinson and Minot, all three of which he lost pretty badly this year.  He would also have to replicate on the small North Dakota scale what he successfully did in Indiana, namely push up his numbers by around 10% or so in the rural counties.  In two October polls before the election, North Dakota was statistically tied with about 11% undecided, but Obama pulled resources out of the state when the national polls tightened considerably after the Republican convention, and I think almost all these undecideds broke for McCain at the end, which, given North Dakota's voting history, was no big surprise.  All this considered, Obama lost North Dakota by only 8 points, which, when compared with Bush wins of 28 and 27 points in the last two generals, is a remarkable performance for a Democrat in my home state.  Personally, I'd love to see Obama win NoDak in 2012, but it's just got a paltry number of electoral votes.  South Carolina might be harder to win than North Dakota, but it's also worth more than twice NoDak's electoral votes, so it's worth a bigger investment if it's within reach in 2012.  I don't think Obama will win either state in 2012 though, even though he will win reelection by roughly the same margin as he did this year, maybe giving Indiana and North Carolina to the Republicans but winning Missouri and Arizona in trade.