I see it as 50/50. Grey are potential swings(for Obama if he does well(SO NOT HAPPENING LOL XD) or for the GOP(much more likely).
Strange! I see little reason for any state that went to Obama by a 10% or higher margin to go for a generic GOP candidate unless Obama fails catastrophically. No state that McCain won by less than 12% isn't up for grabs, and none that went for Obama by 7% or more reverts to the GOP unless something strange happens.
Dubya won Texas by 23 points; McCain won it by 11. That is a huge drop-off, even if the loss of the Favorite Son effect accounts for much. McCain is the strongest GOP candidate for the President since Reagan, and he won't be running in 2012. It's easy to say that because Texas is a Southern State it should have a culture amenable to the GOP. But Texas isn't a core Southern State anymore. Graft Oklahoma (one of the most right-wing States in the Union) onto Florida and you have Texas.
Texas and Florida? Texas has a fast-growing Hispanic population, but the Texas Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are more politically-liberal than Cuban-Americans. Texas has proportionally more blacks than does Florida, and they aren't leaving or going Republican anytime soon. Like Florida, Texas has lots of relocated Yankees (and will likely get more) who
aren't likely to vote Republican. Momentum will not be enough to make Texas a 50/50 state... but demographic change can do it in Texas.
Should Florida go for Obama by 8% in 2012, Texas goes for Obama in 2012.
I have moved Arkansas into the "safe Republican" zone. Any state that voted for the other Party by 20% must be considered a reasonably safe hold. Huckabee wins Arkansas easily, and Obama wins Arkansas only if he picks up a raft of similar states in politics (TN, KY, WV, MS, AL, arguably LA). I won't move it out of the Safe Republican zone until polls of 2012 suggest otherwise.
