2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Updated Map of County Winners:

[Tender Branson]

Last week, five 14 to 16-year olds dressed as Nazis disrupted the liberation ceremony of the former KZ Ebensee in Upper Austria, shouting "Heil Hitler" at survivors of the camp and even shooting at them with softguns.

This led to an outcry of SPÖ, ÖVP and Green members, while H.C. Strache of the FPÖ played it down as "actions by silly boys".

The results of Ebensee:

SPÖ: 35.7 (-10.7)
Martin: 20.4 (+5.9)
ÖVP: 19.9 (-3.5)
FPÖ: 10.5 (+7.1)
Greens: 8.3 (-2.8 )
BZÖ: 3.7 (+3.7)
KPÖ: 0.9 (-0.3)
Julis: 0.6 (+0.6)

Compare with Braunau am Inn:

SPÖ: 28.4 (-12.0)
Martin: 19.3 (+3.3)
ÖVP: 18.7 (-1.6)
FPÖ: 16.0 (+7.8 )
Greens: 9.4 (-4.8 )
BZÖ: 6.9 (+6.9)
KPÖ: 0.7 (-0.3)
Julis: 0.6 (+0.6)

[Tender Branson]

The first batch of postal votes have been counted today and the Greens managed to "steal" a seat from the Social Democrats, because they got a higher than normal share among postal votes.

Latest breakdown:

ÖVP: 30.0% (-2.7)
SPÖ: 23.8% (-9.5)
Martin: 17.7% (+3.7)
FPÖ: 12.8% (+6.5)
Greens: 9.7% (-3.2)
BZÖ: 4.6% (+4.6)
Julis: 0.7% (+0.7)
KPÖ: 0.7% (-0.1)

ÖVP: 6 seats (nc)
SPÖ: 4 seats (-3)
Martin: 3 seats (+1)
FPÖ: 2 seats (+1)
Greens: 2 seats (nc)

Turnout: 45.3% (+2.9)

http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at

[Tender Branson]

A map of the Far-Right (FPÖ+BZÖ) by Austrian County:



Light Blue (for example in the north of Lower Austria): 10-15%
Middle Blue (mostly in the center, almost all of Styria): 15-20%
The Blue in NW-Upper Austria: 20-25%
The Blue in Southern Carinthia: 25-30%
Dark Blue in Northern Carinthia: 30-35%

The Austrian average was about 17.4%.

Notice how well the Far-Right did in some regions outside of Carinthia, for example in the working class districts of Vienna (North-East and South-East) and in the Braunau region in Upper Austria.

Also notice how bad they were doing in the wealthy southern suburbs of Vienna and most of northern Lower Austria and northern Upper Austria. They also did very badly in my district (Zell am See/Salzburg), because most of their votes were sucked away by Martin, whereas the light area in western Tyrol is because of the ÖVP-strength there.

One thing this election has shown is that the FPÖ won't become the biggst party in next year's Vienna State Elections. Despite losing some 10% city-wide and about 20% in some working-class districts like Simmering, the SPÖ can expect to get a big chunk of this year's Martin voters back. Exit Polls have shown that Martin voters consist mostly of FPÖ voters (43%) and SPÖ voters (28%). I think even under the most optimistic circumstances, the FPÖ won't get more than 26% city-wide, with the SPÖ at about 35%.

[Tender Branson]

Green Party Strength by County:



The very definition of an urban/suburban party ...

[Tender Branson]

The first federal poll after the EU elections was released today by Gallup for Ö24:

ÖVP: 31% (+5)
SPÖ: 29% (nc)
FPÖ: 21% (+3)
Greens: 12% (+2)
BZÖ: 6% (-5)
Others: 1% (-5)

Hypothetical direct vote for Chancellor:

Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 37%
Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 36%

54% of all voters say Faymann should remain Chancellor, only 25% say he should resign.

[Tender Branson]

Hans-Peter Martin's share by County in the EP elections:



3 visible shades:

lightest: 10-15%
middle: 15-20%
dark: 20-25%

Austrian average: 17.7%

1 almost invisible shade:

If you click to zoom the picture, you will see a very light shade in 3 inner city districts of Vienna. It means 5-10% strength.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ share by Austrian County in the EP elections:



Lightest shade (only 2 counties): 0-10%
Light shade: 10-20%
Medium shade: 20-30%
Dark shade: 30-40%

[Tender Branson]

Finally, the ÖVP strength by Austrian county in the EP elections:



5 shades:

Lighest: 10-20%
Light: 20-30%
Medium: 30-40%
Dark: 40-50%
Black (4 counties): 50-60%

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile the FPÖ has proposed to draft all Austrian women, because otherwise they would be disadvantaged in the preventive medical checkup that is included in the draft.

I think the draft should be abolished alltogether and a voluntary army of about 20.000 should be introduced.

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new book that will be released this week studying the "values" of Austrians over time. The study was conducted in 1990, 1999 and 2008.

Some interesting findings:

Percentage of Austrians who say they would NOT like the following as their neighbours:

Drug addicts: 65% (change compared with '99: +12)
Rightwing-Extremists: 61% (+1)
Drunks: 59% (+6)
Leftwing-Extremists: 48% (-2)
Criminals: 45% (+18)
Mentally unstable persons: 36% (+18)
Roma: 32% (+7)
Muslims: 31% (+16)
People with AIDS: 27% (+10)
Homosexuals: 25% (nc)
Foreigners: 23% (+8)
Blacks: 18% (+11)
Jews: 18% (+10)
People with many children: 15% (+11)

80% think foreigners should adapt to the lifestyle of Austrians.

49% of Austrians think that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin in tough economic times, to prevent Austrians from losing their job.

40% think the most important thing children have to learn is obedience.

27% think that where there is strong authority there's also justice.

20% want a "strong leader personality".

6% want the Military to rule the country.

Probably going to buy that book to read more about it, 1500 adult Austrians were questioned in each of the 3 years.

http://derstandard.at/1244460578904/Wertestudie-Studie-Sehnsucht-nach-dem-starken-Mann

[Tender Branson]

Just read a different article about the new book in the newspaper "Die Presse":

The authors found that Austrians are socially conservative, with 52% saying they oppose abortion if the reasons are that the couple does not want "any more kids" or if the mother is single. Support for abortion increases to 70% if the child is likely to have a disability.

A majority is also against adotion of children by gay couples, with almost 70% against in western states like Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Salzburg. Support is highest at 31% in Vienna.

People with children and belief in God and generally people who live in the western states mentioned above are more likely to say they are "happy".

Generally, there's a strong belief that family (96%) and friends (93%) are very important.

Austrian men are working long compared with the rest of Europe (44.3 hours/week), but want to work less to spend more time with the children.

Happyness is also defined by many Austrians by "not living in Vienna".

[Hash]

There's also a new book that will be released this week studying the "values" of Austrians over time. The study was conducted in 1990, 1999 and 2008.

Some interesting findings:

Percentage of Austrians who say they would NOT like the following as their neighbours:

Drug addicts: 65% (change compared with '99: +12)
Rightwing-Extremists: 61% (+1)
Drunks: 59% (+6)
Leftwing-Extremists: 48% (-2)
Criminals: 45% (+18)
Mentally unstable persons: 36% (+18)
Roma: 32% (+7)
Muslims: 31% (+16)
People with AIDS: 27% (+10)
Homosexuals: 25% (nc)
Foreigners: 23% (+8)
Blacks: 18% (+11)
Jews: 18% (+10)
People with many children: 15% (+11)

80% think foreigners should adapt to the lifestyle of Austrians.

49% of Austrians think that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin in tough economic times, to prevent Austrians from losing their job.

40% think the most important thing children have to learn is obedience.

27% think that where there is strong authority there's also justice.

20% want a "strong leader personality".

6% want the Military to rule the country.

Probably going to buy that book to read more about it, 1500 adult Austrians were questioned in each of the 3 years.

http://derstandard.at/1244460578904/Wertestudie-Studie-Sehnsucht-nach-dem-starken-Mann

Sorry, but lol Austria lol.

[Tender Branson]

Final result after all postal votes are counted:

Eligible Voters: 6.362.633
Turnout: 45.97% (+3.54)
Total ballots cast: 2.925.130
Invalid votes: 60.512
Valid votes: 2.864.618

ÖVP: 858.919 votes (29.98%)
SPÖ: 680.041 votes (23.74%)
Martin: 506.092 votes (17.67%)
FPÖ: 364.206 votes (12.71%)
Greens: 284.505 votes (9.93%)
BZÖ: 131.213 votes (4.58%)
JuLis: 20.668 votes (0.72%)
KPÖ: 18.974 votes (0.66%)

ÖVP: 6 seats (Strasser, Karas, Rahner, Seeber, Rübig, Köstinger)
SPÖ: 4 seats (Swoboda, Regner, Leichtfried, Kadenbach)
Martin: 3 seats (Martin, Sabitzer, Ehrenhauser)
FPÖ: 2 seats (Mölzer, Obermayr)
Greens: 2 seats (Lunacek, Lichtenberger)

Map of each Austrian city and it's winner (you can also zoom the map):

Black: ÖVP
SPÖ: Red
Orange: BZÖ
Blue: FPÖ
Green: well ...
Grey: Martin

[Tender Branson]

The latest approval ratings for important Austrian politicians by OGM (June 8, MoE = 4.5%):

President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 76% Approve, 16% Disapprove

Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 53% Approve, 39% Disapprove

Vice-Chancellor Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 60% Approve, 23% Disapprove

Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP): 33% Approve, 17% Disapprove

President of Parliament Barbara Prammer (SPÖ): 49% Approve, 23% Disapprove

Minister for Economy Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP): 34% Approve, 17% Disapprove

FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache: 22% Approve, 67% Disapprove

3. Parliament President Martin Graf (FPÖ): 9% Approve, 61% Disapprove

BZÖ-leader Josef Bucher: 14% Approve, 30% Disapprove

Green leader Eva Glawischnig: 33% Approve, 53% Disapprove

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BundespolitikerInnen_Juni09_HP.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Latest Fessel-GfK poll for the September Upper Austria State Elections:

ÖVP: 41-42%
SPÖ: 30-32%
FPÖ: 12-14%
Greens: 8-9%
BZÖ: 5-6%

Another election where the Social Democrats will lose almost 8% compared with 2003, and the Far-Right rising to about 20%.

[Хahar 🤔]

There's also a new book that will be released this week studying the "values" of Austrians over time. The study was conducted in 1990, 1999 and 2008.

Some interesting findings:

Percentage of Austrians who say they would NOT like the following as their neighbours:

Drug addicts: 65% (change compared with '99: +12)
Rightwing-Extremists: 61% (+1)
Drunks: 59% (+6)
Leftwing-Extremists: 48% (-2)
Criminals: 45% (+18)
Mentally unstable persons: 36% (+18)
Roma: 32% (+7)
Muslims: 31% (+16)
People with AIDS: 27% (+10)
Homosexuals: 25% (nc)
Foreigners: 23% (+8)
Blacks: 18% (+11)
Jews: 18% (+10)
People with many children: 15% (+11)

80% think foreigners should adapt to the lifestyle of Austrians.

49% of Austrians think that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin in tough economic times, to prevent Austrians from losing their job.

40% think the most important thing children have to learn is obedience.

27% think that where there is strong authority there's also justice.

20% want a "strong leader personality".

6% want the Military to rule the country.

Probably going to buy that book to read more about it, 1500 adult Austrians were questioned in each of the 3 years.

http://derstandard.at/1244460578904/Wertestudie-Studie-Sehnsucht-nach-dem-starken-Mann

Sorry, but lol Austria lol.

"lol" isn't what comes to mind when I see that.

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls out today (2 new ones and an older one conducted before the EU elections):

Profil/Karmasin:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

Fessel-Gfk:

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

IMAS (older poll):

SPÖ: 28%
ÖVP: 26%
FPÖ: 20%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 6%

[Tender Branson]

There's also news about the April 2010 Austrian Presidential Elections:

Word is that President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) is personally leaning towards running for re-election, but not his wife Margit. Fischer would be 72 next year and probably his wife would like more time off for private matters with her husband. He'll decide in late summer if he'll run again.

For the ÖVP, popular Lower Austria governor Erwin Pröll is often mentioned as a top candidate, but the party is currenty split between opposing the popular Fischer or running on a SPÖVP fusion ticket. The ÖVP-Governor of Upper Austria has warned Pröll from opposing Fischer, but the Styrian ÖVP-boss has backed a Pröll-candidacy. We'll see later what Pröll does.

The FPÖ has said they will defintely run a candidate (which will not be FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache, because he will focus on the 2010 Vienna State Elections to become Mayor there). Popular names have been mentioned: Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ-leader in Lower Austria), Norbert Steger (Ex-FPÖ Vice Chancellor), Wilhelm Brauneder and Gerulf Stix (former Presidents of the Parliament). Strache said that the FPÖ is likely to back Erwin Pröll in the second round if the FPÖ candidate fails to get there.

The Greens are currently undecided but may run former Green leader Alexander Van der Bellen, who's still a widely popular politician.

The BZÖ wants to abolish the post of Austrian President alltogether, calling it unnecessary and something that a Chancellor could do as well ...

[Tender Branson]

In a poll published today in the newspaper Kleine Zeitung, Fischer (SPÖ) currently leads Pröll (ÖVP) by 56-16.

This is similar to the 67-18 lead in a Gallup/Ö24 poll in April.

[Hans-im-Glück]

BZÖ wants to abolish the post of Austrian President alltogether, calling it unnecessary and something that a Chancellor could do as well ...

The BZÖ says many stupid things, but here they are right. In Germany it's the same. Nobody can explain me why we must have a Federal President. He have nearly nothing to decide. This money we can we use for better things.

[Хahar 🤔]

Steger is still associated with the FPÖ? How old is he now?

[Tender Branson]

Steger is still associated with the FPÖ? How old is he now?

How do you know Steger ?

BTW, he's 65 now. I was somehow shocked that Strache would consider the "liberal" Steger, who was axed by Jörg Haider in the 1986 FPÖ leadership election, as a Presidential candidate for the FPÖ. I'd think Barbara Rosenkranz (housewife with 10 children of Germanic names and married to a Nazi) would be far better fitting for them ...

[Tender Branson]

BZÖ wants to abolish the post of Austrian President alltogether, calling it unnecessary and something that a Chancellor could do as well ...

The BZÖ says many stupid things, but here they are right. In Germany it's the same. Nobody can explain me why we must have a Federal President. He have nearly nothing to decide. This money we can we use for better things.

True, a chancellor could certainly do this stuff too, but I favor keeping it only for the fancy election maps I can create afterwards. And for checks and balances ...

[Tender Branson]

Talking about Austrian Presidential Election Maps. Here's one for the 1992 election between Thomas Klestil (ÖVP) and Rudolf Streicher (SPÖ). Klestil won with 56.9% to 43.1%:



Compared with Heinz Fischer (SPÖ - 52.4%) vs. Benita Ferrero-Waldner (ÖVP - 47.6%) in 2004:



Next I'll do the 1986 election between Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP - 53.9%) and Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ - 46.1%)

The 1996-Klestil-landslide would probably produce a very boring map ...