2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

[I left.]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

I'm actually somewhat surprised. I would have believed maybe 70% NO in Austria.

[Tender Branson]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

I'm actually somewhat surprised. I would have believed maybe 70% NO in Austria.

Austria's politicians are trailing society when it comes to recognizing gay unions or marriage.

The Greens are strongly pushing it, while SPÖ and ÖVP seem to have other priorities, and BZÖ and FPÖ against.

Latest polls from 2004 (Gallup) and 2006 (Eurobarometer) show 70% of Austrians in favor of Civil Unions and a majority for Marriage Rights (50%-44%).

Especially, when it comes to adoption of children by gay couples, Austria ranks third among the 27 EU-countries in support, just trailing the Netherlands and Sweden. 45% support it and 49% oppose it.

[Tender Branson]

Latest GMK Salzburg poll:

SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 13-16%
Greens: 5-7%
BZÖ: 2-4%

[Tender Branson]

New (internal) IGF poll for the SPÖ:

SPÖ: 41%
ÖVP: 36%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 3%

[Tender Branson]

With 1 week to go, the polls are tightening a bit, allthough Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) beats out her ÖVP counterpart in every poll by wide margins. The Social-Democrats also receive better grades for campaigning and "being most in touch with the citizens".

But the latest Market poll for the newspaper Standard shows:

SPÖ: 43%
ÖVP: 39%
FPÖ: 9%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 2%

I doubt that the FPÖ will only get 9%, because they almost always underpoll. It's more likely that the FPÖ will receive 16%, with the BZÖ about 4%. This will also lead to a lower share for the SPÖ, making the race for #1 more interesting. But lets hope this poll is the final result and Salzburg voters show the middle finger to the rightwingers FPÖ/BZÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, in a Profil-interview Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has declared his support for full marriage rights of homosexual couples, not only civil unions, which is the mainstream opinion among coalition politicians.

According to recent news articles and Interior Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP), it is now certain that Austrian Parliament will pass a civil union law this autumn that'll be active by Jan. 1, 2010.

Only the Greens have been for full marriage rights so far, while the SPÖ favored civil unions and the ÖVP was split (the more liberal wing incl. Vice Chancellor Josef Pröll for civil unions and the more conservative wing incl. General Secretary Fritz Kaltenegger against).

http://www.news.at/articles/0908/10/234475/es-standesamt-fischer-ehe-homosexuellen

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Market for the newspaper Standard:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 37%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%

[Tender Branson]

After watching the TV debates yesterday, here are my official endorsements for Sunday's
elections:

In my home state Salzburg, I'll vote for the Green Party, mainly because of their environmental and social stances (and especially because of Cyriak Schwaighofers good debate yesterday), and against Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ), because - allthough she's done a brilliant job over the last 5 years - she's not ruled out a coalition with the fascist and xenophobic FPÖ.



In Carinthia, I support Reinhart Rohr and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), because Gov. Dörfler (BZÖ) is a sick joke and turning into some kind of Carinthian George W. Bush:

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ), because - allthough she's done a brilliant job over the last 5 years - she's not ruled out a coalition with the fascist and xenophobic FPÖ.

Disgusting human trash. Anybody co-operating with xenophobes is trash.

[Sibboleth]

Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ), because - allthough she's done a brilliant job over the last 5 years - she's not ruled out a coalition with the fascist and xenophobic FPÖ.

Disgusting human trash. Anybody co-operating with xenophobes is trash.

Or a career politician.

Wait...

[Verily]

Burgstaller cooperating with the FPO would just be a moronic political move. I can see the election results in my head...

2009:

SPO: 40
OVP: 38
FPO: 10
Grune: 7

SPO/Grune comes one seat short of a majority, so Burgstaller goes with the FPO.

2011:

OVP: 36
SPO: 29
Grune: 19
FPO: 14

FPO pulls the plug on the government early with some ridiculous demand. Grune surges, SPO collapses. OVP/SPO grand coalition.

2015:

OVP: 30
SPO: 29
FPO: 22
Grune: 17

FPO makes hay out of an unpopular coalition government, Grune does so as well and keeps its strong figures. Another OVP/SPO grand coalition ensues.

etc.

[Tender Branson]

Burgstaller cooperating with the FPO would just be a moronic political move. I can see the election results in my head...

2009:

SPO: 40
OVP: 38
FPO: 10
Grune: 7

I think that FPÖ+BZÖ will get close to 20% on Sunday, maybe (16+4). Burgstaller not ruling out a coalition with the FPÖ probably has to do with the fact that the SPÖ owes a great share of its vote in 2004 and probably again this Sunday to blue-collar low income workers, who tend to vote for the FPÖ. By saying she's not ruling out a coalition beforehand, she strategically wants to appeal to these voters again. If she ruled out right away, those voters would have gone to the FPÖ in a second. Nonetheless, I think that the current SPÖ-ÖVP coalition will continue.

There's also a new poll out by IGF for the newspaper "Salzburger Fenster":

SPÖ: 41
ÖVP: 35
FPÖ: 14
Greens: 8
BZÖ: 2

BTW: The State and town ÖVP was targeting me today by sending me 2 letters including a ÖVP-pencil and a ÖVP-cereal bar ...

I've also received a letter by Gov. Burgstaller, but nothing from the Greens, FPÖ or BZÖ so far ...

[Tender Branson]

A new Gallup/Ö24 poll shows the SPÖ closing in on the BZÖ in the final days before the vote:

BZÖ: 37-41
SPÖ: 36-40
ÖVP: 11-13
Greens: 5-7
FPÖ: 5-7

2 things not in favor of the SPÖ winning on Sunday:

20% have not yet made up their mind and most of them are former SPÖ voters who went for Haider's FPÖ in 2004. If they break heavily for the BZÖ, the BZÖ wins.

The BZÖ-led government has sent out a 40-page campaign info to ALL households in Carinthia recently.

[Senator MaxQue]

BZO is collapsing because of the death of Haider?

[Tender Branson]

BZO is collapsing because of the death of Haider?

The BZÖ is hardly collapsing, at least not in Carinthia. Remember that the unified FPÖ got 42% of the vote in the 2004 state elections. Together with the FPÖ they would get about 45% on Sunday ...

Nobody knows if Haider would have reached 50%, but probably not ...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

BZO is collapsing because of the death of Haider?

Hardly. They're holding much better than I would have imagined.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll for Salzburg:

SPÖ: 38-40%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 12-14%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 3-5%

Gallup always seems to expect a tighter race in Salzburg than other polls show (5-7% SPÖ advantage). Allthough, if FPÖ and BZÖ increase their combined vote to about 15-20%, I'd trust Gallup more. If the 3 Center-Right parties are below 55%, I think the SPÖ will win, if they are getting between 55% and 60%, the ÖVP could overtake the SPÖ.

On the other side, a indicator that this will not happen is the fact that Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) leads Haslauer (ÖVP) by 49-26 in a direct vote for governor.

Also interesting the late BZÖ surge, but maybe not enough for the 5% treshold ...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

3 Center-Right parties are below 55%

The FPÖ and BZÖ are centre-right?

[Tender Branson]

3 Center-Right parties are below 55%

The FPÖ and BZÖ are centre-right?

The ÖVP is center-right, FPÖ+BZÖ far-right.

...

New European Parliament Elections poll for Austria by Market for the newspaper derStandard:

SPÖ: 35% (+2 since 2004)
ÖVP: 35% (+2)
Greens: 11% (-2)
H.P. Martin: 9% (-5)
FPÖ: 8% (+2)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)

Second poll after Gallup that shows a tied race between SPÖ and ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting official campaign logo of Carinthian FPÖ frontrunner Mario Canori:

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Interesting official campaign logo of Carinthian FPÖ frontrunner Mario Canori:

Even the fascists like Obama. Damn.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Funny note from Wikipedia on the Salzburg elections: The BZÖ will contest the state election under its new chairman Robert Stark.[2]

Anyways. What is the current governing coalition in Carinthia? Isn't it BZO-SPO?

[Tender Branson]

Funny note from Wikipedia on the Salzburg elections: The BZÖ will contest the state election under its new chairman Robert Stark.[2]

Anyways. What is the current governing coalition in Carinthia? Isn't it BZO-SPO?

It's a BZÖ-SPÖ-ÖVP coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Rising from the dead - Haider presides over Austrian regional election

Posted by: Sarah Marsh

Some 25,000 people attended his funeral, countless books have been written about him, a bridge was named in his honour and now the spectre of Austrian far-right leader Joerg Haider is dominating a regional election in Austria.

“A campaign with the tragically deceased Haider”; “A dead man is spearheading us”; “And above all, the spectre of Joerg Haider” read newspaper headlines.

Both of Austria’s far-right parties are staking their claim to Haider’s legacy in an election in the Alpine Province of Carinthia where he was governor for more than a decade.

“Carinthia is going HIS way,” proclaim the posters of Haider’s former Freedom Party. Freedom says Haider achieved his greatest successes when heading the party.

“We will look after your Carinthia,” echo the posters of Alliance for Austria’s Future, the splinter party that Haider set up in 2005 after internal disputes within Freedom.



Both parties, which mopped up a third of the vote between them in Austria’s recent parliamentary election, recognise the mileage still to be had out of Haider’s success.

The populist leader, who led the right into a coalition government from 2000-2006, was one of Austria’s rare internationally recognised public figures.

Austria went into mourning when Haider died four months ago in a high-speed car crash, and leaders of all political colours turned up for his funeral.

“People have the impression that, through Haider, they became a force to be reckoned with in the world,” Klaus Ottomeyer, professor of psychology at the university of Klagenfurt, told Reuters.

Ottomeyer, who will publish a book in March about the making of the Haider myth, said the Carinthians have glorified their former governor as benevolent father figure, Robin Hood or even a patron saint.

This may baffle outsiders, who are mostly familiar with Haider’s blunt anti-immigrant rhetoric and verbal gaffes. His notoriety peaked in the 1990s when he cited “the proper labour policies” of Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich and referred to concentration camps as “penal camps” in a parliamentary debate.

But for all the far-right’s bickering over the claim to Haider’s legacy, it may be time to move on and find a new hero.

Political researcher Guenther Ogris said the Haider cult was beginning to fade, and Carinthians were turning their focus elsewhere.

“At the end of the day, the economic crisis is now the main thing on people’s minds — that is emotionally more important than the dead governor.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2009/02/27/rising-from-the-dead-haider-presides-over-austrian-regional-election/