Tipp/IBD Says Bush 46 Kerry 43

[Reds4]

Bush up 3 in likely voters with and without Nader, up 1 in registered with and without Nader. Conducted September 14th-18th.

http://www.investors.com/editorial/issues.asp?v=9/21

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't it amazing that 10% of the electorate will decide who will be the President of the other 90%?

Every vote counts!

[The Vorlon]

There is a clear pattern developing in the polls.

Polls that do hard weight to party ID

Rasmussen - Bush +3.9 (7 day Rolling average)
Zogby - Bush +3
TIPP (Not a "hard weight" but a quota caller) - Bush +3
Battleground - Bush +4

Polls that Do Not Hard Weight

Gallup - Bush +8 (RVs)
CBS - Bush +9 (RVs)

We get a new NBC poll this week, and the DO hardweight so I expect they will show Bush +3-5 or so

(Not this is a change from the Teeter/Hart polls NBC used to do.)

For the record, I think party ID on election day will be very close to even GOP vs Dems.

[Sam Spade]

So theoretically, if the election were held today and you were to get roughly equivalent party ID, then the polls that do hard weight based on 2000 numbers would potentially be off by 1-3% towards the Democrat side, if I read you clear and right.

Makes sense to me.