Odds the Democrats get to 60?
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  Odds the Democrats get to 60?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
<5%		  
#2
5-10%		  
#3
10-20%		  
#4
20-30%		  
#5
30-40%		  
#6
40-50%		  
#7
50-60%		  
#8
60-70%		  
#9
70%+		  
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Total Voters: 39

Author Topic: Odds the Democrats get to 60?  (Read 2515 times)
Lunar
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« on: November 19, 2008, 02:29:54 AM »
Personally, I give Franken about a 60% chance of winning and Martin a 25% chance, meaning the Democrats have about a 15% of hitting this completely meaningless barrier.

Here's a research paper I posted in another thread that gives Franken the edge:
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~herron/mn.pdf

I generally think that a run-off election is unpredictable enough that Chambliss can't be said to be guaranteed to win and is generally underestimated.  Is the Republican base demoralized or are they fighting to keep hold of their firewall?  We already know which party should have, on face, a better organization.  Let's see, but let's keep an open mind about the race and remember how many question marks there are.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM »
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.
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Nixon in '80
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« Reply #2 on: November 19, 2008, 02:41:01 AM »
Chambliss wins, no question. *Knock on wood*
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BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2008, 02:51:54 AM »
Martin, if elected, would literally be one of the most progressive Senators in the caucus. He's taken bold, progressive stances on nearly every issue.

Odds Franken wins the recount: 45%
Odds Martin wins Georgia: 30%
45% * 30% = 13.5%
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2008, 02:54:17 AM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Well the rest of the country isn't as liberal as you, so why not take what you can get and be pragmatic about it?

And Franken and Martin are both "real Democrats" in most definitions of the word.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2008, 02:56:29 AM »
Quote from: Lunar on November 19, 2008, 02:54:17 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Well the rest of the country isn't as liberal as you, so why not take what you can get and be pragmatic about it?

And Franken and Martin are both "real Democrats" in most definitions of the word.

The pragmatic thing would be to hand the Chairmanship to someone who would actually perform. Of course Joe Lieberman should have been booted out of the caucus, too, but that was never going to happen, so DailyKos did the pragmatic thing and called for him to lose his Chairmanship.
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2008, 03:01:12 AM »
God, this has nothing to do with Lieberman.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2008, 03:37:06 AM »
The chances are very low.  MN is a coin toss.  As for GA, I just don't see it.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2008, 03:49:55 AM »
Another question: Are the chances now higher than they have ever been or were they higher when GA and KY seemed possible or even when MS seemed reasonable (but LA, CO, OR, NH etc were all less certain)?
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2008, 08:16:53 AM »
chance Franken wins recount: I'd say 65%

chance Martin defeats Chambliss: I'd say 5%

0.65 * 0.05 = 3,25%
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2008, 10:09:47 AM »
Quote from: Resident of Bill Ayers' America on November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)

His primary opponent was basically the old Zell Miller.

What about Begich?
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2008, 10:28:26 AM »
Quote from: Lunar on November 19, 2008, 02:29:54 AM
Personally, I give Franken about a 60% chance of winning and Martin a 25% chance, meaning the Democrats have about a 15% of hitting this completely meaningless barrier.

Agreed 100%. Martin has very little shot to win the run-off.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2008, 11:32:20 AM »
Franken wins: 65%
Martin wins: 10%


chance of both: 6.5%



Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 10:09:47 AM
Quote from: Resident of Bill Ayers' America on November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)

His primary opponent was basically the old Zell Miller.

Huh? Vernon Jones?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2008, 11:44:52 AM »
Quote from: Bacon King on November 19, 2008, 11:32:20 AM
Franken wins: 65%
Martin wins: 10%


chance of both: 6.5%



Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 10:09:47 AM
Quote from: Resident of Bill Ayers' America on November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)

His primary opponent was basically the old Zell Miller.

Huh? Vernon Jones?



Yeah.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2008, 12:47:05 PM »
20% (I'm feeling optimistic today)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2008, 01:19:28 PM »
Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 11:44:52 AM
Quote from: Bacon King on November 19, 2008, 11:32:20 AM
Franken wins: 65%
Martin wins: 10%


chance of both: 6.5%



Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 10:09:47 AM
Quote from: Resident of Bill Ayers' America on November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)

His primary opponent was basically the old Zell Miller.

Huh? Vernon Jones?



Yeah.

Lol, that's going to need an explanation.
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memphis
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« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2008, 02:35:05 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on November 19, 2008, 03:01:12 AM
God, this has nothing to do with Lieberman.

Without Lieberman the Dems have exactly 0% chance of getting to 60.
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benconstine
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« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2008, 03:55:03 PM »
3%.  I don't see us winning MN or GA at this point.
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Lunar
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« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2008, 05:02:29 PM »
Are you joking?

MN is a coinflip and national Republicans are getting increasingly pessimistic about it.  And I cited a professional study that argued that Franken's favored.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2008, 07:04:36 PM »
Quote from: Bacon King on November 19, 2008, 01:19:28 PM
Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 11:44:52 AM
Quote from: Bacon King on November 19, 2008, 11:32:20 AM
Franken wins: 65%
Martin wins: 10%


chance of both: 6.5%



Quote from: Attorney General Xahar on November 19, 2008, 10:09:47 AM
Quote from: Resident of Bill Ayers' America on November 19, 2008, 02:41:08 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 19, 2008, 02:32:46 AM
Oh sure, 60 "Democrats" sounds nice, but I'd prefer 41 real Democrats.

Franken is a real Democrat. So is Martin too from what I've heard (surprisingly.)

His primary opponent was basically the old Zell Miller.

Huh? Vernon Jones?



Yeah.

Lol, that's going to need an explanation.

Never mind. Didn't realize he was black.
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