Burris could win [re-]election

[Lunar]

http://www.suntimes.com/news/miller/1368945,CST-EDT-miller09.article

RICH MILLER  (the #1 Illinois reporter IMHO, he knows what he's talking about)


There's been a lot of talk lately that Roland Burris can't possibly win a full term if he's seated in the United States Senate.

I'm not 100 percent convinced, so please allow me a few contrarian thoughts.

The appointment of Burris by arrested, embattled and soon-to-be impeached Gov. Blagojevich has caused an intense racial firestorm in our state and our nation. The situation is almost approaching O.J. Simpson levels, and it's intensifying with every passing day.

A statewide poll taken this week by the Glengariff Group illustrates the racial divide. African-American voters in Illinois support the Burris appointment by a 67 percent to 21 percent. White voters opposition to the appointment is a similarly lopsided 58 percent to 26 percent.

Illinois Democrats are divided. But a plurality, 46 percent, favors the appointment while 41.5 percent oppose it, the poll found.

If Burris is seated as our state's next U.S. senator, he'll have to run for re-election in 2010. The Democratic primary is in early February of that year, less than 13 months from now.

Considering the racial hostility inflamed by this appointment, with U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush leading the charge by first warning against "lynching" Burris and then comparing the U.S. Senate leadership to old-time southern sheriffs, there is no way that a legitimate white Democratic opponent will announce against Burris anytime soon. Too risky.

Yes, there may be some early interest expressed by the usual white liberal suspects, but those people have never shown an ability to move too far up the ladder.

The top white Democratic prospects will have to lie low until the heat dies down. Time is money in politics, and every day that goes by will mean one less day that they can't raise cash.

A legit white opponent could eventually emerge. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias comes to mind.

Giannoulias, who has set his sights on the governor's office, would likely only run with the blessing of his mentor Barack Obama, however. Obama played a key role in the Senate's capitulation to Burris this week by privately urging Democratic leaders to just get it over with and seat the guy. And you better believe there will be pressure on Obama from African-American politicos to endorse Burris, or at least stay out of the 2010 race.

A Giannoulias/Obama win also assumes the emergence of only one major white candidate. There could be more. Comptroller Dan Hynes, for instance. More than one white candidate would immensely help Burris' primary chances.

Burris has become a national cause celebre, so he ought to be able to raise lots of early campaign money from African Americans throughout the country. And because 46 percent of Illinois Democrats support his appointment, the move wasn't as unpopular with his party as some (like me) assumed.

Then there's the general election. Democrats are in a pickle with voters right now -- Burris, Blagojevich, Todd Stroger, etc. -- but that doesn't mean Illinois voters automatically love Republicans.

Plus, what sort of Republican might emerge from a primary? If past experience dictates, it will be either a conservative who will repel general election voters, or a badly damaged moderate. And, remember, "moderate" is a term that can be easily twisted to "right-winger." Just ask Judy Baar Topinka.

The dynamic changes if Pat Quinn can persuade the General Assembly to call a snap special election after he is sworn in as governor. But I'm not so sure Quinn will be able to keep that promise. Legislative Democrats don't want to take the chance of a Republican winning the seat -- even if the chance is somewhat small.

Barring that prospect, Burris might just surprise everybody by winning in 2010. I wouldn't bet big money on it yet, but I wouldn't bet against him right now, either.

[TheresNoMoney]

As long as Burris himself is clean, then he would be the favorite in the 2010 election. Blago is the corrupt one, not Burris.

It's really hard for a Republican to win statewide in Illinois.

[Meeker]

I believe the correct term is "win retainment".

[/snob]

[© tweed]

isn't it assumed that he won't seek?

[Lunar]

isn't it assumed that he won't seek?

it was.  He offered to take the seat as a placeholder and resign in two years after the Blago scandal broke (I think, presumably for Pat Quinn to quickly appoint a black person without baggage and without offending existing factions who wanted the seat).  He certainly hasn't mentioned it once after he was picked and I doubt Blago requested it in order to have an open and competitive race in 2010 to ensure fairness.

[Keystone Phil]

I think it's certainly possible that this guy could be nominated in 2010. Just imagine if he's the only major black candidate. It might not even be that difficult. The General will be a totally different story. Yes, it'll be hard for the GOP to take it but if it's Kirk vs. Burris, we'd see a real battle.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

[Keystone Phil]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

And assuming Kirk will run is also a huge leap since he's only shown interest if he could do so without endangering his House seat.

[© tweed]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

[© tweed]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

but there could be like 57 white candidates and Burris wins with 4%

[Keystone Phil]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Bingo

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

Take a look at how many white candidates there were in that race. That certainly helped Obama.

[Boris]

How are you guys attempting to analyze this without polls? Are there any polls out on Burris' favorability with IL voters? Where the hell is Rassy when you need him?

[Stranger in a strange land]

While I believe Kirk could easily defeat Burris if the economy is still bad, I doubt Burris could be nominated. as the DSCC would probably clear the field for a strong challenger if it looked like Burris was in jeopardy of losing his seat. That said, given Burris's age and the workload of the senate compared to the comfortable retirement he was enjoying previously, he may opt not to run for reelection.

However, given the IL-GOP's track record, it's entirely possible that they wouldn't nominate Kirk at all and would instead throw the seat away by nominating a club-for-growther or a fundie.

[© tweed]

worst comes to worst, Obama can resign the presidency and run for this seat again come 2010.

[justfollowingtheelections]

It all depends on what he does in the Senate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

Take a look at how many white candidates there were in that race. That certainly helped Obama.

He still got over 50%, so that doesn't matter.

[Keystone Phil]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

Take a look at how many white candidates there were in that race. That certainly helped Obama.

He still got over 50%, so that doesn't matter.

In a primary full of less than mediocre white candidates (aside from Hynes).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.

If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.

...and any potential primary challenger.

but what if he's the only negro!

Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.

Take a look at how many white candidates there were in that race. That certainly helped Obama.

He still got over 50%, so that doesn't matter.

In a primary full of less than mediocre white candidates (aside from Hynes).

But even that's one non-mediocre white candidate, and he still got over 50%.

The point is pretty simple: As crowded as primaries can get, you're not going to win one with 25%. If Burris ends up so bad he could actually lose as a Democrat in Illinois (and btw this is only relevant if he runs where the odds aren't even 50/50), he's not going to get any higher than that. Nor is Kirk going to run if he sees any chance of losing, nor is Kirk even guaranteed the nomination if he does run, nor is Kirk even the favorite against Democrat, etc. Look elsewhere for a pickup, you need an absolutely best case scenario here.

[Ogre Mage]

Burris is a weak candidate.  The apex of his career was winning the Illinois attorney general's race in 1990, so he's proven he can win statewide.  Unfortunately, since then he has lost 3 races for governor (1994, 1998, 2002) and a race for mayor -- evidence that his standing among the IL electorate is now extremely weak.  At age 71, he won't be able to gather the needed seniority to become powerful in the Senate.  And he let himself be appointed by Pay-Rod, which is the equivalent of putting a political kick-me sign on his behind.

I find the author's assertion that Burris' potential candidacy will become a "national cause celebre" strange.  You could just as easily turn it around and say people will not want to donate money to a Pay-Rod appointee.

Nevertheless, Burris could win in a heavily DEM state like IL.  But an IL senate seat should be safe Dem and under Burris it won't be.  Maybe he will surprise us and be a great senator.  But based on the reports I've read, I doubt it.  As strangeland said, the DSCC would be wise to monitor this race very closely and act appropriately if necessary.  IL Dems will want to clean house before the GOP does it for them.