MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[cinyc]

The big news of the day is that the infamous precinct 1460 in Hennepin has been dropped from the recount results while the Franken people look for the "lost" ballots (undoubtedly in the same way OJ looked for the "real" killer).

That's pretty much all of the results change except for a ton of pointless challenges (more from Franken than from Coleman) in Wright County.  And we thought challenges without a hope were done with... 

That makes sense, given Wright County is one of the most Republican in the state.  Coleman lead Franken by 17.44 points in the initial count.   There's less for Coleman to challenge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wright County is a sh!thole. It's a frequent laughingstock of Minneapolitians. Thank God so much of the filth that infest there got foreclosed and now lots of newly-built subdivisions have been transformed in virtual ghost towns. Serves those dipsh!ts right for taking subprime loans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actually, Franken is up more than 10.  I believe the number is 27 and that number is solid.  Nate Silver said so.

That's getting fairly annoying.  He's changed some time ago to show Coleman leading. 

Why would The Almighty have to change a prediction?

So the prediction eventually converges to the correct one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between.  Why wouldn't Coleman dispute it to hurt Franken's partisans and stop Franken's money from flowing though?  Coleman's campaign has been oddly silent on the matter.

Because then it lends some credibility to Franken's.  Dude's just flailing in the water.

[emailking]

If you actually read Nate's "prediction" of 27 votes, you will, see he clearly stated that the error bars were large and there was a good chance Coleman could win. This is also the case with his latest predictions...the error bars being the hundreds of votes. Thus he originally said Franken was a slight favorite and now says Coleman is a slight favorite. It's no different than a poll that puts a candidate ahead 1 or 2 points with a 3-4 point MOE.

[cinyc]

Wright County is a sh!thole. It's a frequent laughingstock of Minneapolitians. Thank God so much of the filth that infest there got foreclosed and now lots of newly-built subdivisions have been transformed in virtual ghost towns. Serves those dipsh!ts right for taking subprime loans.

I'm sick of this suburban bad, urban good crap.  If Wright County is such a bad place, why are people moving there?   And why are people fleeing places like Ramsey County?

People like to live where they like to live.  A place isn't good or bad just because you don't like to live that way.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Idiots who thought they could afford disgustingly big houses. Oops.

Minneapolis is now gaining population. Myself being one of the 2008 additions.

[Lunar]

Wright County is a sh!thole. It's a frequent laughingstock of Minneapolitians. Thank God so much of the filth that infest there got foreclosed and now lots of newly-built subdivisions have been transformed in virtual ghost towns. Serves those dipsh!ts right for taking subprime loans.

I'm sick of this suburban bad, urban good crap.  If Wright County is such a bad place, why are people moving there?   And why are people fleeing places like Ramsey County?

People like to live where they like to live.  A place isn't good or bad just because you don't like to live that way.

suburban=bad, urban=good is a fundamental to BRTD's philosophy and thinking.  Might as well get over your sickness.

I'm inclined to agree with him, although for vastly different reasons and less passion. 

[cinyc]

Idiots who thought they could afford disgustingly big houses. Oops.

Minneapolis is now gaining population. Myself being one of the 2008 additions.

As opposed to the idiots in North Minneapolis who thought they could afford an overpriced house.  Oops!   There were idiots there too!  Probably more of them in absolute numbers than any other county in Minnesota.

People have different lifestyles and housing wants and needs.  "Liberals" are supposed to be tolerant of that.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, Franken is up more than 10.  I believe the number is 27 and that number is solid.  Nate Silver said so.

That's getting fairly annoying.  He's changed some time ago to show Coleman leading. 

Why would The Almighty have to change a prediction?

Because, as he made very very clear in the posts including the first two stat analyses the tied one and the Franken by 27 one), they were relying on a lot of untested assumptions - had to - parallels with other recounts using similar but, sadly, not identical rules and ballot designs. Minnesota's first count happens to be more accurate and less Republican-biased than the ones from which the data came.

[minionofmidas]

If I know anything about politics, the truth of the matter lies here:  Coleman is ahead nearly all methods of counting, but if all the breaks fall Franken's way in terms of challenges (not to mention the lost ballots), they lead by 10.

Probably need to amend that to say something like "all the breaks that realistically could"  (if *all* the challenges were decided Opebo-style, he'd be winning by far more) but otherwise I agree.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually, Franken is up more than 10.  I believe the number is 27 and that number is solid.  Nate Silver said so.

That's getting fairly annoying.  He's changed some time ago to show Coleman leading. 

Why would The Almighty have to change a prediction?

So the prediction eventually converges to the correct one.

Bingo

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

No one has ever claimed Silver is a genius at long-term predicting, Phil. Stop claiming otherwise.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

No one has ever claimed Silver is a genius at long-term predicting, Phil. Stop claiming otherwise.

LOL

As if people here having been singing his praises for months. Give me a break!

[Meeker]

I don't really see how him changing his prediction as more data becomes available is any different than one of us changing our Prediction Maps as more polling becomes available.

So then let's stop hailing him as some extraordinary genius with amazing predicting skills. Predictions become lose all value when you are able to revise them several times.

No one has ever claimed Silver is a genius at long-term predicting, Phil. Stop claiming otherwise.

LOL

As if people here having been singing his praises for months. Give me a break!

Sigh... Phil, you're letting your irrational anger at him cloud your judgment.

No one has ever credited Silver with being good at forecasting what would happen in a week or a months time. What he is good at is analyzing the data that is currently presented to him. That's why he's so respected - not for being a psychic with a crystal ball.

[Alcon]

Silver created a model that adjusts itself as new data comes in.

It's not like he's even drastically changing his model mid-flight.

I'd rather have a dynamic prediction than one that's going for prestige, myself,

But whatever.

[Keystone Phil]

Sigh... Phil, you're letting your irrational anger at him cloud your judgment.

I think I've stated about three times now that my problem isn't with him but with the idiot that adore him.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh huh. I'm sure you guys didn't get all excited when His Highness said Franken by eighteen votes.

[Meeker]

No one has ever credited Silver with being good at forecasting what would happen in a week or a months time. What he is good at is analyzing the data that is currently presented to him. That's why he's so respected - not for being a psychic with a crystal ball.

Uh huh. I'm sure you guys didn't get all excited when His Highness said Franken by eighteen votes.

Again Phil, at the time that's what the data suggested. The data changed, and thus the prediction changed.

And if you truly don't have a problem with Silver then the constant sarcasm and mocking of him is a rather bizarre way to show it.

[Keystone Phil]

And if you truly don't have a problem with Silver then the constant sarcasm and mocking of him is a rather bizarre way to show it.

Mocking. The. Way. His. Admirers. Act.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Idiots who thought they could afford disgustingly big houses. Oops.

Minneapolis is now gaining population. Myself being one of the 2008 additions.

As opposed to the idiots in North Minneapolis who thought they could afford an overpriced house.  Oops!   There were idiots there too!  Probably more of them in absolute numbers than any other county in Minnesota.

People have different lifestyles and housing wants and needs.  "Liberals" are supposed to be tolerant of that.

North Minneapolis is the ghetto. It's NOT the place that attracts the types looking to raise their family in a too big overpriced house.

Sigh... Phil, you're letting your irrational anger at him cloud your judgment.

I think I've stated about three times now that my problem isn't with him but with the idiot that adore him.

We all know when your hatred of him began: When people started saying they didn't care about your worthless anecdotal evidence and trusted him giving Obama an >80% chance of winning Pennsylvania. Well who was more right?

[Lunar]

And if you truly don't have a problem with Silver then the constant sarcasm and mocking of him is a rather bizarre way to show it.

Mocking. The. Way. His. Admirers. Act.

In this thread it's mostly BRTD that adores him and then sarcastic comments by you for the rest:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88765.0

Where are you getting this from dude.  Your sarcastic, repetitive assertions about the way his supporters act greatly outnumbers his supporters, and should tell you something about yourself

[Keystone Phil]

We all know when your hatred of him began: When people started saying they didn't care about your worthless anecdotal evidence and trusted him giving Obama an >80% chance of winning Pennsylvania. Well who was more right?

Ah, yes, of course. You're right again! When will your streak end?

And if you truly don't have a problem with Silver then the constant sarcasm and mocking of him is a rather bizarre way to show it.

Mocking. The. Way. His. Admirers. Act.

In this thread it's mostly BRTD that adores him and then sarcastic comments by you for the rest:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88765.0

Where are you getting this from dude

One thread. One. The forum Dems/Obama fanatics have bowed at his altar for months.

[Lunar]

Uh, it's the thread in question.   You're making stupid remarks about how we all worshiped his 27 number when it's clear that we didn't.