MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Meeker]

It seemed to be city by city in alphabetical order. And they were only on the C's when they called it a day. Only on the C's of the Franken challenges.

They then proceeded to bitch out the Franken and Coleman lawyers about getting rid of frivolous challenges, but unless something really remarkable happens I don't see how they can possibly be done by Friday.

EDIT: They were on the C's in Hennepin County. So they did actually get a good chunk of the alphabet done today.

[Sam Spade]

Didn't they go through the ballots county by county in alphabetical order?

Yes.  They count the Franken challenges first I think (not withdrawn) However, there are always complications.  For example, within the first 200 Franken challenges, 10 of the challenges were actually Coleman challenges.  Annoying.

Which is why I'm asking the above question.  Though truthfully, if I had the time, I'd figure it out myself - the Star Tribune finally made it possible today (and someone with the time should be able to).

Whatever.  I do hope the little sexual pervert gets what's coming to him, but I can't say that I'm anywhere near sure it'll actually happen.

[Holmes]

Now's the chance to buy some Coleman intrade, hopefuls!

[© tweed]

Franken now up 70-30 on Intrade.

[Ronnie]

Franken now up 70-30 on Intrade.

Intrade means nothing.  Coleman was once up 80-20.

That said, stick a fork in Coleman, but don't rely on Intrade to make any projections.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'd be really awesome if Franken was declared the winner on my birthday.

[Franzl]

Franken now up 70-30 on Intrade.

excellent, I bought 25 Franken shares at 35 on Intrade.....that means if I can find a buyer right now, I win about $87.

scratch that, Coleman has gained ground again......not sure if I want to sell for 62.....

[Sarnstrom]

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has done their own analysis of the ballots and is predicting Franken to win by 174 votes: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/

[emailking]

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has done their own analysis of the ballots and is predicting Franken to win by 174 votes: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/

It was 193 when I clicked. Isn't this more of a group conclusion from (possibly biased) readers who go through them all, rather than an analysis by the paper?

[Verily]

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has done their own analysis of the ballots and is predicting Franken to win by 174 votes: http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/

It was 193 when I clicked. Isn't this more of a group conclusion from (possibly biased) readers who go through them all, rather than an analysis by the paper?

I'm pretty sure they had something separate where the site members went through the ballots. But maybe it's the same thing. I'm pretty sure it's based on extrapolating the current numbers, though; it's changing too fast to be anything else.

The STrib is currently projecting Franken by 209, for what it's worth. The first batch of Coleman challenges has come in, though, and it shows really good numbers for Coleman. Although it's only a handful of ballots and so may be highly unrepresentative.

[Franzl]

Star Tribune says this ballot was ruled invalid? Really? There's a similar one just like that for Coleman that was supposedly thrown out.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/media/ballotPDFs/Bloomington_P7_challengedballot1.pdf

[Sam Spade]

The few Coleman challenges are actually challenges in the Franken pile (which is kind of odd, probably an administrative screw-up).  Like I said before, without any idea how these votes were determined by county administrators "either in the original count" or "in the recount" (the original count would be slightly more useful), we can't really start to predict how the thing is going.  It would, of course, also help to know the contents of the votes that aren't being challenged.

Like I said, someone with time to waste today and my challenge spreadsheet could probably figure out where we are with reasonable accuracy.  I'd do it, but I don't have time.

The Strib ballot challenge are results from readers or internet denizens who've chosen to vote on the ballots.  It is, of course, not scientific - it may be accurate or not.  Caveat emptor.

[Eraserhead]

Will this end at some point in this century?

[Holmes]

The Coleman court challenge can be watched here: http://theuptake.org/.

They'll make a decision in 10 minutes... but I'll be on the way to the dentist.

[© tweed]

It'd be really awesome if Franken was declared the winner on my birthday.

you could have gotten some long odds on that back on November 3rd.

[Lunar]

The judges don't seem to be very strict

[Lunar]

The Minnesota Supreme Court just finished hearing arguments on Norm Coleman's lawsuit to stop the counting of ballots that are found to have been rejected due to clerical errors, and here's the deal: It didn't look great for Coleman.

Things started off on the wrong foot for Coleman's attorney Roger Magnuson right when he opened with political sloganeering, saying that the state canvassing board had "accepted an invitation to Florida in 2008." He was immediately interrupted by justices telling him that this is not Florida, and they don't need to be told about Florida. Things only went downhill from there.

Franken's lawyer William Pentelovitch got his share of rough questions, but they were generally of a different character -- that is, asking him to explore various ramifications of his arguments and to answer objections to them, rather than direct attacks on his entire logical underpinnings. Only one justice of the five hearing the case, Lorie Skjerven Gildea, was outright hostile to him.

If we're going entirely by which campaign had a harder time with the judge's questions -- which can often be true, but is far from being a perfect predictor -- Coleman would have to be considered the underdog in winning this lawsuit. But surprises can still definitely happen.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/coleman_camp_gets_roughed_up_b.php

[Ronnie]

I'm depressed.  This is the one race that I wanted to win, but ended up losing it.  This sucks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

[Ronnie]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

Dunno if I'm the first person to ask this, but why didn't you vote for Franken?

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

Dunno if I'm the first person to ask this, but why didn't you vote for Franken?

He did. ILV didn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

Dunno if I'm the first person to ask this, but why didn't you vote for Franken?

I proudly voted for Franken. I also have one of his bumper stickers on my car.

[Ronnie]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

Dunno if I'm the first person to ask this, but why didn't you vote for Franken?

I proudly voted for Franken. I also have one of his bumper stickers on my car.

Then for which office was this?: "I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea"

[ilikeverin]

I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea.

Dunno if I'm the first person to ask this, but why didn't you vote for Franken?

I proudly voted for Franken. I also have one of his bumper stickers on my car.

Then for which office was this?: "I'm proud that I voted for Bill Ayers as a write-in over Lorie Skjerven Gildea"

State Supreme Court.

[Lunar]

Ok I've decided that I'm more interested in finding out Sam's super mega secret and making him grumpy enough to become an official Republican than I am against Franken, so I've switched my internet support the (D).