MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[agcatter]

Thank God the recount is finally 100% completed. 

Expect a news conference by Franken's lawyers within the hour announcing that Franken has finished  in the lead.  I feel sure they will announce that the lead is - -- exactly 27 votes.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Thank God the recount is finally 100% completed. 

Expect a news conference by Franken's lawyers within the hour announcing that Franken has finished  in the lead.  I feel sure they will announce that the lead is - -- exactly 27 votes.

[Sam Spade]

Except for precinct 1460 in Minneapolis and the challenged ballots, the recount is over.  Star Tribune has it at Coleman +235, but they still include precinct 1460 in their numbers, so really it's Coleman +189 (iirc).  It's down slightly from last night probably because Franken has been closing the challenge gap in Scott and Wright.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/35607614.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUs

Also, a list of the Franken withdrawn challenges is now available on the SOS's website.  I will peruse this later on if I have the time.

[Lunar]

Anyway, that 133 votes is heating up.  Apparently they know the exact envelope that's missing and the envelope possesses a Franken +37 margin.  Election officials are debating about just using the election-night totals for that precinct instead of the recount.

[Lunar]

And you thought Democrats couldn't steal an election.
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/12/05/moreballotsfound/


During their search this morning in a Minneapolis warehouse, they found a thin plastic bag that contains about 10 uncounted overseas military ballots from another precinct.

Minneapolis elections director Cindy Reichert says it's "clear the ballots were mishandled."

[Holmes]

Well, if those 10 ballots all belong to one candidate, then thei definition of mishandled differs from mine.

[Lunar]

Franken's team declares they are 4 votes ahead if the missing envelope is found (not sure if it includes the most recent plastic bag warehouse votes) and every challenges is rejected.

[Rococo4]

startribune says +192 coleman now

[Verily]

Franken's team declares they are 4 votes ahead if the missing envelope is found (not sure if it includes the most recent plastic bag warehouse votes) and every challenges is rejected.

Coleman has 95 more challenges than Franken, the missing ballots are +37 Franken. Even if all ten of these military ballots are for Franken, that's only a net of 142 votes for Franken; he's behind by somewhere around 200.

But there are enough challenges that they only need to break slightly more strongly for Franken than the equivalent of none counting for him to win. Still Coleman favored with about 80% odds, I think.

[Хahar 🤔]

Phil needs to shut up.

[Joe Republic]

Phil needs to shut up.

43 posts a day.

[Lunar]

Franken's team declares they are 4 votes ahead if the missing envelope is found (not sure if it includes the most recent plastic bag warehouse votes) and every challenges is rejected.

Coleman has 95 more challenges than Franken, the missing ballots are +37 Franken. Even if all ten of these military ballots are for Franken, that's only a net of 142 votes for Franken; he's behind by somewhere around 200.

Not so quick there.  Not all challenges were created equal.  If Franken challenges more ballots that were initially ruled invalid (a decent chance), then his challenges don't become Coleman votes.  These challenges aren't all Franken or Coleman votes that were initially ruled for the other guy. 

[Keystone Phil]

Uh, it's the thread in question.   You're making stupid remarks about how we all worshiped his 27 number when it's clear that we didn't.

There is a severe punishment for those that don't agree all the time with The Chosen One.

Phil needs to shut up.

43 posts a day.

Joe is amazing.

[agcatter]

My understanding is that the 10 ballots found today are overseas military ballots.  Just a hunch, but if those ballots are included (and I have no idea if the canvasing board would include them) I'm pretty sure they won't help Franken.  Like I said, just a hunch.

[Ronnie]

Final recount numbers:

Coleman + 192

Is this a good position for him to be in?

[Lunar]

Using Sam's methodology, Coleman still has breathing room.  I'm less confident.  Does that number include election-night totals for those missing ballots?  I assume it does.

Franken could scrap together a few more votes too if he can get those absentee ballots counted.

It will come down to who has the better challenges and what types of ballots are challenged more often (were they initially ruled as vote or a no-vote on election night?).

[Keystone Phil]

Nate Silver just said that the person with the most votes after the counting and challenges will be elected Senator. You heard it here first.

[Torie]

Nate Silver just said that the person with the most votes after the counting and challenges will be elected Senator. You heard it here first.

After you get a couple of statistics courses under  your belt Phil, you will grow to love Nate. You are going to take a couple in college aren't you?  It is a big mistake if you miss the opportunity. A lot of stuff out there these days is statistical jargon, some legit, and some BS, and not learning the lore of the craft kind of leaves one out in the cold on a lot of interesting stuff.

[Sam Spade]

Using Sam's methodology, Coleman still has breathing room.  I'm less confident.  Does that number include election-night totals for those missing ballots?  I assume it does.

Yes it does.  If the ballots end up "still missing", you can subtract 79 from Franken and 35 from Coleman (there were two challenges that looked like a challenge of another ballot)

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Based on what the ST has produced so far, there seems to be no reason to doubt that these things:
 
1) The vast majority of Challenge Gap challenges consists of votes ruled as valid both in the original count and in the recount (i.e Franken challenging Coleman and vice versa). 

The minor quandry in the Challenge Gap:  Relatively speaking, a few ballots in the Challenge Gap will undoubtedly constitute votes ruled as valid in the original count, but not in the recount (i.e. Franken challenging Franken-subtracted votes and vice versa).  My numbers of where I can discern this is the case indicate that these break pretty evenly.  Whether their success will is another question.

2) The vast majority of Non-subtracted Challenges consist of votes not ruled as valid both in the original count and in the recount (blank votes, overvotes, heck, voters of third-parties)

The minor quandry in the Non-Subtracted Challenges:  Relatively speaking, a few ballots in the Non-Subtracted Challenges will undoubtedly constitute votes ruled as invalid in the original count, but ruled as valid in the recount and challenged as valid by the opposing party (Coleman challenging Franken addition and vice versa).  It is literally impossible to discern where this is the case, actually.

And the quality of the challenges - who knows?  I see no great difference, but maybe the other ballots are different.

[Хahar 🤔]

Phil needs to shut up.

43 posts a day.

I'm a hypocrite.

[Sam Spade]

Precinct to Be Completed
Hennepin - Precinct 1460 (went Franken 1090, Coleman 595, Others 280 in the original count)
Update (Using My Method) (does not include the 633 withdrawn Franken challenges or 650 withdrawn Coleman challenges)

SOS
Coleman: 1,208,344 (1,210,995)
Franken: 1,207,657 (1,210,285)
Coleman: +192 (+215)

Actual Changes (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman: +171 (+74)
Franken: +257 (+139)
Total Change: Franken +86 (Franken +65)

Challenge Gap (With Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman (CH by Franken): -2822 (-2725)
Franken (CH by Coleman): -2885 (-2767)
Total Gap: Franken +63 (Franken +42)

Non-Subtracted Challenges
Coleman: 573
Franken: 489

Total (With Challenge Gap Included, Assumptions in Parentheses)
Coleman +129 (Coleman +150)
When I get some time, I'll recheck my numbers on certain things (like non-subtracted challenges and assumptions) where there may be minor errors.

I also may go over the withdrawn challenges too.

[Tender Branson]

If everything fails, wouldn't it be entertaining to see Coleman & Franken duel in the classic way ?

[opebo]

If everything fails, wouldn't it be entertaining to see Coleman & Franken duel in the classic way ?

Heheh, a 'swordfight'?  If you know what I mean..

[ChrisFromNJ]

The Tribune has 2,633 of 6,655 of the actual challenged ballots on their website for viewers to vote on to determine intent. I haven't had a chance to look at any of them , but if the reader reported results are any indication, Norm Coleman is in a world of trouble.

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/

[Lunar]

What do you guys think?