MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Verily]

FRANKEN WINS AT COURT

The absentee ballots will be counted, as will the 133 ballots left out of the recount (but included in the original count. IIRC, the latter is a net +37 for Franken, or something like it. The absentee ballots could give any result at all; there are about 1,500 of them.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Franken back up to 47.9 to win.

[Lief]

Er... don't Republicans normally win absentee ballots?

[CultureKing]

FRANKEN WINS AT COURT

The absentee ballots will be counted, as will the 133 ballots left out of the recount (but included in the original count. IIRC, the latter is a net +37 for Franken, or something like it. The absentee ballots could give any result at all; there are about 1,500 of them.

The absentee ballots are a big deal. This is Franken's last ray of hope.

Er... don't Republicans normally win absentee ballots?

I think democrats usually do, especially since these are ones that have some sort of mistake on them (and for some reason democrats seem to make more mistakes than republicans when voting).

[Iosif]

I've changed my mind. I really want Franken to win now.

It would be hilarious.

[Verily]

Er... don't Republicans normally win absentee ballots?

Yes, but not necessarily this year (at least, not on the Presidential level). It varies heavily from state to state, of course, too, with some states such as Florida heavily Republican and others more Democratic than the state average.

But the key point is that these are absentee ballots which were rejected--typically, the votes of those who haven't voted absentee before, so a lot of college students and new voters; as well as the votes of those who tend to make mistakes while voting, which also tend to be Democrats (thus provisional ballots always going Democratic).

But I am skeptical that the 1,500 or so ballots will give Franken more than 50 or so net votes, if he gains anything at all from them. Still, it may put him that much closer to closing on the challenges.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The fact that these decisions were unanimous makes me wonder if Coleman is telling the Republicans on the board to vote in Franken's favor and basically trying to throw the election. As MW08 pointed out right before the election, Coleman is probably better off losing from a legal perspective (much like Bill Jefferson would've been if he had lost in '04.)

[Sam Spade]

FRANKEN WINS AT COURT

The absentee ballots will be counted, as will the 133 ballots left out of the recount (but included in the original count. IIRC, the latter is a net +37 for Franken, or something like it. The absentee ballots could give any result at all; there are about 1,500 of them.

If you're referring to the *lost* ballots, it merely ensures that the numbers stay the same.  Franken doesn't gain anything, he just doesn't lose anything.

[Verily]

FRANKEN WINS AT COURT

The absentee ballots will be counted, as will the 133 ballots left out of the recount (but included in the original count. IIRC, the latter is a net +37 for Franken, or something like it. The absentee ballots could give any result at all; there are about 1,500 of them.

If you're referring to the *lost* ballots, it merely ensures that the numbers stay the same.  Franken doesn't gain anything, he just doesn't lose anything.

I thought the official numbers were still omitting those ballots in their recount. If not, then yes, he gains nothing.

[emailking]

It's just a recommendation that the absentee ballots be counted. They acknowledged the counties cannot be forced to do it.

[Ronnie]

I always knew Franken would win this thing.

Moving on...

[Verily]

It's just a recommendation that the absentee ballots be counted. They acknowledged the counties cannot be forced to do it.

Of course, one would imagine every county would want to count them. After all, if you're a Republican county, your ballots probably favor Coleman; if you're a Democratic county, your ballots probably favor Franken. To refuse to count your county's ballots would be to hurt your favored candidate. (Assuming that there are no or very few counties with local governments radically different from their national voting patterns.)

[So the Heroes Fall]

County governments are non-partisan,

[emailking]

It's just a recommendation that the absentee ballots be counted. They acknowledged the counties cannot be forced to do it.

Of course, one would imagine every county would want to count them. After all, if you're a Republican county, your ballots probably favor Coleman; if you're a Democratic county, your ballots probably favor Franken. To refuse to count your county's ballots would be to hurt your favored candidate. (Assuming that there are no or very few counties with local governments radically different from their national voting patterns.)

But before some of the counties were refusing to address the issue while others were doing it voluntarily. Ramsey counted wouldn't count them, for example. I think the logic of the officials is that they have already done their job with the absentee ballots and that should be it? Perhaps it will change now, but I don't know what's different really.

[Rococo4]

this thing has been dragging on too long

[Vasall des Midas]

But the key point is that these are absentee ballots which were rejected--typically, the votes of those who haven't voted absentee before, so a lot of college students and new voters; as well as the votes of those who tend to make mistakes while voting, which also tend to be Democrats

This is Minnesota so it probably doesn't apply here, but one would assume a sizable chunk of military (non-commissioned) votes among absentees with errors.

(thus provisional ballots always going Democratic).

Not in every state. Not in Alaska, for instance. It sort of depends what categories of potential voters, exactly, cast provisional votes: on the state of the voter register itself, on whether there are rules allowing people to cast a provisional vote at the wrong precinct, etc.

[Former Moderate]

County governments are non-partisan,

Nobody is really non-partisan.

[Ronnie]

I think now we can almost safely say Al Franken is the senator-elect.

I think...

[Vasall des Midas]

No. The chances rose, but they're still probably under 50%.

Not that the decision is surprising, of course - simply because it's essentially dictated by common sense.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

This thing is taking more than in Italy-and it's really saying something...

[President Marokai]

Unfortunately Coleman is still trying to pull a Bush-2000 in court.

[Torie]

Unfortunately Coleman is still trying to pull a Bush-2000 in court.

Having some counties re-review rejected absentee ballots and not others is a dog that won't hunt. This should be resolved in court.

[Χahar]

This is excellent news. I had all but reconciled myself to loss.

[President Marokai]

Unfortunately Coleman is still trying to pull a Bush-2000 in court.

Having some counties re-review rejected absentee ballots and not others is a dog that won't hunt. This should be resolved in court.

"Resolved" is just a code word for "halt as soon as possible." Coleman has made no secret about wanting to stop this recount, even from happening in the first place.

[Ronnie]

No. The chances rose, but they're still probably under 50%.

Not anymore.

This is excellent news. I had all but reconciled myself to loss.

It was inevitable and you know it.