LA-04/SurveyUSA: Fleming (R) leads Carmouche (D) by only 2 points
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  LA-04/SurveyUSA: Fleming (R) leads Carmouche (D) by only 2 points
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Author Topic: LA-04/SurveyUSA: Fleming (R) leads Carmouche (D) by only 2 points  (Read 2120 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 20, 2008, 01:55:23 AM »

Fleming - 47
Carmouche - 45
Kelley (I) - 3
Bowen (I) - 1

Turn-out in a stand-alone special election, where there are not other contests on the ballot to draw voters to the polls, is uniquely difficult to forecast. If black turn-out is 24%, it's Fleming 48%, Carmouche 43%. If black turn-out is 30%, it's Carmouche 46%, Fleming 45%. Fleming has a Plus 13 Favorability. Carmouche has a Plus 16 Favorability. Barack Obama has Net Zero Favorability. 44% approve of the job President Bush is doing. 14% approve of the job the US Congress is doing.

900 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 11/17/08 and 11/18/08, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 648 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the December 4 election.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b5ea35c6-a0a0-4f6c-93ef-c5c02dec336d
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Ronnie
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2008, 01:59:25 AM »

I give an edge to Fleming in this one.  It's hard to conceive black turnout being more than 25%.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2008, 06:19:37 AM »

I've had an eye on that one for a long time. Election not being held on election day might actually help Carmouche, Black turnout issues notwithstanding.
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