Bulgarian election maps

[GMantis]

I've made two maps of the 2005 Bulgarian parliamentary elections by provinces and municipialities respectively. I might make some more if there is interest. They use the same map key as the Atlas, with red for BSP, blue for NMSS, yellow for MRF and green for BNU (and teal for the DBS, but I doubt anyone will find that municipality).





Looking at the second, it is really regretfull that Bulgaria doesn't use a single district first past the post election system.

2021 edit:
Due to copyright concerns, older images are no longer displayed directly in the forum. For this reason, the maps of the parliamentary, presidential and European parliamentary elections have been re-posted on page three.

[GMantis]

so the turkish minority can be seen on map nicely

The MRF also got also a large percentage of the vote of the Muslim Bulgarians (Pomaks), especially those living in the Western Rhodopes ( the yellow blot in the Southwest). And they also received a significant part of Gypsy voters, especially the Muslim ones.
Additionally, the MRF won in municipalities with only a minority Turkish population, due to the Turks higher turnout, block voting and the splitting of the other votes between multiple parties.

[big bad fab]

Very interesting.
We want more !

[Hash]

Any chance for a EU 2007 map and a 2001 one?

[GMantis]

2007 European elections:



The map key is the same, but blue is used for GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) and green for the Ataka party.
The turnout was very low, with the exception of Turkish voters where the MRF turned out the vote by various legal and illegal methods and achieved this stunning result (the splitting of Bulgarian voters between different parties also helped). The MRF also was very strong in areas where they have major business interests, probably by a combination of intimidation and financial benefit. They were also very successful in Pomak and Gypsy areas.
Here is an ethnic map of Bulgaria, for comparison (there is a small mistake - the Asenovgrad municipality has a Bulgarian, not a Turkish majority).
http://lazarus.elte.hu/hun/maps/ke2500.gif

[minionofmidas]

2007

Damn, so close to an actual plurality. Now that would have been cool!

[GMantis]

2007

Damn, so close to an actual plurality. Now that would have been cool!

Early election results and exit polls did show the MRF ahead, but they fell behind latter. Of course, this wouldn't have happened if the turnout wasn't so abysmal - just 28%.

[minionofmidas]

2007

Damn, so close to an actual plurality. Now that would have been cool!

Early election results and exit polls did show the MRF ahead, but they fell behind latter. Of course, this wouldn't have happened if the turnout wasn't so abysmal - just 28%.

Yeah - the MRF still got about 85% of its 2005 vote total. If the ethnic Bulgarian vote had been just a tiniest bit more splintered...
 
On a side note - comparing the province maps to the municipal maps, it looks as if there's something of a gerrymander effort in this province boundaries, trying to keep the number of Turkish-dominated provinces at just two, or maybe two to three. (Obviously, this would be a not wholly succesful gerrymander in 2005, and a horribly backfired gerrymander in 2007. If these were fptp provincial election results, that is.) There tends to be a fringe of Turkish municipalities just outside the Turkish provinces, and the Pomak Country is horribly split.
There any reality to that perception?

[GMantis]

2007

Damn, so close to an actual plurality. Now that would have been cool!

Early election results and exit polls did show the MRF ahead, but they fell behind latter. Of course, this wouldn't have happened if the turnout wasn't so abysmal - just 28%.

Yeah - the MRF still got about 85% of its 2005 vote total. If the ethnic Bulgarian vote had been just a tiniest bit more splintered...
 
On a side note - comparing the province maps to the municipal maps, it looks as if there's something of a gerrymander effort in this province boundaries, trying to keep the number of Turkish-dominated provinces at just two, or maybe two to three. (Obviously, this would be a not wholly successful gerrymander in 2005, and a horribly backfired gerrymander in 2007. If these were fptp provincial election results, that is.) There tends to be a fringe of Turkish municipalities just outside the Turkish provinces, and the Pomak Country is horribly split.
There any reality to that perception?

Not really. It should be noted that the Turkish municipalities are mostly rural and therefore have small populations, while the more urban municipalities - which have a much bigger population - are usually majority Bulgarian.
This means that if the principle that each province should have a large city as its center is observed (and it is observed), there couldn't be more than two, at most three Turkish-dominated provinces. There are actually two - one with an absolute and one with a relative Turkish majority (Kardzhali and Razgrad): http://www.nsi.bg/Census_e/Ethnos.htm.
The Pomaks are a more complicated question. They're not a homogeneous group. The ones living in the Western Rhodopes - in western Blagoevgrad, southern Pazardzhik and eastern Smolyan province - are very religious, consider themselves Turks (even though many can't speak the language) and vote for the MRF. The ones living in the Central Rhodopes - the rest of Smolyan province, where they form a majority - are not very religious, consider themselves Bulgarians and don't vote for the MRF (though the MRF has been making inroads in the last two elections). The divisions of their areas have a long history and are mainly founded on the fact that Blagoevgrad province (also called Pirin Macedonia) has always been considered a separate area from the Rhodope mountains.
There have been some shifts of municipalities from one province to another recently, but not in the direction you suggested. For example, the most Bulgarian municipality of Kardzhali was moved to Hazkovo, making Kardzhali even more Turkish. Compare changes here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgaria#Provinces_and_municipalities
http://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/Административно_деление_на_България#.D0.9E.D0.BA.D1.80.D1.8A.D0.B7.D0.B8_1959-1987

[minionofmidas]

There have been some shifts of municipalities from one province to another recently, but not in the direction you suggested. For example, the most Bulgarian municipality of Kardzhali was moved to Hazkovo, making Kardzhali even more Turkish.

Actually, that is a change in the direction I suggested. It's a change to reduce the number of ethnic Bulgarians who have their politics dominated by Turks.
How Bulgarian is the place compared to the remainder of Hazkovo?

It should be noted that the Turkish municipalities are mostly rural and therefore have small populations, while the more urban municipalities - which have a much bigger population - are usually majority Bulgarian.

Makes sense. Of course, one might still try to shift as many heavily Turkish municipalities as possible to the "Turkish" provinces, but...

[GMantis]

There have been some shifts of municipalities from one province to another recently, but not in the direction you suggested. For example, the most Bulgarian municipality of Kardzhali was moved to Hazkovo, making Kardzhali even more Turkish.

Actually, that is a change in the direction I suggested. It's a change to reduce the number of ethnic Bulgarians who have their politics dominated by Turks.
How Bulgarian is the place compared to the remainder of Hazkovo?

It's more Bulgarian (nearly 90%) and yes, I think that it was moved for this reason.

It should be noted that the Turkish municipalities are mostly rural and therefore have small populations, while the more urban municipalities - which have a much bigger population - are usually majority Bulgarian.

Makes sense. Of course, one might still try to shift as many heavily Turkish municipalities as possible to the "Turkish" provinces, but...

This reminds me that between 1987 and 1999 there were only 9 very large provinces:

In this configuration, there are of course no Turkish dominated provinces, but I don't think this was the main reason for the change.

[minionofmidas]

This reminds me that between 1987 and 1999 there were only 9 very large provinces

Yes. That's the map in my printed atlas.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wasn't the Bulgarian communist party trying to stay in power by whipping up anti-Turkish sentiment at the time?
It might not have been the only or the main reason... but I suppose it played a role. Of course, I really should look at a pre-87 map before shooting my mouth off.

[GMantis]

This reminds me that between 1987 and 1999 there were only 9 very large provinces

Yes. That's the map in my printed atlas.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wasn't the Bulgarian communist party trying to stay in power by whipping up anti-Turkish sentiment at the time?
It might not have been the only or the main reason... but I suppose it played a role. Of course, I really should look at a pre-87 map before shooting my mouth off.

The pre-1987 provinces are almost the same as the current ones - only they were then called Okrag (pl: Okrazi) and now they are called Oblast (pl: Oblasti) - the name of the 1987-1999 provinces:

I think there were only five changes between the two configurations: a municipality was moved from Smolyan to Plovdiv, one from Yambol to Haskovo, one from Kardzhali to Haskovo, one from Razgrad to Ruse and a Razgrad municipality was expanded from Targovishte territory. The last three could have etnic reasons behind them

[GMantis]

2001 Parliamentary elections:



The map key is the same as in 2005, but green stands for SDS (UDF).
And the colour for >40% has been modified, because it would otherwise merge with the dividing lines.

[GMantis]

1997 Parliamentary elections:



The map key is the same as in previous elections, but blue is for SDS (UDF) and green is for the Bulgarian Euroleft (BE).
This is probably the closest election to a landslide in Bulgaria yet and probably will be for a long time. Still, BSP did better than in 2001 in some areas, which show clearly that NMSS took votes from both parties in 2001. Meanwhile the UDF won overwhelmingly in big cities, their greatest strongholds, nearly breaking 70% in Plovdiv and getting more than 70% in some Sofia districts.
In this election the MRF ran in coalition with several Bulgarian parties, but they didn't have a great influence on the results.

[Хahar 🤔]

http://lazarus.elte.hu/hun/maps/ke2500.gif

Great map.

[GMantis]

http://lazarus.elte.hu/hun/maps/ke2500.gif

Great map.

Yes, but there are mistakes. I've already pointed the mistake about Asenovgrad. I haven't found other mistakes, but I don't know enough about the demographics of the other countries, so there can be other mistakes. It's a good map, but it should be used with caution. And consider that it's out of date.

[GMantis]

1994 Parliamentary elections



The map key is the same as in the previous two maps.
This is the best result of BSP (apart from the 1990 Grand Assembly elections, which were run under a different system). In contrast, it was the DPS' worst election, where they fell to 50% in Kardzhali, their strongest province and lost some municipalities, which they have never lost, either before or since.
The UDF (SDS) was defeated by a 19% margin and won only 4 municipalities: the three biggest cities Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna and for some stange reason, a small mining municipality.

[GMantis]

By the way, the results I used for the creation of the maps are here:
http://www.todor66.com/Izbori/index.html
They are in Bulgarian, but Google will do a pretty good tranlation.

[Hash]

Could you perhaps post some demographic maps or give us a quick overview of demographics (such as major industrial areas, mining, and so forth)?

[GMantis]

Could you perhaps post some demographic maps or give us a quick overview of demographics (such as major industrial areas, mining, and so forth)?

Well, there is the map by ethnic groups for a start. I'll try to find more information.

[GMantis]

Population density in 2004

[GMantis]

HDI by municipality. Darker is higher.

[big bad fab]

How do you explain Plovdiv and especially Varna seem to be always on the right, whereas Burgas seems to be dominated by the left ?

[GMantis]

How do you explain Plovdiv and especially Varna seem to be always on the right, whereas Burgas seems to be dominated by the left ?

Are you speaking about the province or the municipality of Burgas? The latter also leans to the right, but not as much as Varna or Plovdiv:
Burgas
Varna
Plovdiv
I think this is due to the following reasons, in no particular order:
1. Burgas has a higher rural population (8%) than Plovdiv (none) and Varna (2%). Rural voters are heavily pro-BSP. This is, however, a minor difference and is probably not the main reason.
2. Burgas is a more industrial city. BSP doesn't have such an advantage among them as with rural voters, but still better than highly educated blue collar workers.
3. Burgas is more of a "new" city than Plovdiv or Varna. It grew more strongly after WW2 and contains more new citizens, mainly emigrants from rural areas than Plovdiv or Varna. These tend to be more pro-BSP that people who have been living in a big city for multiple generations.
In any case, the difference is not very substantial and all three lean to the right as I pointed out above. In mayoral elections both Varna and Burgas are receptive to BSP candidates, though rigthwing parties usually win.