Want to depress yourself further? Look at Southern precinct results!
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Want to depress yourself further? Look at Southern precinct results!
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Author Topic: Want to depress yourself further? Look at Southern precinct results!  (Read 8624 times)
Sbane
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« Reply #25 on: November 25, 2008, 09:34:50 AM »

There has been some suggestions that the Dems should move there first caucus ( Iowa) to be a southern state.



Well there is SC. I really don't see why the dems need to appeal more to the south though. It is obvious that democrats are growing most in the west, so maybe we should add a primary in the west early on in addition to the Nevada caucus. As long as democrats can be competitive in at least a few southern states, they should be fine.
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MK
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« Reply #26 on: November 25, 2008, 09:50:31 AM »

This was suggestion before the thumping the GOP received Nov 4Th by the way.
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Sbane
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« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2008, 09:55:30 AM »

This was suggestion before the thumping the GOP received Nov 4Th by the way.

Ahh yes this was before the western battleground was created. If things had tightened more, this could have been the first time in a long time democrats have won the presidency without winning a single southern state.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2008, 10:27:13 AM »



This really is what should bother people in the South - the South used to be vital in elections - but with the Democratic blocs established in the NE, the West Coast and around the great lakes - even losing OH and IN - still 278 EV - not even considering AZ/MT/ND/SD opening up in 2012.

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MK
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« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2008, 10:37:26 AM »



This really is what should bother people in the South - the South used to be vital in elections - but with the Democratic blocs established in the NE, the West Coast and around the great lakes - even losing OH and IN - still 278 EV - not even considering AZ/MT/ND/SD opening up in 2012.



PA is getting older and could be picked off by the right GOP candidate.

IN really do you think it will go blue again?

You have a point, but its harder for a democrat to win in the south then it is for a Bush like republican to pick off states in the Democratic column.  I actually think if the GOP goes with somebody like Palin in 2012 and GA along with SC will be blue.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2008, 10:51:14 AM »



This really is what should bother people in the South - the South used to be vital in elections - but with the Democratic blocs established in the NE, the West Coast and around the great lakes - even losing OH and IN - still 278 EV - not even considering AZ/MT/ND/SD opening up in 2012.



PA is getting older and could be picked off by the right GOP candidate.

IN really do you think it will go blue again?

You have a point, but its harder for a democrat to win in the south then it is for a Bush like republican to pick off states in the Democratic column.  I actually think if the GOP goes with somebody like Palin in 2012 and GA along with SC will be blue.

PA could go to the Reps, if Obama makes a concerted effort in IN he certainly could hold it in '12.

The Reps have got a REALLY hard decision in front of them, move towards the centre to try win BACK ground (therefore alienating the base who are so bloody-minded) or hope Obama doesn't do well. 
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« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2008, 01:18:20 PM »

What's with Williams county, Ohio? It's a standard rural county isn't it?

North Carolina still confuses me, it's the exception big time. You can't attribute Obama's strength there to ONLY metropolitan areas and higher black turnout like you can in Virginia. Well maybe you can, but he at least held his own with previous candidates in the other areas. Basically what I'm saying is:





Obviously the fact that Obama at least spent money in NC is one factor but still.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2008, 01:37:09 PM »

What's with Williams county, Ohio? It's a standard rural county isn't it?

You know all those counties in Indiana which are dominated by manufacturing, had hardly any obviously middle class jobs but which are (or at least were up until very recently) prosperous, even affluent? It's like them.

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It's that bulge-shaped area east of Raleigh that I don't really get; most of the rest seems to make sense (yeah, even Catawba et al. Sort of a Southern version of those places in Indiana mentioned above). Could be abother example of media market syndrome I guess; I've not checked.
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memphis
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2008, 01:43:04 PM »

What's with Williams county, Ohio? It's a standard rural county isn't it?

North Carolina still confuses me, it's the exception big time. You can't attribute Obama's strength there to ONLY metropolitan areas and higher black turnout like you can in Virginia. Well maybe you can, but he at least held his own with previous candidates in the other areas. Basically what I'm saying is:





Obviously the fact that Obama at least spent money in NC is one factor but still.

You really can't compare NC and TN trends. Most importantly, NC has blacks in most of the state. TN pretty much only has them in urban areas and the extreme SW. Also, rural Dems in TN are WV-style. Both parts of the Tennessee River valley are old New Deal TVA counties. Obama really did not fit the style in these areas. Also, NC is a huge banking state. Think Wachovia. Banking is in a lot of trouble right now. Tennessee's economy is more focused on healthcare and distribution, which isn't in as much trouble.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2008, 01:47:41 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2008, 02:34:30 PM by Lewis (Scooter) Trondheim »


It's that bulge-shaped area east of Raleigh that I don't really get.
Perhaps a combination of a number of factors... growth, blacks, media markets etc.

"Growth" struck because there isn't much.
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Nym90
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« Reply #35 on: November 27, 2008, 01:54:45 AM »

Another interesting question is why Obama did so well in rural areas in the Upper Midwest, almost all of which are lily white. Manufacturing partly explains it as Al said, but it's not all of it by any means....home region factor to a certain extent? Doubtful that would be a really big factor but I think there was some Midwestern pride since we rarely have strong Presidential candidates from this part of the country.
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RBH
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« Reply #36 on: November 27, 2008, 03:56:04 AM »

lily-white != racist

There were parts of Northern Missouri (Putnam County) where Obama ran behind Kerry. Some of those counties just happened to be areas where African-Americans were either run out or kept out.

Some of those sundown counties did swing towards McCain too.

My first attempt to get Mississippi County, MO precinct results probably failed, but Charleston, MO has four interesting census blocks that border each other in the middle (four corners)

The NW corner block: 1108 people, 55% black (604)
The SW corner block: 1443 people, 87% black (1254)
The SE corner block: 1048 people, 30% black (310)
The NE corner block: 1334 people, 3% black (38)

I do have the 95/96 Missouri Blue Book. In Mississippi County, John Ashcroft defeated Alan Wheat by the total of 2238 to 1312. Wheat won South Charleston by a 279-201 margin, and lost North Charleston by a 483-254 margin. Wheat lost every other precinct in Mississippi County except Wilson City (32-1 Wheat).

Scott County borders Mississippi County. In 1994, Ashcroft won Scott County 8095 to 3859. Wheat won two precincts by the total of 151-3 in one, and 37-2 in another (Haywood City). The 151-2 precinct probably included all of the three census blocks that made up half of Scott County's African-American population.

Scott County's 2008 results are out, and the same two Precincts went to Obama, and McCain won everything else.
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RBH
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« Reply #37 on: December 01, 2008, 03:07:55 AM »

Magnolia, Arkansas (Columbia County)

Magnolia North: McCain 162 (80.20%), Obama 36 (17.82%)
Magnolia Northwest: McCain 264 (86.56%), Obama 39 (12.79%)
Magnolia South: McCain 126 (47.73%), Obama 133 (50.38%)
Magnolia Southwest: McCain 142 (71.36%), Obama 54 (27.14%)
Magnolia East: McCain 153 (73.56%), Obama 51 (24.52%)
Magnolia Ward 1: McCain 232 (54.85%), Obama 182 (43.03%)
Magnolia Ward 2: McCain 48 (16.16%), Obama 247 (83.16%)
Magnolia Ward 3: McCain 334 (71.67%), Obama 126 (27.04%)
Magnolia Ward 4: McCain 348 (77.16%), Obama 93 (20.62%)

In case you were unsure.. Southern Magnolia is majority African-American, and most of the rest of the city isn't.
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Husker
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« Reply #38 on: December 01, 2008, 11:28:59 PM »

I think it is a bit unfair to label all of the South as racist. Is there racism down there, perhaps more than the rest of the U.S.? Most likely. However, that does not mean that all southerners are that way nor does it mean that the rest of the U.S. is immune from racism. It exists everywhere and I hope the election of Obama does not end the race relations discussion, as we still have work to do.

Would another democrat have performed better than Obama in the southern states? Perhaps yes and perhaps no. Another democrat would have probably performed better than Obama in white, rural southern areas but I don't think the difference would have been substantial. I think religion and conservatism played a much stronger role in defeating Obama in the South than did race. If Obama was a conservative Christian, there is a good chance he would have been loved in the South. The fact that he is semi-liberal and accused of being Muslim is probably a much bigger reason why he lost. Obama's loss there represents a trend away from the democratic party that has being going on for years, particularly since 1976.

Matter of fact, here is a state by state decline (gain) in democratic margin from 1976 to 2008. It isn't just the South that has seen the decline either. 

State   Change Dem Margin
Alabama   -34.74%
Alaska   -0.45%
Arizona   7.84%
Arkansas   -49.56%
California   25.34%
Colorado   20.12%
Connecticut   27.76%
D. C.   20.83%
Delaware   19.58%
Florida   -2.49%
Georgia   -39.00%
Hawaii   42.74%
Idaho   -2.72%
Illinois   26.88%
Indiana   8.59%
Iowa          10.27%
Kansas   -7.84%
Kentucky   -23.41%
Louisiana   -24.41%
Maine   18.37%
Maryland   19.07%
Massachusetts   10.03%
Michigan   21.85%
Minnesota   -2.64%
Mississippi   -15.62%
Missouri   -3.80%
Montana   4.94%
Nebraska   5.65%
Nevada   16.78%
New Hampshire   20.89%
New Jersey   16.58%
New Mexico   17.33%
New York   21.03%
North Carolina   -10.73%
North Dakota   -2.82%
Ohio   3.52%
Oklahoma   -30.09%
Oregon   16.45%
Pennsylvania   7.58%
Rhode Island   16.64%
South Carolina   -22.01%
South Dakota   -6.93%
Tennessee   -28.17%
Texas   -14.93%
Utah   0.07%
Vermont   48.21%
Virginia   7.48%
Washington   20.77%
West Virginia   -29.23%
Wisconsin   12.23%
Wyoming   -12.75%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #39 on: December 05, 2008, 10:32:22 AM »

I'm currently looking at New Orleans precinct results, in the hope of locating a precinct map soon and then being able to give a good overview of what parts of the city have lost population, what parts have gotten blacker, what parts have gotten whiter, over the past four years. (I'll probably look at St Bernard parish too).

Anyways, I've just noticed that 70%+ of McKinney's vote in New Orleans came from absentee votes, giving an absentee voting result of Obama 84.5%, McCain 10.1%, McKinney 4.3%. Wtf?

I have also so far not seen any unanimous Obama precinct, but I've seen four with only one vote for another candidate, and in only one of them was that candidate called "McCain". Two were all Obama except one McKinney, and one was all Obama except one La Riva.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #40 on: December 05, 2008, 11:40:44 AM »

Yes! I've found a set of precinct maps! Will get to work soon!

http://www.nocitycouncil.com/districtsAndMaps.asp

 (also a couple of beautiful maps of the mayoral race at a blog, but that didn't have precinct numbers)

Oh, update: There are a few unanimous precincts. Also precincts where the only non-Obama vote was for Paul (2), Baldwin (1), or the Socialist Workers guy (1).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: December 08, 2008, 01:47:48 PM »

I've decided to widen the scope to include the 2006 (both rounds) and 2008 (all three rounds) house races.
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