Prize for the Winner, Predict MN's Final Margin
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  Prize for the Winner, Predict MN's Final Margin		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Prize for the Winner, Predict MN's Final Margin  (Read 5140 times)
Lunar
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« on: November 22, 2008, 12:34:26 AM »
« edited: November 22, 2008, 12:49:05 AM by Lunar »
Since I won in every category on the last prize thread (states nailed, average error, and national margin was off by 0.03%) Smiley, I figured I'd start a thread where you can predict whether Coleman or Franken will be the certified winner of MN and by how much. 

Can you beat me?  Place down your bets within the next 24 hours.

My prediction: Franken by 42
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2008, 12:35:51 AM »
Franken by 87.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2008, 12:40:53 AM »
Franken +71
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2008, 12:42:10 AM »
Coleman by 10
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2008, 12:47:42 AM »
Coleman by 33.
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Lunar
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2008, 12:51:42 AM »

Someone figured out the color scheme, yay!

I hope you're right deep down, I just don't see it.

This is splitting along partisan lines although (as I often state) I would probably have voted Coleman or perhaps Barkley.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2008, 01:32:16 AM »
Franken by 62.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2008, 01:33:02 AM »
Coleman by 169
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Rococo4
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2008, 01:34:21 AM »
coleman by 16

though i am losing a little confidence at the end of every day
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2008, 01:44:45 AM »

You think he's going to gain votes from here on?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2008, 01:53:25 AM »

Oh...uh...I'm not really paying attention to where the votes are coming from and all. I guessed that number for other reasons.
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Lunar
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2008, 01:53:34 AM »
I mean, his campaign is challenging every ballot that is an unmistakable/undeniably a McCain/Franken vote in one precinct simply because "the voter could not have intended to do that" - even though logic (Obama won by how much in Minnesota overall?) dictates otherwise.  

If one candidate is challenging votes 20% more anxiously than the other, which is entirely likely, then this race will tilt towards the other candidate.  Think about that.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2008, 02:41:02 AM »
Before the challenged ballots are counted: Coleman +68
After the challenges are settled: Coleman + 37

If the Ramsey absentees are counted: Franken +142
If all the contested absentees are counted: Franken + 12
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2008, 03:15:07 AM »
Franken by 12. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2008, 04:36:39 AM »
Coleman by 23.
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2008, 06:23:57 AM »
Dem Franken Wins Minnesota Senate Seat, Margin: 1 Vote
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Fritz
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2008, 10:10:34 AM »
Lizard People by 1

okay, seriously.....Coleman by 32, I hope I'm wrong
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2008, 10:41:50 AM »
When I complete my ballot analysis per precinct, I'll hazard a guess.  When does the contest guessing end, btw?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: November 22, 2008, 10:46:01 AM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on November 22, 2008, 10:41:50 AM
When I complete my ballot analysis per precinct, I'll hazard a guess.  When does the contest guessing end, btw?
When you complete your ballot analysis per precinct, of course. Any "guesses" made after that are hardly *guesses*.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2008, 11:52:56 AM »
Coleman by 57.  Coleman winning will kill my otherwise perfect score in my Senate race pool (assuming Chambliss wins).
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Lunar
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« Reply #20 on: November 22, 2008, 12:14:08 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on November 22, 2008, 10:41:50 AM
When I complete my ballot analysis per precinct, I'll hazard a guess.  When does the contest guessing end, btw?

Thread post said 24 hours, but I'll extend it to another 24.

The later your prediction is, the less bragging rights it entails.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: November 22, 2008, 12:20:00 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on November 22, 2008, 12:14:08 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on November 22, 2008, 10:41:50 AM
When I complete my ballot analysis per precinct, I'll hazard a guess.  When does the contest guessing end, btw?

Thread post said 24 hours, but I'll extend it to another 24.

The later your prediction is, the less bragging rights it entails.

Well, I'm essentially "cheating" anyway, or at least giving the my analysis a bit more *clarity*, so I'll probably take my time...
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Meeker
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« Reply #22 on: November 22, 2008, 08:51:44 PM »
Franken by 55
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #23 on: November 22, 2008, 09:56:50 PM »
Coleman by 13.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #24 on: November 22, 2008, 10:58:09 PM »

Oddly, I had exactly the same thought.
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