Do you believe in the Bradley Effect?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if anyone besides J. J. and I supposed MR politics still does...

For the record I am asking if you believe it currently exists, not if it ever did at any point in the past.

[Flying Dog]

No.

[Хahar 🤔]

No.

[Lunar]

About as much as I believe in Santa

Although the Bradley Effect *IS* real.  People DO lie to pollsters because of race.

But the frickin' stupid idea that this overwhelms other reasons pollsters can be wrong about a race is just so stupid I can't wrap my mind around it.  Only ridiculous people think otherwise

[MK]

Why Lie?

Theres a Million reasons not to vote for a politican, even if race is your main one.

So NO.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I don't really believe it exists in most of America.  I think even most racists can justify voting for a black person, even if they pull the classic "well, politician A is a good guy and he's very smart... it's just those other [insert racial group] that put a bad name on them."

A lot of racism is an inch deep and a mile wide.

[Lunar]

I must declare this too:

The Bradley Effect should logically occur in LOW-PROFILE races.  Someone who has voted Democrat all their life but refuses to vote for a black Democrat has a hard time admitting they are voting for the other guy unless there is a legitimate reason!  Luckily, PUMAs + a contested primary + Muslim rumors + terrorist connections give racists five million reasons to note for Barack Obama.

There were five million reasons to not vote for Barack Obama.  There were not five million reasons not to vote for Bradley or Wilder for their respective states.  Thus, someone who had always voted Democratic had a harder way to justify it.  But thanks to Islamic rumors, terrorist connections, PUMAs, and dozens of other friendly-fire attacks on Obama, it's not hard for someone who *should* vote Democrat to justify their vote for McCain.  Thus, no observable Bradley Effect because a counter-historical vote becomes justifiable.

/repeats himself

[MK]

I must declare this too:

The Bradley Effect should logically occur in LOW-PROFILE races.  Someone who has voted Democrat all their life but refuses to vote for a black Democrat has a hard time admitting they are voting for the other guy unless there is a legitimate reason!  Luckily, PUMAs + a contested primary + Muslim rumors + terrorist connections give racists five million reasons to note for Barack Obama.

There were five million reasons to not vote for Barack Obama.  There were not five million reasons not to vote for Bradley or Wilder for their respective states.  Thus, someone who had always voted Democratic had a harder way to justify it.  But thanks to Islamic rumors, terrorist connections, PUMAs, and dozens of other friendly-fire attacks on Obama, it's not hard for someone who *should* vote Democrat to justify their vote for McCain.  Thus, no observable Bradley Effect because a counter-historical vote becomes justifiable.

/repeats himself

You pretty much said it best Lunar.

[minionofmidas]

Yes. I worship at its altar daily.