Would Bush beat Chet Edwards?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I just realized that he lives in Edwards' district. Can you imagine Edwards' fundraising in such a race?

[The Mikado]

No, he wouldn't.  If Bush was running in 2004 instead of the nutty woman who got 48% against Chet Edwards, he would have won.  Not now.

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

[Sam Spade]

Chet Edwards barely got 53% this year against a candidate who raised no money.  Whether that's a better candidate than Bush is your opinion...

[Sam Spade]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

[Lunar]

Mikado is right.  In Chet's current district, where he was gerrymandered to lose his incumbency, it'd be a tossup.  Next election or so, if he'll be a bit de-gerrymandered, he'd probably win.

Edit with Sam's post: hmmmmm

[Sam Spade]

Mikado is right.  In Chet's current district, where he was gerrymandered to lose his incumbency, it'd be a tossup.  Next election or so, if he'll be a bit de-gerrymandered, he'd probably win.

Edit with Sam's post: hmmmmm

What makes you think that Texas Republicans will be nice to him if they control things (which is an if, of course)?  He's the easiest one to get rid of out of him, Ciro and Doggett.  Even though if the Dems get a new Valley CD, Ciro might be able to be gotten. 

The mistake they made when they redrew the map was not pairing him against a Republican incumbent.  So you get Wohlegemuth, who was a complete nutter.  Unlike Martin Frost - pairing him up against Pete Sessions.  Or Neugebauer with Charlie Stenholm.  Look what happened there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What incumbent could he end up facing? And wouldn't the Republicans be more focused on drawing new Republican seats? (Since Texas will gain at least two seats.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is when you think about kind of noteworthy that Bush lives in his best district in 2004 held by a Democrat.

[minionofmidas]

Chet Edwards barely got 53% this year against a candidate who raised no money.

He got trounced in the fringes of the Dallas Metro. He did just fine elsewhere. This is probably a race where the straight ticket voting option had an impact.

[Dan the Roman]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

I think though he may get off. As mentioned the Republicans will have four new seats to try and maintain control of, and going after Chet too-heavily will likely force him to run statewide, which is a threat to any ambitious character who wants one of those positions for themselves. Plus, my understanding, which may be out of date, is that he is nowhere near as hated as Martin Frost was in GOP circles.

In addition we are all forgetting that the Obama Justice department gets a veto on any map passed in 2011. That will make a big difference everywhere regardless of who is in control. And I expect the Feds to wield a really big stick in Texas.

[Brittain33]

I just realized that he lives in Edwards' district.

He won't be living there long after he leaves. George and Laura will most likely move into Pete Sessions' district. Bush bought the "Western White House" around the time he ran for President and it has served its purpose for the time it was needed.

[Brittain33]

What incumbent could he end up facing?

That's what I'd like to know. They already split up his base once and he survived. Short of dispersing the population of Waco and Fort Hood, there's not much more they can do short of, as you said, lumping him in with a strong Republican incumbent. Sam, I'm really curious to hear your idea of a 700,000+ district that has enough of Edwards' base in it that he'd have to run in it, and not a neighboring district, but that also contains a Republican with a solid base of his owb.

[Sam Spade]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

I think though he may get off. As mentioned the Republicans will have four new seats to try and maintain control of, and going after Chet too-heavily will likely force him to run statewide, which is a threat to any ambitious character who wants one of those positions for themselves. Plus, my understanding, which may be out of date, is that he is nowhere near as hated as Martin Frost was in GOP circles.

Chet will likely have trouble winning statewide unless the suburbs continue to move more in the Dems direction in 2010/2012/2014 than they did this year or he runs against a particular GOP candidate who performs badly among Hispanics or maybe rural whites.  Simply put, he runs well enough in his own particular area, but you can't assume that this will translate to other similar areas in Texas to produce a sufficient swing.  I wouldn't.

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Of course they can veto or get involved, but I doubt they care or have good reason to mess with this area of the world since minorities are light on the ground.  I mean, it would be very hard to make a VRA case here.  That's what happened with Austin and why it's split up the way it is.  Certainly there will be some fun going on in South Texas..

[Sam Spade]

What incumbent could he end up facing?

That's what I'd like to know. They already split up his base once and he survived. Short of dispersing the population of Waco and Fort Hood, there's not much more they can do short of, as you said, lumping him in with a strong Republican incumbent. Sam, I'm really curious to hear your idea of a 700,000+ district that has enough of Edwards' base in it that he'd have to run in it, and not a neighboring district, but that also contains a Republican with a solid base of his owb.

You can do some really ugly carving jobs in the Dallas suburbs and it would be needed.  The key, of course, would be to split McClellan County.  I suspect figuring out some way to combine Barton vs. Edwards in a matchup where Dallas suburbs predominate is the best answer, but I'm not going to do the math right now. 

Btw, Fort Hood is no longer in the CD.

[Mr.Phips]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

I think though he may get off. As mentioned the Republicans will have four new seats to try and maintain control of, and going after Chet too-heavily will likely force him to run statewide, which is a threat to any ambitious character who wants one of those positions for themselves. Plus, my understanding, which may be out of date, is that he is nowhere near as hated as Martin Frost was in GOP circles.

Chet will likely have trouble winning statewide unless the suburbs continue to move more in the Dems direction in 2010/2012/2014 than they did this year or he runs against a particular GOP candidate who performs badly among Hispanics or maybe rural whites.  Simply put, he runs well enough in his own particular area, but you can't assume that this will translate to other similar areas in Texas to produce a sufficient swing.  I wouldn't.

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Of course they can veto or get involved, but I doubt they care or have good reason to mess with this area of the world since minorities are light on the ground.  I mean, it would be very hard to make a VRA case here.  That's what happened with Austin and why it's split up the way it is.  Certainly there will be some fun going on in South Texas..

That is why TX-23 will likely not be messed with.

[Sam Spade]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

I think though he may get off. As mentioned the Republicans will have four new seats to try and maintain control of, and going after Chet too-heavily will likely force him to run statewide, which is a threat to any ambitious character who wants one of those positions for themselves. Plus, my understanding, which may be out of date, is that he is nowhere near as hated as Martin Frost was in GOP circles.

Chet will likely have trouble winning statewide unless the suburbs continue to move more in the Dems direction in 2010/2012/2014 than they did this year or he runs against a particular GOP candidate who performs badly among Hispanics or maybe rural whites.  Simply put, he runs well enough in his own particular area, but you can't assume that this will translate to other similar areas in Texas to produce a sufficient swing.  I wouldn't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Of course they can veto or get involved, but I doubt they care or have good reason to mess with this area of the world since minorities are light on the ground.  I mean, it would be very hard to make a VRA case here.  That's what happened with Austin and why it's split up the way it is.  Certainly there will be some fun going on in South Texas..

That is why TX-23 will likely not be messed with.

It will probably be messed with in this way:  If the border gets the fourth seat, the CD might be reoriented southwards to take in more of rural South Texas (Hispanic heavy anyways) and less of Bexar County.

After all, one of the seats that will obviously be created is between Austin and San Antonio, and if Republicans control the game, they might feel safer adding some of Lamar Smith's San Antonio suburbs to the CD and giving him some more Bexar suburbs to the west.  But I need to look at the numbers first.

Not to mention that TX-20 is going to have to grow someplace.  It's losing population.

[minionofmidas]

That is why TX-23 will likely not be messed with.

There would be an obvious way to mess with TX-23... if Ciro was from the border that is: Throw Laredo back in. As things stand though, that would only make it look like Ciro and Cuellar had swapped districts.

[Brittain33]

Btw, Fort Hood is no longer in the CD.

Yes. What I was thinking was that if you divided his current district in two, it doesn't help Republicans if he can run in a district that then includes Fort Hood along with part of McClellan County.

[Mr.Phips]

If Edwards survives 2010, which I fully expect, he'll be given a more reasonable district.

That won't happen, if Republicans control the process fully.  Expect them to cut up his CD so he faces a Republican incumbent with as little of his former territory as possible.

I think though he may get off. As mentioned the Republicans will have four new seats to try and maintain control of, and going after Chet too-heavily will likely force him to run statewide, which is a threat to any ambitious character who wants one of those positions for themselves. Plus, my understanding, which may be out of date, is that he is nowhere near as hated as Martin Frost was in GOP circles.

Chet will likely have trouble winning statewide unless the suburbs continue to move more in the Dems direction in 2010/2012/2014 than they did this year or he runs against a particular GOP candidate who performs badly among Hispanics or maybe rural whites.  Simply put, he runs well enough in his own particular area, but you can't assume that this will translate to other similar areas in Texas to produce a sufficient swing.  I wouldn't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Of course they can veto or get involved, but I doubt they care or have good reason to mess with this area of the world since minorities are light on the ground.  I mean, it would be very hard to make a VRA case here.  That's what happened with Austin and why it's split up the way it is.  Certainly there will be some fun going on in South Texas..

That is why TX-23 will likely not be messed with.

It will probably be messed with in this way:  If the border gets the fourth seat, the CD might be reoriented southwards to take in more of rural South Texas (Hispanic heavy anyways) and less of Bexar County.

After all, one of the seats that will obviously be created is between Austin and San Antonio, and if Republicans control the game, they might feel safer adding some of Lamar Smith's San Antonio suburbs to the CD and giving him some more Bexar suburbs to the west.  But I need to look at the numbers first.

Not to mention that TX-20 is going to have to grow someplace.  It's losing population.

 

I meant that any attempt to make TX-23 less Hispanic will likely be prohibited by the VRA and the Obama justice department. 

[Sam Spade]

Btw, Fort Hood is no longer in the CD.

Yes. What I was thinking was that if you divided his current district in two, it doesn't help Republicans if he can run in a district that then includes Fort Hood along with part of McClellan County.

Of course.  Henceforth my point about about reorienting it towards the DFW suburbs.  Right now, although that was the original point in trying to get rid of Edwards, the DFW suburb part of the CD is not that great.

[Mr.Phips]

Btw, Fort Hood is no longer in the CD.

Yes. What I was thinking was that if you divided his current district in two, it doesn't help Republicans if he can run in a district that then includes Fort Hood along with part of McClellan County.

Of course.  Henceforth my point about about reorienting it towards the DFW suburbs.  Right now, although that was the original point in trying to get rid of Edwards, the DFW suburb part of the CD is not that great.

The district Edwards represents now is really not much different than the district he represented pre-2003 politically.  It only increased the 2000 Bush vote by about 1% in 2003. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Knowing nothing about the districts I pose this question to Sam or someone else who knows. Where does Henry Bonilla live and what are the chances of one of the new districts being given to him if as Sam said Ciro is moved more toward DFW. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2002? Yes.
Now, or at any future date? No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think we can be sure that Edwards will still be around come re-gerrymandering.

[minionofmidas]

Knowing nothing about the districts I pose this question to Sam or someone else who knows. Where does Henry Bonilla live and what are the chances of one of the new districts being given to him if as Sam said Ciro is moved more toward DFW. 

Ciro? Lol, no. That was about Edwards.

Bonilla's living in the DC Suburbs somewhere, working for some lobbying outfit.