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Author Topic: Maximum Landslides  (Read 1086 times)
Volrath50
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« on: September 21, 2004, 07:08:01 pm »
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Barring one of the candidates going on a shooting spree, what is the maximum you can see each winning in November?
For me:

Bush landslide:



Bush - 385
Kerry - 153

Kerry landslide:



Kerry - 341
Bush - 197

Kerry landslide _much_ more unlikely though. Sad
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2004, 07:11:38 pm »
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In the Bush landslide scenario he likely also wins Maine.

In the Kerry landslide he would likely get Arkansas and maybe Colorado and NC.

Both sides have +/- 200 EVs that barring a "shooting spree" they are darn likely to hold on to.
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« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2004, 07:23:58 pm »
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In a maximum landslide in favor of Bush, MD and DE fall for him as well.

In a maximum landslide for Kerry, I'd give him NC, AR, and maybe TN and/or VA.

We're talking max here, which has a little above zero chance of happening, IMO.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2004, 07:29:15 pm »
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I would say that in a "Max Landslide" Bush would have a shot a Calf.

Kerry would get Arkansas, Arizona and maybe North Carolina.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2004, 08:01:17 pm »
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Kerry has no chance of losing:

DC
Massachussetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut


That's it. In a Bush landslide, hardcore Dem states will fall like dominoes, ala 1984.
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A18
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« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2004, 08:31:37 pm »
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Max Kerry - 361 to 177



Max Bush - 523 to 15 Smiley



Hey, they say Bush is like Nixon. Cheesy
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Gabu
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« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2004, 10:26:40 pm »
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Hey, they say Bush is like Nixon. Cheesy

Oh, good. Cheesy



Kerry wins!
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A18
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« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2004, 10:29:27 pm »
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Actually, would that still be a win for Kerry using today's EVs?
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Gabu
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« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2004, 10:31:58 pm »
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Actually, would that still be a win for Kerry using today's EVs?

Good question.  Offhand I'd say yes, given that the margin of victory was actually quite high (303-219 electoral votes), but I have no idea and am currently too lazy to figure it out.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2004, 10:34:22 pm by Gabu »Logged



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« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2004, 10:43:35 pm »
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Kerry loses 273-250
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A18
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« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2004, 10:49:02 pm »
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So there you go. I assume that Bush winning everything except Massachusetts is still a win, however. Cheesy
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2004, 10:50:27 pm »
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So there you go. I assume that Bush winning everything except Massachusetts is still a win, however. Cheesy

Of course not; on election eve they'll realize how immensely important liberals actually are and will award Massachusetts 300 electoral votes. Cheesy
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« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2004, 11:04:37 pm »
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Kerry landslide wins Virginia
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2004, 11:06:08 pm »
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Kerry has no chance of losing:

DC
Massachussetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut


That's it. In a Bush landslide, hardcore Dem states will fall like dominoes, ala 1984.

If Kerry wins CT he definitely wins NY
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jacob_101
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2004, 03:55:50 am »
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In the Bush landslide scenario he likely also wins Maine.

In the Kerry landslide he would likely get Arkansas and maybe Colorado and NC.

Both sides have +/- 200 EVs that barring a "shooting spree" they are darn likely to hold on to.

Vorlon, isn't it time to move MN to light blue?  In light of the most recent polls Bush is up 1-2 points.  That is, unless you are counting that ever so hilarious Star Tribune poll!!!
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2004, 12:04:12 pm »
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I don't know if Volrath50 will check this thread anytime soon (since he started it). But..I'd like to wish him a happy birthday! Smiley And only because I noticed that he is the only person on the Atlas Forum who shares a birthday with me. Wink
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2004, 12:13:18 pm »
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I don't know if Volrath50 will check this thread anytime soon (since he started it). But..I'd like to wish him a happy birthday! Smiley And only because I noticed that he is the only person on the Atlas Forum who shares a birthday with me. Wink
Happy birthday to both of you. I was just in Champaign on Thursday (if you are still there), and you can consider yourself wished well almost in person if you like. Smiley
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