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Author Topic: GA-Mellman Group (D): Internal poll shows Martin down by 2  (Read 3915 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 25, 2008, 12:50:21 am »
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If the December 2008 run-off election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Jim Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

Chambliss - 48%
Martin - 46%

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken by the Mellman Group from November 21 to 23 and has a 4% margin of error.

http://www.dscc.org/news_item?press_release_KEY=863
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2008, 01:59:25 pm »
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Toast, toasted bread, save for special election shenanigans.
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« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2008, 02:29:15 pm »
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I suppose Martin will probably lose by 5. 

But I'm still puzzling.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2008, 02:37:51 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on November 25, 2008, 02:29:15 pm
I suppose Martin will probably lose by 5. 

But I'm still puzzling.

Yes, you are.
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« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2008, 02:51:29 pm »
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And that's about as green as the grass is ever going to get.
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« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2008, 03:00:04 pm »
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I predict Martin will win.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2008, 05:07:15 pm »
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Quote from: Sam Spade on November 25, 2008, 02:37:51 pm
Quote from: Lunar on November 25, 2008, 02:29:15 pm
I suppose Martin will probably lose by 5. 

But I'm still puzzling.

Yes, you are.

Well, if anyone knows how to turn out the vote, it's Obama's machine.

But how well can that machine translate to a far less exciting candidate?  Also, their machine was only at half-strength in Georgia too.

Martin's campaign is doing a pretty solid under-the-table job at pressuring Obama to show up too. 
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2008, 05:26:28 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on November 25, 2008, 05:07:15 pm
Quote from: Sam Spade on November 25, 2008, 02:37:51 pm
Quote from: Lunar on November 25, 2008, 02:29:15 pm
I suppose Martin will probably lose by 5. 

But I'm still puzzling.

Yes, you are.

But how well can that machine translate to a far less exciting candidate?

You mean, a non-black candidate, right?
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2008, 05:34:29 pm »
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Well, not exactly, but partially.

His turnout operation did very well in lilly-white caucuses as well.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2008, 05:39:29 pm »
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Quote from: Lunar on November 25, 2008, 05:34:29 pm
Well, not exactly, but partially.

His turnout operation did very well in lilly-white caucuses as well.

Georgia is not "lily-white caucuses".  If his machine spent any time in Georgia trying to get any white voters to turn out, he was wasting his time and probably hurting his chances to win.  The only whites that will vote for him are wealthier and will probably show up anyway.  Well, maybe he would go after colleges, but the 18-29 whites in Georgia weren't exactly enamored with him.
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Lunar
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2008, 05:44:00 pm »
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Well, Regardless, Martin projects a bit of a quiet bookish vibe that doesn't make you want to volunteer, vote, etc.

If Martin were to win, he'd need to get a third or so of non-blacks...  I don't know how many of them are predisposed to vote in run-off elections.
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2008, 04:11:07 am »
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Quote from: Hillary for Sec of State! on November 25, 2008, 03:00:04 pm
I predict Martin will win.

That's nice.
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