Senator Gillibrand

[dmet41]

It should be Suozzi, but despite what party insiders say, I think it will be Cuomo.   Naming Cuomo to the post removes Paterson's most likely Democrat primary opponent, and Cuomo should easily win the special election in 2010.

The problem with the lesser-known Velazquezes, Israels, Higgins and Quinns is that they'd have to build up name recognition and a warchest for the 2010 special election.  In particular, because Senator Schumer is up for reelection in 2010, if a lesser-known NYC liberal like Velazquez or Quinn is chosen, having 2 NYC liberals on the ballot may not play well Upstate or on Long Island.  

This is NY we are talking about the state GOP is pretty much dead for the time being along with the fact that it would be very hard to knock out any Dem in such an environment, even with a good candidate and a good year.

No doubt the NY GOP is dying - but we still have one arrow left in our quiver - Mayor Giuliani.  The Senate seat could be his, if the Democrats name a weak candidate to replace Clinton and he wants it.  I'm not so sure that he'd want it, though.

I think Giuliani killed any chance he had of being elected statewide in NY with his Presidential campaign.

49-43 Patterson... seems close enough to give Rudy a shot...
http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/08%20November%20SNY%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL_final.pdf

[cinyc]

Bump now that the Clinton Secretary of State announcement has been made.   New York media reports that Clinton is not going to resign her Senate seat until she has been confirmed by the Senate, so it may be a while until we learn for sure.  Governor Paterson refuses to answer any questions about who he will name to the open seat.

[paul718]

Bump now that the Clinton Secretary of State announcement has been made.   New York media reports that Clinton is not going to resign her Senate seat until she has been confirmed by the Senate, so it may be a while until we learn for sure.  Governor Paterson refuses to answer any questions about who he will name to the open seat.

According to CNN:

"Paterson has said he would prefer someone from upstate New York, or a woman or an Hispanic candidate,"

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/01/clinton.replacement/index.html

Thanks Gov. Paterson.  It's not like we need someone smart or accomplished to represent us in the Senate.  Just send someone who'll allow you to check one of those boxes. 

[Lunar]

Sounds like my prediction meets two of those pretty solid

[Lunar]

Nydia's district is sorta kinda upstate... maybe.. kinda

[cinyc]

Nydia's district is sorta kinda upstate... maybe.. kinda

Not quite.  Not even by Manhattanite standards (where The Bronx is Upstate).

Gilbrand meets two of the three criteria, too.  And she's more electable in the special election, if you ask me.  Nydia Velazquez has some issues that may not play well in Upstate or in the NYC suburbs.

[Lunar]

Nydia's district is sorta kinda upstate... maybe.. kinda

Not quite.  Not even by Manhattanite standards (where The Bronx is Upstate).

Gilbrand meets two of the three criteria, too.  And she's more electable in the special election, if you ask me.  Nydia Velazquez has some issues that may not play well in Upstate or in the NYC suburbs.

That's barely relevant.

All that's relevant is how it ups the governor's abilities for reelection and political capital.

[Bacon King]

According to CNN:

"Paterson has said he would prefer someone from upstate New York, or a woman or an Hispanic candidate,"

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/01/clinton.replacement/index.html

Thanks Gov. Paterson.  It's not like we need someone smart or accomplished to represent us in the Senate.  Just send someone who'll allow you to check one of those boxes. 

What? Are you suggesting that women, Hispanics, and people from upstate New York can't be smart or accomplished?

[paul718]

According to CNN:

"Paterson has said he would prefer someone from upstate New York, or a woman or an Hispanic candidate,"

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/12/01/clinton.replacement/index.html

Thanks Gov. Paterson.  It's not like we need someone smart or accomplished to represent us in the Senate.  Just send someone who'll allow you to check one of those boxes. 

What? Are you suggesting that women, Hispanics, and people from upstate New York can't be smart or accomplished?

No.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh how hilarious horrible that would be.

There's a chance for someone even worse than Hillary, one of the most annoying people on the planet.

[Ogre Mage]

Caroline Kennedy.

[Keystone Phil]

I almost lost it when I saw this story earlier today. Remember when she was going to challenge Peter King?

[minionofmidas]

I almost lost it when I saw this story earlier today. Remember when she was going to challenge Peter King?

And now King's supposed to challenge her!

[Keystone Phil]

I almost lost it when I saw this story earlier today. Remember when she was going to challenge Peter King?

And now King's supposed to challenge her!

Yeah, that would be awesome.

[Lunar]

I don't think it'll be Caroline

Nydia withdrew her name today from the competition

I guess I'll switch over to Byron Brown... Cuomo is too boring of a guess

[Ogre Mage]

It appears that Kennedy is starting to undergo a "vetting" process by the press.  A number of stories critical about her potential appointment are being run and skeptics in NY are speaking out against her.  Given that she is untried in the brutal world of NY politics and has never undergone this kind of scrutiny before, this is important.  We will see if she has the mettle to answer the questions about her qualifications, defuse her critics and maneuver successfully behind the scenes for the appointment or if she can't take the heat and will quietly fade away.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Caroline Kennedy won't replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate I can assure you of that. Sure such a selection would boost Governor Patterson's popularity but I cannot imagine Patterson doing such a move.

Anyway, the honour of replacing Hillary Clinton as New York's Junior Senator I believe will either go to Attorney-General Andrew Cuomo (boring selection I know, but one of the most qualified candidates) or Representative Kirsten Gillibrand. However, I would have preferred hispanic Representative Nydia M. Velázquez rather than Gillibrand, who unlike Gillibrand was originally one of my personal favourites to replace Clinton.

[Lunar]

Nydia was my initial pick too.  She'd be great too, because she'd drive off the biggest primary and general election challengers off to the Senate election rather than challenge the Gov.  Give your opponents everywhere a weaker piece of meat and solidify the Hispanic organizations into endorsing you early, why not?

She's getting buried.  Google it and you can tell that a Kennedy pick would piss a lot of people off.  Gov. David even once joked at a public function recently that when some other blond women running up to him asking him for something (relevant to the event), he thought she was Caroline Kennedy (damning joke if you ask me).

I also have researched that there is a lot of pressure for an Upstate pick.  Everyone else elected statewide is from NYC and there are a number of prominent picks.  However, on the downside from that, there is a reason why everyone elected in NY is from NYC and it has to do with the primaries and the state layout.

My thinking is that there are three primary candidates going through David's head right now, and I'm usually wrong about these things.  Paterpater is fine in his primary, all this talk of Cuomo primarying him is ridiculous.  Paterpater can win AA's and enough incumbent support, and Cuomo is young enough that he can chillax for four years.  

Thus, Pater needs someone who can cement his already impending general-election victory, and since there are no viable Hispanic candidates and he himself is black, why not go for someone upstate?  Pater himself has said that he'll appoint someone Hispanic, Upstate, or Female (which excludes Cuomo, very intentional on Pater's part to get that rumor squashed quick, although it persists).

I see three main contenders Upstate NY can give:

Byron Brown - mayor of Buffalo and NY's second-largest city.  Byron would be a shoe-in if Pater were white, but since Byron Brown is also black, he adds little in political capital.  I don't know his popularity, Byron has basically 0 accomplishments as mayor or in the state legislator, but he does know the state well and is kinda sorta maybe a rising star.  But he's friends with the Gov and why not?  I've heard that he's been overhyped a bit by the NYT and so on.  He'd be in my final two though if I were choosing.

Thomas Suozzi - this guy is insanely ambitious.  Wikipedia him.  Charming, super-moderate (the GOP tried to convince him to switch to the Republican side to challenge Spitzer from their side rather than in the primary).  Has great state-wide connections from his failed governor's race primary against Spitzer. Famously instantly said that he intends on running for president someday during a debate.  Rising star all around, but I feel reality is a bit constrained for his ego.  If he got picked, it'd give Paterpater some real moderate Upstate material to work with and a potential ally in a longshot future president?

But could an appointed moderate, even with state-wide connections, survive a primary challenge from Cuomo?  And would Paterson even care?

Kirsten Elizabeth Rutnik Gillibrand - Blah, generic, recently elected, only non-79-year-old Representative from upstate NY that is female.  Young, rising star I suppose.  She's a Blue Dog, could she survive a primary?  Would feminist coalitions be satisfied with a blue-dog female to make it be worth it?  Would she buy Paterpater any political capital?




Well, that's your Upstate picks.

[Mr. Morden]

Byron Brown - mayor of Buffalo and NY's second-largest city.  Byron would be a shoe-in if Pater were white, but since Byron Brown is also black, he adds little in political capital.

Paterson and Quinn should arrange a trade, whereby Paterson appoints a black (Brown), and gives the political credit to Quinn, while Quinn appoints a woman (Schakowsky), and gives the political credit to Paterson.  Both of them benefit politically, and there is zero net change in the racial and gender composition of the Senate.

Of course, things don't quite work that way.....

[Lunar]

Haha, yeah.  If Obama and Clinton were from the opposite states, that would be ideal for these governors.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I'm going with Souizzi

[Lunar]

I'm going with Souizzi

I'm really starting to think he's the pick too, over Byron Brown.  The way NY politics work, Nassau is practically upstate.

Anyway, Paterpater is getting close to deciding:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2008/12/ny-governor-clo.html

[Lunar]

Ok, I changed my prediction in light of recent events

Remember Paterson basically says he wants either a Hispanic, an Upstater, or a woman.

The Hispanics, I realized, lost their only two candidates since Alfonso took a job at the White House and Nydia took her name out. 

He also said he wants someone who can win elections.  With one of the lobbying groups effectively mitigated, why not hit up the last two simultaneously? 

Who better than Blue Dog Upstater Kirsten Gillibrand?  She won her district with more votes than anyone else in New York, she's a rising star (elected in 2006), and as Cillizza said, she's an amazing fundraiser.

Hell, she even looks like a young Hillary so it'd be an easy transition:


my final prediction is Kirsten.  If I'm right, I could even be predicting a future president  

[Lunar]

You know what's sad about this?  Every single serious choice for Paterson is probably less corrupt than every single serious choice for Quinn/Illinois voters.  In addition, both Blago and Quinn are complete electoral losers scrambling to gain more support while Paterson is strongly favored to maintain his seat if he doesn't have a scandal.

[Ogre Mage]

I think Gillibrand is the next most likely after Kennedy.  Ironically, however, she may have to pivot to the left if she runs statewide as the state as a whole is considerably more liberal than her district.  Otherwise she risks a primary challenge in 2010 and/or 2012.  Also, her Congressional seat has a fair chance of going Republican, which isn't a plus. 

The feminist left is a strong force in NY.  I think they would prefer Kennedy or Carolyn Maloney to succeed Hillary, but Gillibrand would probably be acceptable.  Also, Gillibrand supported Hillary in the Presidential race while Kennedy endorsed Obama, so Gillibrand has a leg-up among Clinton loyalists in NY.