The epicenter of the anti-Obama swing

[RBH]

Combining some of the counties with the biggest anti-Obama swing (and a county or two to connect other counties)



Presidential results for these 24 counties

2004- Bush 136056 (52%), Kerry 121490 (47%)
2008- McCain 140967 (61%), Obama 87017 (37%)

The Kentucky Counties went 51/48 Bush and 62/36 McCain. The Virginia Counties went 56/43 Bush and 62/37 McCain. The West Virginia Counties went 51/49 Bush and 58/41 McCain.

If these 24 counties were a state, they would have had 685581 people in the 2000 Census. This 'state' would also have 15038 African-Americans, with 8715 from West Virginia, and 6918 of them from McDowell and Mercer counties.

So yeah, one hell of a swing, isn't it.. a combination of fearmongering over guns, religion, and coal wins out in this area.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wow... good work.

[RBH]

If it's a big deal, you can move this to the nerd forum.

[memphis]

Yeah, Obama bombed in coal country. There was some anti-coal comment he made shortly before the election that probably didn't do him any favors in this region.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah, Obama bombed in coal country. There was some anti-coal comment he made shortly before the election that probably didn't do him any favors in this region.

That was a hit piece by the media. It turns out he was quoted out of context.

[minionofmidas]

How many EVs would that state have and how would the remnants of the three states vote (and how many EVs would they have)?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yeah, Obama bombed in coal country. There was some anti-coal comment he made shortly before the election that probably didn't do him any favors in this region.

That was a hit piece by the media. It turns out he was quoted out of context.

he and McCain have basically the same position on coal. Drudge just got on hold of an audio clip from a 6 month old interview and twisted it out of context with one of his trademark blaring headlines to make it sound like he was going to make it impossible to open a coal-fired power plant. Turns out Obama and McCain have the same position on coal. D'oh!

[ilikeverin]

How many EVs would that state have and how would the remnants of the three states vote (and how many EVs would they have)?

"America Vera" would likely only have 3 EVs (it has a population of about 697,237).  As to the other two, I was silly and used 2000 population figures for my rough approximation of how many EVs they should have but only have 2008 population figures on hand.  It looks like West Virginia would be right on the boundary between losing one and staying the same, whereas Virginia would have a little bit of a cushion.  I'd leave it up to muon to figure things out, though

As far as two party percentages go, the states without America Vera would have voted...
Virginia: 54.06% Bush, 45.94% Kerry (compared to 54.13-45.87 for Virginia as a whole); 53.49-46.51 Obama (compared to 53.18-43.56 Obama)
Kentucky: 60.64-39.36 Bush (60.01-39.99); 57.94-42.06 McCain (58.23-41.77 McCain)
West Virginia: 56.99-43.01 Bush (56.48-43.52 Bush); 56.44-43.56 McCain (56.69-43.31 McCain)