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| | |-+  When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%
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Question: When will unemployment rate reach 7.6%?
January 2009   -8 (42.1%)
February 2009   -5 (26.3%)
March 2009   -0 (0%)
April 2009   -0 (0%)
May 2009   -0 (0%)
June 2009   -1 (5.3%)
Later in 2009   -0 (0%)
Not happening   -5 (26.3%)
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Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%  (Read 3191 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« on: November 25, 2008, 11:05:17 pm »
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The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?
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« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2008, 11:13:11 pm »
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A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.
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Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2008, 12:30:14 am »
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A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2008, 12:49:26 am »
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A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.
...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2008, 02:26:55 am »
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The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2008, 12:52:25 pm »
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A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.
...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.

Absolute nonsense.  The auto industry was doing fine until government policy caused a depression.  Anyway lots of subsidized and nationalized firms have continued to provide both cars and employment, historically - British Leyland, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat (?), and most Korean and to some extent Japanese auto makers...
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2008, 05:00:39 pm »
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The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?

 7.6% is a higher unemployment rate than the counrty has had in more than a decade, and twice the lowest unemployment rate of the past decade.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #7 on: January 09, 2009, 09:59:17 am »
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Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.
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« Reply #8 on: January 09, 2009, 11:58:44 am »
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Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: January 09, 2009, 01:27:06 pm »
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Not only is it not 7.6% in the more realistic number (U-6), but also the government likes to add a number of fake jobs in its early part of the year reports.  So, it might be a while before we get there.
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« Reply #10 on: January 09, 2009, 01:51:14 pm »
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Today's fake number is 7.2%. Today's real number is 13.5%, and rising rapidly.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2009, 12:04:10 pm »
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Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessismist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2009, 03:08:42 pm »
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Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessimist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 03:13:46 pm »
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I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14

these were January's numbers, not February's numbers
« Last Edit: February 06, 2009, 03:15:19 pm by jmfcst »Logged

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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2009, 03:35:13 pm »
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Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.

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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2009, 03:41:49 pm »
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Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

no, I think we're headed for a min of 8.5%, for sure.

---

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.

alright, relax
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Do not fight with one another over my banning.  I've enjoyed the time I have spent with all of you, but the time really has come for me to leave.  It is what I want.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9Y_GLT4_9I

I looked over Jordan, and what did I see?
Coming for to carry me home,
A band of angels coming after me,
Coming for to carry me home.

Swing low, sweet chariot,
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2009, 04:41:44 pm »
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U-6 went from 13.4% to 13.9% adjusted.

I should note that if you remove the seasonal adjustments garbage, you get:

U3 = 8.5% unadjusted; U6 = 15.4% unadjusted.

Seasonal adjustment usually means that the after-holiday January layoff spree gets under-stated.  Other data in there suggests to me that a lot of independent contractors, sole proprietors and small businesses went bust last month.

What that means overall is that the adjusted numbers (7.6% and 13.9%) are likely to get revised downward.  By a good bit too.

Ignoring all the garbage that will be added through the next six months or so, I think a reasonable U-6 number guess at the end of 2009 is 20%.

That's a depression, folks.
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2009, 05:05:09 pm »
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J.J. must be so hard right now
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2009, 06:33:36 pm »
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J.J. must be so hard right now
A deluge in his pants, if you will.
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2009, 06:47:30 pm »
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The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2009, 07:11:18 pm »
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The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?

I dunno.  How much do you think the numbers can be fudged?
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« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2009, 09:13:14 pm »
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This all Obama's fault. The entire rise occurred during his first two weeks in office.
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