When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%

[CARLHAYDEN]

The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

[President Marokai]

A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.

[Mint]

A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.

...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?

[opebo]

A while ago. Oh, you mean the BS official rate.

This. Although, the way to skyrocket the Unemployment is to allow the auto-industry to fail.

...Which it will probably continue to do regardless of whatever money we throw at it.

Absolute nonsense.  The auto industry was doing fine until government policy caused a depression.  Anyway lots of subsidized and nationalized firms have continued to provide both cars and employment, historically - British Leyland, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Fiat (?), and most Korean and to some extent Japanese auto makers...

[CARLHAYDEN]

The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?

 7.6% is a higher unemployment rate than the counrty has had in more than a decade, and twice the lowest unemployment rate of the past decade.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

[opebo]

Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

[Sam Spade]

Not only is it not 7.6% in the more realistic number (U-6), but also the government likes to add a number of fake jobs in its early part of the year reports.  So, it might be a while before we get there.

[Lief]

Today's fake number is 7.2%. Today's real number is 13.5%, and rising rapidly.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessismist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessimist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14

these were January's numbers, not February's numbers

[CARLHAYDEN]

Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

no, I think we're headed for a min of 8.5%, for sure.

---

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.

alright, relax

[Sam Spade]

U-6 went from 13.4% to 13.9% adjusted.

I should note that if you remove the seasonal adjustments garbage, you get:

U3 = 8.5% unadjusted; U6 = 15.4% unadjusted.

Seasonal adjustment usually means that the after-holiday January layoff spree gets under-stated.  Other data in there suggests to me that a lot of independent contractors, sole proprietors and small businesses went bust last month.

What that means overall is that the adjusted numbers (7.6% and 13.9%) are likely to get revised downward.  By a good bit too.

Ignoring all the garbage that will be added through the next six months or so, I think a reasonable U-6 number guess at the end of 2009 is 20%.

That's a depression, folks.

[Matt Damon™]

J.J. must be so hard right now

[Lief]

J.J. must be so hard right now

A deluge in his pants, if you will.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?

[Sam Spade]

The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?

I dunno.  How much do you think the numbers can be fudged?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This all Obama's fault. The entire rise occurred during his first two weeks in office.