When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%

[Sam Spade]

Not only is it not 7.6% in the more realistic number (U-6), but also the government likes to add a number of fake jobs in its early part of the year reports.  So, it might be a while before we get there.

[Sam Spade]

U-6 went from 13.4% to 13.9% adjusted.

I should note that if you remove the seasonal adjustments garbage, you get:

U3 = 8.5% unadjusted; U6 = 15.4% unadjusted.

Seasonal adjustment usually means that the after-holiday January layoff spree gets under-stated.  Other data in there suggests to me that a lot of independent contractors, sole proprietors and small businesses went bust last month.

What that means overall is that the adjusted numbers (7.6% and 13.9%) are likely to get revised downward.  By a good bit too.

Ignoring all the garbage that will be added through the next six months or so, I think a reasonable U-6 number guess at the end of 2009 is 20%.

That's a depression, folks.

[Sam Spade]

The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?

I dunno.  How much do you think the numbers can be fudged?