When will undeployment rate reach 7.6% (user search)
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  When will undeployment rate reach 7.6% (search mode)
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Poll
Question: When will unemployment rate reach 7.6%?
#1
January 2009		  
#2
February 2009		  
#3
March 2009		  
#4
April 2009		  
#5
May 2009		  
#6
June 2009		  
#7
Later in 2009		  
#8
Not happening		  
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Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: When will undeployment rate reach 7.6%  (Read 4357 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« on: November 25, 2008, 11:05:17 PM »
The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2008, 05:00:39 PM »
Quote from: Judge, Fmr. Chairman, Fmr. Governor, & Queen Mum Inks.LWC on November 26, 2008, 02:26:55 AM
Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on November 25, 2008, 11:05:17 PM
The economy is rapidly shedding jobs.

I estimate than when the rate hits 7.6% there's going to be a lot of political discontent.

So, when do you think this will happen, and what will be the impact?

What's it at now?  What's significant about 7.6%?

 7.6% is a higher unemployment rate than the counrty has had in more than a decade, and twice the lowest unemployment rate of the past decade.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2009, 09:59:17 AM »
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2009, 12:04:10 PM »
Quote from: opebo on January 09, 2009, 11:58:44 AM
Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on January 09, 2009, 09:59:17 AM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessismist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2009, 03:08:42 PM »
Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on January 10, 2009, 12:04:10 PM
Quote from: opebo on January 09, 2009, 11:58:44 AM
Quote from: CARLHAYDEN on January 09, 2009, 09:59:17 AM
Thought I'd update this thread as I suspect that some posters may have gotten more realistic over the past six weeks.

You mean they may have become more pessimistic?

Previously 44% of those responding to the survey said we would not reach 7.6% unemployment.

Remember, "pessimist" is the name an optimist calls a realist!

I suspect that when February's numbers are in we will have hit (or exceeded) the 7.6%.

Ahem,

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090206/economy.html?.v=14
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2009, 03:35:13 PM »
Are you predicting that the February numbers will be lower?  If so, please make that clear.

And notice, I said when the February numbers came out, the unemployment rate would reach (or exceed) 7.6%.

It happened a few weeks earlier than I expected.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2009, 06:47:30 PM »
The next question is whether the unemployment rate  (U3) will reach or exceed 9.6% between now and the 2010 elections?
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