2012 prediction

[Tender Branson]

Because it's never too early to prepare for 2012, I decided to post my prediction here.  Why?  Gloating purposes.  If I get it right four years ahead of time, I automatically am the smartest because I got it right before anyone else.  So there.

Now, first things first.  I will not be predicting who the winner of the 2012 election will be.  No, I will only be predicting the primaries.  This makes my job easier since it is the Republican primary that matters.  Republicans, as we can tell by now, go with the *establishment* candidate.  They did it in 2008 with McCain, 2000 with Bush, 1996 with Dole.  The presidential nomination is very hierarchial.  Contrast that with the Democrat party who always throw their nominee-apparent overboard.  The Democrat primaries are always much more of a horse-race than the Republican primaries.

That said, there are only three names that matter in 2012.  They are:



Palin.

Huckabee.

Romney.



That doesn't mean that the other candidates don't matter or that they aren't important.  It's just that they won't be the nominee ... in 2012.

Let's run through the candidates listed on wikipedia, shall we?

Haley Barbour - This guy is a former tobacco lobbyist, is from Mississippi, and is 61 years old but looks much older.  Where can I sign?  Fortunately, Barbour won't run because he's smarter than that.

Eric Cantor - This guy might run ... if he's an idiot.  Sure he's a conservative congressman, but when was the last time in recent history that a congressman became the nominee?  How about ... never?  Skip.

Charlie Crist - Now this guy wouldn't be so bad.  The only problem is, he's fruity as hell.  If he's stupid, he'll run, but if he's smart, he won't, unless he wants to subject himself to gay rumors.  I used to think that he would never run for the Presidency, but his recent marriage has proved to me that he may be more ambitious than he seems.  Even if he weren't flaming, his chances of being the Republican nominee aren't so good.  Why?  He's a social moderate, some would even say liberal.  Does Charlie Crist lack "family values"?  (Look for these code words if he runs, folks!)

Newt Gingrich - Newt knows he can't win.  He just wants to be an ideas man.  If his enormous ego wasn't always getting in the way, he would be effective.  Another thing to mention is that he will be almost 70 years old when 2012 runs around.  If he wants to be President, he knows this is his last shot.  I give him a 50-50 odds of running, perhaps lower.  He won't get anywhere though.

Rudy Giuliani - Anyone who thinks that Rudy should run in 2012 is stupid.  Anyone who thinks that he'll win is even stupider.  Rudy isn't stupid folks.  He took the hint in 2008.  He won't be running again (for any office).

Jon Huntsman, Jr. - The only way Huntsman runs is if Romney does not run.  The two are practically butt-buddies (or would be if they weren't Mormon).  Of all the candidates, I've probably analyzed Huntsman the least.  Not that it matters.  He won't win.  Just trust me.

Bobby Jindal - I know this will surprise most people, but Bobby Jindal will not run in 2012, and if he does, he will not be the nominee.  It's not that he wouldn't make a good President, it's that he *would* make a good President, and therefore he has a longer shelf life.  Now Romney and Huckabee know they have only one more chance to run, so they'll take it - regardless of how popular Obama is in 2012.  Jindal, though, can afford to wait.  If Obama looks like a lock in 2012, there's no way Jindal runs.  Even if Obama looks vulnerable, don't expect a Jindal run.  Now don't get me wrong.  There's a *chance* Jindal runs - a small one.  But don't forget that he also has to run for reelection in 2011.  Add this to the fact that Jindal said recently that he would not run, then you can see how the likelihood of a President Jindal in 2013 looks pretty slim.

Gary E. Johnson - No.

Ron Paul - He'll be 77 years old, but he might still run (his ego still needs stroking).  Expect the lunatic supporters to come out in hordes to try to take back the Republic in '12.  They'll fail, of course.

Tim Pawlenty - Of all the folks mentioned here (besides the Big 3) this is the guy most likely to run.  But he won't win.  He won't come anywhere close.  Most likely, his campaign will falter and he'll drop out early on.  Why?  Because Tim Pawlenty is the worst campaigner in the world.  He almost lost his reelection bid in 2006 because he only started to campaign in October.  Plus, the guy is just plain boring.  The McCain campaign tossed Pawlenty and Lieberman around as red herrings to distract voters from the much more interesting Sarah Palin.  When you're in the same boat as Joe Lieberman, you know you're in trouble.

Mike Pence - This guy's ambition is to be Speaker.  He won't run in 2012.  If he does, he won't win.  Next.

David Petraeus - This guy is just a big 'ol mystery.  He doesn't seem to have any political ambition.  If he runs, count me surprised.

Paul Ryan - Lol, who?  No, just no.  Not on the level of Gary E. Johnson no, but no nonetheless.

Mark Sanford - Mark Sanford just does not care about anything, least of all about being President.  He'll finish up his term in 2011 and retire from politics with hardly a word.  Some Republicans dream of a President Sanford, but alas, it will be ever a dream.  Next.

John Thune - This guy is a Christian conservative similar to Huckabee or Palin.  The question is, what does he have that they don't?  The answer is, nothing.  He might be a good VP pick, but other than that, no.
------------------------------
So what are we to make of this?  Palin, Huckabee, and Romney are the most ambitious of the three.  They are also the "establishment" candidates.  Palin by virtue of being the VP candidate.  Huckabee and Romney because they ran before and lost.  If history is any indicator, the Republican nomination will go to one of those three and not to any of the others mentioned.

Right now, the polls (and there is only one poll) show Palin with a massive lead - 64%.  This is probably a little inflated due to the recent election and hype surrounding her.  Most of this support will probably subside, indeed, that will probably be her ceiling.  But this should tell us something: Palin fever is real.  The mainstream media might not like her, but Republicans do.  Whether they'll be willing to give her the nomination is another matter entirely.  The good news is that she has four years to brush up on her foreign policy skills, establish a campaign apparatus and correct her faults.

With all that said, there are only three possibilities for who takes office on January 20, 2013.  Barring assassination, a December 2012 apocalypse, or any other unforeseen event, there are only three candidates:

President Obama.
President Palin.
President Romney.

Huckabee will not be elected President.  Not, not, not, not, not.  But I am less certain of these.  I am certain that either Obama, Palin, or Romney will be President.  Then a wide gap, then a much much wider gap, and you have the other candidates listed.  Basically, I think I am ready to exclude Huckabee, but I am not 100% certain.  He may yet surprise me.  So just in case there is a President Huckabee in 2013 ... remember.  Of all these candidates, he is the *next* most likely.  The thing is that my crystal ball is malfunctioning.

So there you have it.  There is my prediction.  For the Republican nomination: Huckabee, Palin, Romney.  For the Presidency: Obama, Palin, or Romney.  And maybe, *maybe* Huckabee.

I'll post more analyses for other candidates if anyone wants to see them (but just so you know, there's already no chance they're going to win).  Who is going to win is already set in stone.  How they are going to win it has yet to come, but it will happen.  I'll update my prediction when later events transpire.  Consider this merely ... a seed.

That's all folks.

[Lunar]

Surprisingly near-perfect analysis.  Maybe a little more credit to Jindal, and admitting that Gingrich may run and succeed just to feed his ideas-man ego, but that's it.

One caveat is whether Palin and Huckabee overlap too much.  If one runs, the other running could destroy the other's candidacy.

Palin has a bigger window like Jindal does.  Jindal will run if the field is open and Obama looks vulnerable (unlikely on both) and Palin could also wait until 2016 but the girl seems that she would run even if she had a 2% chance at winning in 2012.  She seems really eager to run her own campaign.

[Wall St. Wiz]

It all really depends on how the country fares over the next 4 years and how Obama is perceived.  I think the economy is going to turn around and Obama will get credit for it.  That alone will scare top young talent like Jindal, Thune, Ryan, Pence, Pawlenty, etc from running.  So we'll probably end up with someone like a Romney or Barbour as the nominee, a sacrifial lamb who will go down in a 450+EV defeat to Obama.

The one big caveat to all this is what happens in the world over the next four years.  I think the bullies of the world like China, Russia, Venezuela, Iran will view Obama as a weak leader and challenge him every step of the way.  Sadly I think there is a very good chance of another terrorist attack here or some kind of major international event or even a war that could destroy Obama's presidency.  I don't want to see it happen because I love the country.  But I do think that foreign policy/national security is going to be a much bigger issue in the election.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I really think MSM would bury any of the gay rumors about Crist. I don't see it becoming an issue.

Also, I don't think Palin is electable.

Otherwise, I agree with most of this.

[War on Want]

I really think MSM would bury any of the gay rumors about Crist. I don't see it becoming an issue.

Also, I don't think Palin is electable.

Otherwise, I agree with most of this.

[paul718]

Vander Blub, you are so wrong.  This is what will happen...

The GOP field will be:
Ensign
Romney
Gingrich
Thune
DeMint
Owens (surprise!)
and a random, back-bench congressman 

Early national polls have Romney leading Gingrich and the field.  There is talk of Jindal, but he explicitly states that he will not be running for national office, as he intends to fulfill his 2nd term as LA's governor.  There is also talk of Palin making a late entry, similar to Thompson in '08, but the numbers don't look very good for her, so it never happens.  Pawlenty wants to run for Senate.  Huckabee likes his TV show. 

In Iowa, Ensign, DeMint, and Thune cancel each other out, giving the win to Gingrich.  Owens drops out.  Thune also gets out, saying he has too much work to in the Senate considering his leadership role.   Romney wins NH and MI.  Ensign drops.  Gingrich wins SC (DeMint drops) and FL.  Polls show Gingrich has a clear path to the nomination, Romney drops out after a couple more states.

Obama keeps Biden as his runningmate.  Gingrich chooses Mitch Daniels.

Obama/Biden defeats Gingrich/Daniels in a close race. 

P.S.  I'll run through my opinions of the potential candidates in a second post.

[The Ex-Factor]

What does everyone think Mitt Romney is going to do in '12? Is he going to pretend to be a hardline social conservative again, or is he going to go moderate and try to convince the Republican party that Palin & Huckabee are unelectable?

If it's the latter, then it should be a very interesting battle for the soul of the Republican party.

And I definitely do see a scenario where Palin and Huckabee split the votes and let someone else capture the nomination, like what happened in South Carolina in '08.

[SPC]

Well, since many people are giving their 2012 predictions in this thread, I will give mine. Feel free to laugh at it as much as you want, but keep in mind that I'm an optimist. I bet that, like in 2008, Palin, Romney, and Huckabee split the conservative vote, allowing a moderate like Johnson to have success in the early states and giving him momentum. All three of his major opponents are too egotistical to drop out early and endorse one of the other two until it is too late. Johnson wins the nomination and chooses Walter Jones as his running mate. The Obama administration gets affected by a surprise scandal in 2012, allowing Johnson to have a narrow victory.

Again, please keep in mind that I am being VERY optimistic.

[paul718]

What does everyone think Mitt Romney is going to do in '12? Is he going to pretend to be a hardline social conservative again, or is he going to go moderate and try to convince the Republican party that Palin & Huckabee are unelectable?

If it's the latter, then it should be a very interesting battle for the soul of the Republican party.

I think and hope he will be comfortable in his own skin this time around.  I just hope it isn't too late.

Eric Cantor - This guy might run ... if he's an idiot.  Sure he's a conservative congressman, but when was the last time in recent history that a congressman became the nominee?  How about ... never?  Skip.

Mike Pence - This guy's ambition is to be Speaker.  He won't run in 2012.  If he does, he won't win.  Next.

Paul Ryan - Lol, who?  No, just no.  Not on the level of Gary E. Johnson no, but no nonetheless.

I disagree with you regarding Cantor and Pence.  It should be the other way around.  Cantor has his eyes set on being Speaker, IMO.  That's why he's jumped Pence in the hierarchy.  Pence is also better on the stump and on TV -- more suited for a national run. 

And I don't know why you're so easily dismissing Paul Ryan.  There was a movement in the House GOP to get him to challenge Boehner for the leadership, and he probably would've won.  He turned it down because he has young children and didn't want to sacrifice the time.  He's probably a hotter commodity than Cantor and Pence right now.  With that said, however, I don't think he'll run come 2012.

I wouldn't be too surprised if a serious 2012 challenger comes out of the House.  That's where the GOP's best young talent is.  And their continued opposition of bailout-mania should keep them in front of the cameras for the foreseeable future.

Finally, do you really think Palin and Huckabee will run?

[Joe Republic]

What does everyone think Mitt Romney is going to do in '12? Is he going to pretend to be a hardline social conservative again, or is he going to go moderate and try to convince the Republican party that Palin & Huckabee are unelectable?

If it's the latter, then it should be a very interesting battle for the soul of the Republican party.

I think and hope he will be comfortable in his own skin this time around.

Comfortable, sure, but I strongly doubt that green scales are a particularly appealing image with which to woo voters.

[Mr. Morden]

Now, first things first.  I will not be predicting who the winner of the 2012 election will be.  No, I will only be predicting the primaries.  This makes my job easier since it is the Republican primary that matters.  Republicans, as we can tell by now, go with the *establishment* candidate.  They did it in 2008 with McCain, 2000 with Bush, 1996 with Dole.  The presidential nomination is very hierarchial.  Contrast that with the Democrat party who always throw their nominee-apparent overboard.  The Democrat primaries are always much more of a horse-race than the Republican primaries.

We don't know in advance who the "establishment" candidate is going to be.  No one would have called McCain the 2008 "establishment" candidate in 2004.  He became the establishment candidate by late 2006, but then lost that status during the summer of 2007 when his candidacy imploded.  As late as November 2007, you would have been hard pressed to find a single person who was calling McCain the establishment candidate.  If Romney had won the 2008 GOP nomination, people would have retrospectively said that he won because he was more acceptable to the GOP establishment than were Giuliani, McCain, or Huckabee.

Jon Huntsman, Jr. - The only way Huntsman runs is if Romney does not run.  The two are practically butt-buddies (or would be if they weren't Mormon).

Uhhh....Huntsman endorsed McCain over Romney in 2008.  I don't think they're really that close.  However, I agree with you that Huntsman will probably not run in an election in which there's a better known Mormon running against him.

Right now, the polls (and there is only one poll) show Palin with a massive lead - 64%. 

It's not the only poll.  There are other polls that show wildly divergent results from that Rasmussen poll:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=86444.0

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87802.0

I'll post more analyses for other candidates if anyone wants to see them (but just so you know, there's already no chance they're going to win).  Who is going to win is already set in stone.  How they are going to win it has yet to come, but it will happen.

How can you possibly be so certain of that after the extreme craziness of the 2004 and 2008 primary campaigns?  Kerry was widely considered to be dead in the water just three weeks before Iowa in 2004....McCain was widely considered to be dead in the water just three weeks before New Hampshire in 2008.  Didn't those elections demonstrate that this stuff can be wildly unpredictable?

I'll agree with you as far as this goes: Quite frequently (especially on the GOP side) you have a candidate who, very early on, locks up the vast majority of the party establishment *and* builds up a big $ advantage *and* builds up a massive lead in both national polls and one or the other out of IA and NH.  That's what happened with Dole in 1996 and both Bush and Gore in 2000.  Those kinds of frontrunners win, because they can weather the challenges from insurgent challengers.

On the other hand, neither Dean in 2004 nor Clinton in 2008 was really that kind of frontrunner.  They didn't have all of those pieces in place.  Meanwhile, in the long runup to the 2008 GOP primaries, there really was no frontrunner.  In those elections, things can be wildly unpredictable, and it's almost impossible to figure out what's going to happen until the last minute.

It's too early to figure out if we're going to see that kind of frontrunner in the 2012 GOP race.  We might have a better idea in about a year, but it's way too early now.  But I certainly agree that Palin and Romney would be the most likely to become the overwhelming frontrunner if there is one, in large part because of the early name recognition advantage.  (Huckabee has that too, but it's a lot harder for me to envision him becoming the candidate of the GOP establishment.)

However, if no one becomes the overwhelming frontrunner, then it's possible for things to turn out as messy as 2008.  I agree that it's fun to speculate on these things for which the uncertainties are great, and predict who we think is the most likely, given what we have to go on three years in advance, but I would think that these most recent primaries would teach us not to ever again say anything like "Who is going to win is already set in stone", especially this far out.

[dmet41]

It all depends on how Obama does and what challenges we face in 2012. If Obama turns the economy around and everything is quiet around the world, he is a shoe in for re election and yes, one of Romney, Huckabee, or Palin will be the nominee that gets murdered. If Obama is a total disaster than the young talent will come out and someone like Thune or Jindal will be the nominee. Lastly, If Obama does get the economy turned around but in 2012 we face massive challenges abroad from Iran and Russia most specifically, Obama might be in trouble and very beatable especially if someone like Thune, who has foreign policy experience is the nominee. The challenges a nation faces changes in four years, Americans vote on present challenges. John McCain went into 2008 thinking that the election would be centered around national security, if it was he would have won, it was centered around the economy and he lost. Your analysis is going on the assumption that Obama turns the economy around, is able to keep America safe, and can deal with Iran and Russia. You may be right, but for now I will wait and see. Also, Jon Huntsman is not a Mitt Romney clone and happens to be a very impressive young governor and former diplomat, who could be a very impressive nominee...

[paul718]

The fact that Huntsman was born with a silver spoon in his mouth could be a death knell if the economy is still in bad shape. 

[Lunar]

The fact that Huntsman was born with a silver spoon in his mouth could be a death knell if the economy is still in bad shape. 

Meh, that only matters if he comes across as such.

W. certainly didn't alienate poor people suspicious of elites...

[paul718]

The fact that Huntsman was born with a silver spoon in his mouth could be a death knell if the economy is still in bad shape. 

Meh, that only matters if he comes across as such.

W. certainly didn't alienate poor people suspicious of elites...

The economy wasn't priority #1 in 2000 and 2004, but I see your point. 

Hasn't the majority of American Presidents come from privileged backgrounds?

[Lunar]

And all of Obama's attempts to label McCain as a rich elitist mostly failed, despite the economic crisis.

The only time he ever got even half-second of traction was over the "How many houses do I own" issue.  I mean, McCain has about the worst economic background as possible for a politician -- being born into prestige, divorcing original wife and then marrying someone with connections and extreme wealth.  It was barely an issue, maybe cracking 0.5% of popular perspectives, in the campaign that was 100% about the economy.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

I say Romney.  I don't think it'll be Palin.  It'd be Huckabee before Palin (for the nomination).  I think Romney will win the General.

[paul718]

I say Romney.  I don't think it'll be Palin.  It'd be Huckabee before Palin (for the nomination).  I think Romney will win the General.

It won't be Huckabee or Palin.  I don't even think they'll run.  If either of them gets the nomination I'm done with this whole Republican thing. 

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

I say Romney.  I don't think it'll be Palin.  It'd be Huckabee before Palin (for the nomination).  I think Romney will win the General.

It won't be Huckabee or Palin.  I don't even think they'll run.  If either of them gets the nomination I'm done with this whole Republican thing. 

Huckabee would run before Palin.  I could DEAL with Huckabee.  Palin is just too populist for me though.  Luckily, she won't run.

[SPC]

I bet Palin wins Iowa.

[Prez Duke]

Probably, but no one cares about Iowa anymore.

[paul718]

I hate Iowa.

[Lunar]

Probably, but no one cares about Iowa anymore.

Tell that to the media and George Bush

[Prez Duke]

Probably, but no one cares about Iowa anymore.

Tell that to the media and George Bush

That was 2000. In 2004, most Republicans didn't care that Huckabee won there. It didn't have much effect in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, or Nevada.

[Mr. Morden]

Probably, but no one cares about Iowa anymore.

Tell that to the media and George Bush

That was 2000. In 2004, most Republicans didn't care that Huckabee won there. It didn't have much effect in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, or Nevada.

That was just one election cycle, and it had to do with the particular mix of who was competing in Iowa and what the outcome was.  There's no reason to think that Iowa is now going to be irrelevant in GOP primaries going forward, any more than NH was irrelevant after Buchanan's win there in 1996 failed to gain him any traction in the successive primaries.