2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A little more interesting than my Senate rankings would be (hint: about seven competitive or potentially competitive seats, the rest safe).

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (open seat (?) held by Dave Heineman - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

State notes:

Maryland - O'Malley isn't particularly popular, but outside of Ehrlich, the Republicans don't have anyone to run against him.

Hawaii - Lingle is personally popular, but she hasn't had any luck getting other Republicans elected in the state.

Rhode Island - Should be a pickup as long as the Dems don't run Myrth York.

Minnesota - Competitive if the Dems can find a non-crap candidate.

Nevada - Unpopular governor + Democratic trend = Uh-oh! (Just don't run Reid's son. Please.)

Oklahoma - You'd think this would be a sure pickup for the Republicans, but their bench is pretty thin, actually. The only statewide electeds are the three Corporation Commissioners.

Wyoming - I guess Gary Trauner could run?

South Dakota - The state is not as heavily Republican as it was in 2004 on the presidential level, but get this: they've only elected four Democratic governors in their history.

Nebraska - Wikipedia says Heineman is term-limited, but he's only in his first full term. Anyone know what the deal is here?

Overall, the Dems are going to be playing a lot of defense this cycle.

[DownWithTheLeft]

My ratings:

Safe Democratic
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)

Likely Democratic
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)

Lean Democratic
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)

Pure Tossup
Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)

Lean Republican
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)

Likely Republican
none

Safe Republican
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)
Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)

[Ronnie]

Safe Democratic
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)

Likely Democratic
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Wisconsin (open seat held by Jim Doyle - D)
Illinois (open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
New Mexico (Diane Denish - D)

Lean Democratic
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)

**Tossup/Leans Democratic
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)

Pure Tossup
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Minnesota (open seat held by Tim Pawlenty - R)

**Tossup/Leans Republican
Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)

Lean Republican
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Likely Republican
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)
Texas (open seat held by Rick Perry - R)

Safe Republican
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)

Notes:

Lynch is running?!
Douglas is running?!
Sonny Perdue doesn't have term limits?
Pawlenty doesn't have term limits?!
Rick Perry doesn't have term limits?
Blago doesn't have term limits?
Doyle doesn't have term limits?

[Kevin]

Safe Democratic
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)

Likely Democratic
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)

Lean Democratic
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)

Pure Tossup
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)

Lean Republican
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Likely Republican
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Safe Republican
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)

Notes:

Lynch is running?!
Douglas is running?!
Sonny Perdue doesn't have term limits?
Pawlenty doesn't have term limits?!

I think WI should possibly be moved to toss-up as Doyle hasn't been popular throughout much of his tenure as Governor, in addition he win reelection by a fairly narrow margin in a Democratic wave year.

The same with Oregon also.

[Lunar]

Safe Democratic
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)

Likely Democratic
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)

Lean Democratic
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)

Pure Tossup
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D) [With Obama in the oval office, I'd say lean R]
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D) [It's not open anymore, the Lt. Governor, Diane Denish has been laying the groundwork for a long time.  With Obama in the oval office I'd strongly say likely D since the GOP's slate has been wiped clean]
Minnesota (open seat held by Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) [I'd say lean D with the way this state has been going]

Lean Republican
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Likely Republican
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Safe Republican
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R) [I'd say likely on this one]
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R) [If he doesn't get attacked via primary, the Democrats will field someone like Houston Mayor Bill White that should be at least vaguely competitive.

Notes:

Lynch is running?!
Douglas is running?!
Sonny Perdue doesn't have term limits?
Pawlenty doesn't have term limits?!

[dmet41]

Patterson is far from safe...

[Mr.Phips]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

[Ronnie]

Thanks for those comments, Lunar.  I kind of bypassed Tennessee and New Mexico, but otherwise I stand by my predictions.

*edits original post*

[Keystone Phil]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

[Mr.Phips]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

[Keystone Phil]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

Well, we'll see.

[Lunar]

Thanks for those comments, Lunar.  I kind of bypassed Tennessee and New Mexico, but otherwise I stand by my predictions.

*edits original post*

I based my suggestions on my research into potential candidates lining up on both sides.  If a state is shaping up to be a one-sided, highly-charged primary (Like Illinois senate seat was in 2004), we know which party is likely going to win.  In the case of states like Oklahoma, Kansas, and Tennessee, the list of Republicans seeking interest is long.

Only two Democrats I know of might be interested in the TN governorship: Ford and Davis.  But they're staying back while people like Zach Wamp are going all-out.

National Republicans have taken note of Appalachia's complete and utter F.U. to Barack Obama, rest assured.  The GOP knows that they cannot double-down in Appalachia, but they certainly see no reason to surrender seats that they are now able to win.  In the case of Arkansas, they don't have a slate of contenders, but in most of the other states they have the bench.

[Lunar]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

In order to beat Patterson or any incumbent, said incumbent would have had to do a bad job.  No one has been looking into taking on David and even if Cuomo beat Patterson, the Democrats would will be guaranteed to win the seat.

Rest assured he'll replace Clinton with someone who will help him win a critical Democratic constituency (I predict Vasquez).

[Mr.Phips]

Thanks for those comments, Lunar.  I kind of bypassed Tennessee and New Mexico, but otherwise I stand by my predictions.

*edits original post*

 
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I based my suggestions on my research into potential candidates lining up on both sides.  If a state is shaping up to be a one-sided, highly-charged primary (Like Illinois senate seat was in 2004), we know which party is likely going to win.  In the case of states like Oklahoma, Kansas, and Tennessee, the list of Republicans seeking interest is long.

Only two Democrats I know of might be interested in the TN governorship: Ford and Davis.  But they're staying back while people like Zach Wamp are going all-out.

National Republicans have taken note of Appalachia's complete and utter F.U. to Barack Obama, rest assured.  The GOP knows that they cannot double-down in Appalachia, but they certainly see no reason to surrender seats that they are now able to win.  In the case of Arkansas, they don't have a slate of contenders, but in most of the other states they have the bench.

Im almost certain that if they dont believe that Lincoln Davis can win the Tennessee governors race, Democrats will lean on him heavily to stay in his House seat, since it would almost certainly be lost without him. 

[Lunar]

That is true.  I don't expect him to run.  I expect a sacrificial goat.

[Meeker]

Lincoln Davis said many months ago that he plans on running. I don't think there's going to be much convincing going on.

[Lunar]

Lincoln Davis said many months ago that he plans on running. I don't think there's going to be much convincing going on.

Really?  Eep, I thought he was hedging and testing the waters.

Nevermind!

[Meeker]

For anyone curious: http://www.politics1.com/blog-1007.htm#1009

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Ford is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

[Meeker]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.  Some forum members have cited claims by Davis that he would not run if Ford did as well (but I haven't checked their accuracy).

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

[Meeker]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

You'll notice that you referred to potential candidates "Lincoln" and "Davis".

[Lunar]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

You'll notice that you referred to potential candidates "Lincoln" and "Davis".

Well I meant Lincoln and Ford.  I'm not smart enough for this.  Peace out.

[Meeker]

word, alright.

It seems neither Davis nor Lincoln is likely to run against the other, so the fates favor Lincoln.

However, Davis as a lot tighter window than Lincoln does if he wants to remain in politics.

Come again?

Err, neither wants to run against the other should the other run.  If Ford explicitly filed for candidacy, I would not expect Davis to run despite his claims.

My comment on the window was that Davis has a day-job and Harold Ford only has a small window in which to do things before people forget about him.

You'll notice that you referred to potential candidates "Lincoln" and "Davis".

Well I meant Lincoln and Ford.  I'm not smart enough for this.  Peace out.

[dmet41]

Patterson is far from safe...

In a state that Obama won 62%-37% and Kerry won 59%-40%?  There is no way any Republican other than maybe Guiliani in a terrific Republican year is going to win here. 

He was probably talking about the primary challenge that he is likely to receive.

Who is going to challenge him?  The only person who could do it is Andrew Cuomo and he is likely to be appointed to Hillary's Senate seat. 

Well, we'll see.

I dont think that Cuomo is much of a threat to Patterson. A poll came out a few weeks ago showing Patterson winning only 49-43 against Giuliani. If Patterson cannot get things under control in Albany with the budget and everything, I could see Giuliani beating him. Especially in 2010 when the political climate will be better for the GOP. You would have thought that Giuliani's  debacle of a campaign in 2008 would prevent him from running successfully again, but he is still quite popular in NY.