2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[Sam Spade]

I'm not interested in rating right now, just making observations...

Alabama* (Mike Riley - R) Alabama open seat state races are usually interesting and fairly competitive.

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R) If the economy collapses, maybe.  But probably not - this is Alaska after all.  Of course, her national prominence has probably ended chances of a Ted Stevens pre-2008 style win, but I can't see it.  Besides, does the AK Dems have anyone to run?

Arizona* (presumably Jan Brewer - R) Even though she's a conservative R, people are overrating this race unless she's a nutter as Gov or someone prominent decides to challenge in the primary (Shadegg?).

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D) The AR GOP is in such shape, that, well...  Plus, I haven't seen any polls to indicate that Beebe's popularity is weak, so...

California* (Arnold Schwarzenegger - R) California may be bankrupt by the time we get to this election, so who will the voters take it out on?  Probably the Rs, but California often does what we don't think it will do.  Besides, there are more Dems to jockey for this seat...

Colorado (Bill Ritter - D) CO GOP is in the same sorry shape as before and last time I noticed, Ritter's approvals were high.  I expect them to expend more energy against Salazar, frankly.

Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R) If she wants to run for re-election, I don't see any reason why she should lose, excepting economic disaster (which is a possibility - see New York).  Haven't seen her popularity contest ratings here in a while, though...

Florida (Charlie Crist - R) Charlie seems to be exceptionally popular and exceptionally good at pandering to everyone here.  Of course, it doesn't hurt that your opponent is the FL Dem party.

Georgia* (Sonny Perdue - R) Simple demographics say that Republicans have to be favored fairly strongly here, and I don't even know the particulars of who's on the bench on their side.

Hawaii* (Linda Lingle - R) Since no Republican won this job before Lingle, I can't see how things could change...

Idaho (Butch Otter - R) Otter got a challenge last time.  I doubt we'll see any challenges this time.

Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) The IL GOP is incompetent.  Blago is about as popular as anthrax.  One of these things must give.  Of course, Blago could decide not to run for a third term and pass it off to another Cook County crony - who knows...

Iowa (Chet Culver - D) Most Iowa governors get second terms.  Nothing has shown me yet that Culver will be any different.

Kansas* (Kathleen Sebelius - R)  I hear Brownback is interested.  Brownback is annoying as all get-up, but I can't see how he loses in what will likely be a GOP-favorable year.  I mean, who's the best potential Dem out there who could beat him in a open seat race?

Maine (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) O'Malley is not particularly popular nor particularly competent, but the MD GOP is a joke.  If Ehrlich decided to run again, it could be interesting - since he was almost assuredly taken out by the 2006 wave.

Massachusetts (Deval Patrick - D) Patrick has improved his ratings a bit from earlier this year, but this is one place where I wonder if Obama being President might have a slight negative impact.  Of course, the MA GOP has to get someone competent running first, and that may prove quite a chore.

Michigan* (Jennifer Granholm - D) Probably a pure toss-up and then some.

Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) Will Pawlenty run for a third term?  Otherwise, Dems would be favored, but not by *that* much if its a GOP favorable year.

Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R) Heineman is beyond safe if he wants another term.

Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) I suspect Gibbons gets primaried or simply decides not to run again.  He's probably a dead duck should he get through, though a lot can happen in two years.  Otherwise, let's see who the candidates are here...

New Hampshire (John Lynch - D) See Nebraska.

New Mexico* (probably Diane Denish - D) From what I know about New Mexico politics, Richardson is leaving Denish a pretty large mess in the upcoming couple of years, but I doubt voters take it out on her to begin with.  Besides, who will the NM GOP run?  It seems to me that Pat Lyons and Heather Wilson are their only formidable candidates, and Lyons has had a little scandal over the past few months and Heather is really fit for Washington.

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe.  Truthfully, a lot of what happens here may depend in how bad of a shape the economy is in come 2010.  After all, both his and Bloomberg's approvals have dropped about 10% the past few months.  And yes, if things look bad, Rudy will probably run.

Ohio (Ted Strickland - D) Strickland has been a highly effective centrist governor, lambasting his party when need be (and there's been plenty of times).  I think he's safe - the question is will he have coattails or anti-coattails?

Oklahoma* (Brad Henry - D) As has been noted before, Democrats have a bench here.  However, the environment will probably not be very favorable to them.  Can cockfighting become an issue again?

Oregon* (Ted Kulongoski - D) Democrats obviously have the better bench here.  Question for Republicans is whether Gordon Smith is interested...

Pennsylvania* (Ed Rendell - D)  Will the eight-year curse continue?  Kind of like Michigan, probably, in generic terms.

Rhode Island* (Don Carcieri - R) There are Republicans in Rhode Island?  Is Lincoln Chafee interested (oh wait, he's a Dem now)?  I get my drift.

South Carolina* (Mark Sanford - R) Democrats have a few possible candidates here, but demographics and surroundings probably favor the Republican.

South Dakota* (Mike Rounds - R) Only way this goes Democrat in my mind is if Rounds and Herseth-Sandlin decide to switch spots.

Tennessee* (Phil Bredesen - D) Both Lincoln Davis and Harold Ford are good candidates, but the TN GOP will probably put up a good candidate too and would be favored, I would think.

Texas (Rick Perry - R) Question is: Will Rick Perry run and hide when Hutchinson formally enters or will he battle?  In a GE, Hutchinson can't be beaten barring conservative 3rd party troublemaker, whereas I suspect people are tired of Rick Perry.  Of course, Dems, picking an urban city Texas mayor is the first step towards losing against anyone (hint, hint, wink, wink - Lunar).

Vermont (Jim Douglas - R) If Douglas can't be beaten in 2008, when can he be beaten?

Wisconsin* (Jim Doyle - D) Will Doyle run again (crappy approval ratings and all)?  What Republican will challenge him?  Could be interesting...

Wyoming* (Dave Freudenthal - D) Dems will probably need an act of God to keep this seat, just fyi...

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why does no one seem to think Lt. Gov. Aiona could win in HI?  I remember a lot of talk about him in 2006 as being a potential senate candidate

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ah, I missed SC. Is the embarrassment of a Lt. Governor, Andre Bauer, going to run? He's pretty much the only candidate who could turn the race into a pickup for the Dems.

[Sam Spade]

Why does no one seem to think Lt. Gov. Aiona could win in HI?  I remember a lot of talk about him in 2006 as being a potential senate candidate

Anything is possible.  I'm just stating the obvious.

[Lunar]

Haha, I get the winks.  But White's the only guy I heard that's interested in the seat besides Lance Armstrong.

In Idaho, businessman Lane Startin has already declared he's going to challenge Butch Otter.

edit:  just joking, Sartin is dead:
http://www.lanestartin.org/

[DownWithTheLeft]

Colorado: Bill Ritter (D)
Pure tossup.

Any particular reason why?

[BushArizona]

lolz i bet officepark predicted Nixon would lose.. lmao

[Beet]

If Feinstein runs for governor and the Gubernator runs for Senate California's Senate race does become a pure tossup... which is why I'm hoping she decides to stay in the Senate. Why give up all that seniority anyway to be Governor in a state where it takes a 2/3 majority to pass anything meaningful?

[Holmes]

I'm not all that good at predicting, but I'll try to use as least toss-ups as possible.


Safe Democratic

Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R) - Should be an easy dem pick up honestly, who can run for this in Rhode Island?
Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D) - All he has to do in Arkansas is show up.
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D) - Nothing seems to say otherwise...
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D) - Very safe, even if he runs for Senate this one is still likely, or lean at the most.
New York (David Paterson - D) - Really not worried, especially if he's challenged in primaries and loses.

Likely Democratic

Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) - Will be primaried, I'm sure. And will probably lose.
Iowa (Chet Culver - D) - Yawn.
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) - Same as Arkansas, but he could lose in a potential primary...
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D) - Smith can run, which would be fun. I wanna say it's safe, but if he runs it's kinda not.
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D) - I haven't heard much from the Wisconsin GOP Party in... ever? He could be seriously primaried though.
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) - Very unpopular. And not "David Paterson" unpopular. If he's the candidate, then I could even re-consider it to being safe dem, but he could be primaried and possible lose.

Lean Democratic

Ohio (Ted Strickland - D) - Pretty popular, but Ohio's GOP party isn't totally incompetent and could offer a good challenger.
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D) - The Lt. Governor will have almost 2 years of incumbency, but I don't know much about her though... still, lean dem.
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R) - The Lt. Governor can try, but other than that...?
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R) - This is the one I'll be watching, because I have family there, and it's important to me. That said, if Democrats can actually choose a good candidate that's electable, it could be even more safe for them. But Republicans shouldn't think that the passing of Prop 8 is a good indicator the conservative Republicans can win in this state.
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D) - There are definitely some good Republicans in Michigan(despite the state becoming bluer and bluer), but until a good one is chosen, I'm giving the dems the benefit of the doubt here. Of course, democrats can always choose a bad candidate, but it's worth noting Granholm won re-election pretty easily.
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D) Ed was a popular governor, so it's easy to give this the benefit of the doubt to the dems. That said, with the right candidate...


Lean Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R) - The right dem can win here... after all, in the past 40 years, the majority of governors in Alabama were democrats. Then again, in the past 20 years...
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) - Could only be considered lean dem if they choose a good candidate and the Minnesota Independence Party doesn't involve itself a lot.
Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D) - I gave New Mexico to the dem column for incumbency so I'm giving the GOP Arizona for now... again, I don't know much about Lt. Governors so I'm basing this on incumbency.
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D) - I've heard the current Lt. Governor is favored? I really wouldn't know, but realistically it's a lean GOP. Especially if Brownback runs. Should be fun.
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D) - Ok, I don't know anything about Tennessee so I'm probably wrong here. Actually, I won't even talk much about it... Tennessee is pretty Republican.

Likely Republican

Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D) - Let's be realistic.
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R) - They just re-elected Saxby, so...
Nebraska (open seat (?) held by Dave Heineman - R) - If Omaha can back up the Democrat candidate and the rest of the state is unenthusiastic about the Republican candidate, then it might be lean...
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)- Boring.
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R) - Well, its New England. But that's not to say she's in danger. Still, anything can happen, though I think it's unlikely...

Safe Republican

South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R) - South Dakota electing a democrat governor? Unlikely... unless Sandlin goes for it, which I'm doubting.
Texas (Rick Perry - R) - I'm hoping otherwise, but...
Alaska (Sarah Palin - R) - Same.
Florida (Charlie Crist - R) - Popularity is high, so...
Idaho (Butch Otter - R) - You just need an R in Idaho.
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)- Vermont elects every 2 years too? Well, with a landslide this year, he'll have to screw up royally...


So that's how I see the 2010 governor races right now... feedback?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

[Gustaf]

I'm not interested in rating right now, just making observations...

Alabama* (Mike Riley - R) Alabama open seat state races are usually interesting and fairly competitive.

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R) If the economy collapses, maybe.  But probably not - this is Alaska after all.  Of course, her national prominence has probably ended chances of a Ted Stevens pre-2008 style win, but I can't see it.  Besides, does the AK Dems have anyone to run?

Arizona* (presumably Jan Brewer - R) Even though she's a conservative R, people are overrating this race unless she's a nutter as Gov or someone prominent decides to challenge in the primary (Shadegg?).

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D) The AR GOP is in such shape, that, well...  Plus, I haven't seen any polls to indicate that Beebe's popularity is weak, so...

California* (Arnold Schwarzenegger - R) California may be bankrupt by the time we get to this election, so who will the voters take it out on?  Probably the Rs, but California often does what we don't think it will do.  Besides, there are more Dems to jockey for this seat...

Colorado (Bill Ritter - D) CO GOP is in the same sorry shape as before and last time I noticed, Ritter's approvals were high.  I expect them to expend more energy against Salazar, frankly.

Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R) If she wants to run for re-election, I don't see any reason why she should lose, excepting economic disaster (which is a possibility - see New York).  Haven't seen her popularity contest ratings here in a while, though...

Florida (Charlie Crist - R) Charlie seems to be exceptionally popular and exceptionally good at pandering to everyone here.  Of course, it doesn't hurt that your opponent is the FL Dem party.

Georgia* (Sonny Perdue - R) Simple demographics say that Republicans have to be favored fairly strongly here, and I don't even know the particulars of who's on the bench on their side.

Hawaii* (Linda Lingle - R) Since no Republican won this job before Lingle, I can't see how things could change...

Idaho (Butch Otter - R) Otter got a challenge last time.  I doubt we'll see any challenges this time.

Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) The IL GOP is incompetent.  Blago is about as popular as anthrax.  One of these things must give.  Of course, Blago could decide not to run for a third term and pass it off to another Cook County crony - who knows...

Iowa (Chet Culver - D) Most Iowa governors get second terms.  Nothing has shown me yet that Culver will be any different.

Kansas* (Kathleen Sebelius - R)  I hear Brownback is interested.  Brownback is annoying as all get-up, but I can't see how he loses in what will likely be a GOP-favorable year.  I mean, who's the best potential Dem out there who could beat him in a open seat race?

Maine (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) O'Malley is not particularly popular nor particularly competent, but the MD GOP is a joke.  If Ehrlich decided to run again, it could be interesting - since he was almost assuredly taken out by the 2006 wave.

Massachusetts (Deval Patrick - D) Patrick has improved his ratings a bit from earlier this year, but this is one place where I wonder if Obama being President might have a slight negative impact.  Of course, the MA GOP has to get someone competent running first, and that may prove quite a chore.

Michigan* (Jennifer Granholm - D) Probably a pure toss-up and then some.

Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) Will Pawlenty run for a third term?  Otherwise, Dems would be favored, but not by *that* much if its a GOP favorable year.

Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R) Heineman is beyond safe if he wants another term.

Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) I suspect Gibbons gets primaried or simply decides not to run again.  He's probably a dead duck should he get through, though a lot can happen in two years.  Otherwise, let's see who the candidates are here...

New Hampshire (John Lynch - D) See Nebraska.

New Mexico* (probably Diane Denish - D) From what I know about New Mexico politics, Richardson is leaving Denish a pretty large mess in the upcoming couple of years, but I doubt voters take it out on her to begin with.  Besides, who will the NM GOP run?  It seems to me that Pat Lyons and Heather Wilson are their only formidable candidates, and Lyons has had a little scandal over the past few months and Heather is really fit for Washington.

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe.  Truthfully, a lot of what happens here may depend in how bad of a shape the economy is in come 2010.  After all, both his and Bloomberg's approvals have dropped about 10% the past few months.  And yes, if things look bad, Rudy will probably run.

Ohio (Ted Strickland - D) Strickland has been a highly effective centrist governor, lambasting his party when need be (and there's been plenty of times).  I think he's safe - the question is will he have coattails or anti-coattails?

Oklahoma* (Brad Henry - D) As has been noted before, Democrats have a bench here.  However, the environment will probably not be very favorable to them.  Can cockfighting become an issue again?

Oregon* (Ted Kulongoski - D) Democrats obviously have the better bench here.  Question for Republicans is whether Gordon Smith is interested...

Pennsylvania* (Ed Rendell - D)  Will the eight-year curse continue?  Kind of like Michigan, probably, in generic terms.

Rhode Island* (Don Carcieri - R) There are Republicans in Rhode Island?  Is Lincoln Chafee interested (oh wait, he's a Dem now)?  I get my drift.

South Carolina* (Mark Sanford - R) Democrats have a few possible candidates here, but demographics and surroundings probably favor the Republican.

South Dakota* (Mike Rounds - R) Only way this goes Democrat in my mind is if Rounds and Herseth-Sandlin decide to switch spots.

Tennessee* (Phil Bredesen - D) Both Lincoln Davis and Harold Ford are good candidates, but the TN GOP will probably put up a good candidate too and would be favored, I would think.

Texas (Rick Perry - R) Question is: Will Rick Perry run and hide when Hutchinson formally enters or will he battle?  In a GE, Hutchinson can't be beaten barring conservative 3rd party troublemaker, whereas I suspect people are tired of Rick Perry.  Of course, Dems, picking an urban city Texas mayor is the first step towards losing against anyone (hint, hint, wink, wink - Lunar).

Vermont (Jim Douglas - R) If Douglas can't be beaten in 2008, when can he be beaten?

Wisconsin* (Jim Doyle - D) Will Doyle run again (crappy approval ratings and all)?  What Republican will challenge him?  Could be interesting...

Wyoming* (Dave Freudenthal - D) Dems will probably need an act of God to keep this seat, just fyi...

What do the asterisks mean?

[Sam Spade]

Open seats.

[Sam Spade]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

[© Tweed the Younger]

oh, and Sam, I don't think Rudy runs under any circumstances

[Mr.Phips]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

[Sam Spade]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

It already does happen in Georgia.  Not talking about the federal level, but statewide.

Texas is just waiting for a decent Dem candidate and third-party action.

[dmet41]

New York (David Paterson - D) A black man running for statewide office in New York is never safe. 

So New York wasn't Safe Obama?

Of course it was, but NY state politics is a beast of a different color. 

You have to understand that the race is nowhere near safe at this moment given the present condition of NY's economy and where it may be headed.  Also, Paterson is a *real* black, with a father who was one of the original cronies of Harlem - Obama is really not even comparable except for the skin color.

Finally, I would note that even with Obama's excellent performance in metropolitan areas around this country, his performance in the white-flight areas of NY was, well, pretty much what I expected actually (ie pathetic in comparison).  Keep in mind that a *real* black will have a lot more trouble out there.

I think I've tried to explain this to Smash before, but he won't listen, even though he lives in Nassau County and should witness this first-hand.  Maybe I'll have better luck here.

These statements goes for primaries, as well as the general.

Im sorry but I live in New York and no Republican is ever going to win statewide here anytime soon.  A Republican has to win by two to one upstate, which now leans Democratic, get 60% plus on LI, and hope for a low turnout in the city(which is now around 50% of the states population).  This is like a Democrat winning statewide in Texas or Georgia, it aint gonna happen. 

It already does happen in Georgia.  Not talking about the federal level, but statewide.

Texas is just waiting for a decent Dem candidate and third-party action.

The Democratic Party in NY is not very popular. They control the most disfunctional state assembly and in the last years they have had 2 state wide officals Hevesi and Spitzer get knocked out of office in disgrace. There is a opening for the GOP in NY, they just have to exploit it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

[BushKenya]

Oklahoma should be listed as Lean Democratic.  People tend to forget just how strong our state Democratic party is and Jari Askins (Lt Gov) is very popular and so is Atty Gen Drew Edmonson (D).

[DownWithTheLeft]

Oklahoma should be listed as Lean Democratic Likely Republican.  People tend to forget just how strong our state Democratic party is and Jari Askins (Lt Gov) is very popular and so is Atty Gen Drew Edmonson (D) it's Oklahoma.

Corrected for bias

[Holmes]

But you also have incredible bias for the Republican party.

[Mr.Phips]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

I think you have to move California to lean Dem and Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma to lean Rep. 

[Kevinstat]

Maine* (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Why thank you.  Thank you also for being the first person on this thread to recognize that Maine will hold a Gubernatorial election in 2010.  Tom Allen has, from what I've heard from my parents and a person I work with (I don't watch the local news all the time, or the national news for that matter; I get most of my information on current events online), unequivically stated that he will not run for Governor in 2010 (he may have said for any office in 2010, but there's no other top-ticket elective office in Maine he could run for that's up that year and isn't held by another Democrat who will surely run again), and he has said it is highly unlikely that he will ever run for public office again.

Ex- (by four days) Attorney General Steven Rowe (D) has basically announced besides the speech and pom poms.  Ex-State House Speaker John Richardson (D) is also expected to run, although he's been more coy about it than Rowe.  There are lots of other people who are likely to run and at least one candidate who has already announced (and two according to Politics1.com, but I don't have the mental energy right now to list them all and comment on the likelyhood of their running and their chances should they run.  Still, ...

Maine: John Baldacci (D) is term limited
Leans Democrat.

sounds about right, although I'd say "Likely Not Republican" as I could see an Independent winning (although I don't expect it to happen or even think its as likely as a Republican winning) and with that probability added to the probability in my mind of a Democrat being elected, it seems to warrant a Likely rating rather than a Leans rating.  I probably would just say "Likely Democrat" but no individual Democrat seems strong enough now for me to say that.  Not that Rowe, Richardson and Ex-House Speaker Glenn Cummings who has also been speculated as a candidate are lightweights, but none of them have the aura of dominance that Baldacci seemed to have in 2001, and even he only won in 2002 by 5.7%.

Illinois (likely open seat held by a placeholder after Rod Blagojevich gets removed from office - D)

I corrected that, although I'm not certain about the placeholder part like I am about the part about Rod Blogojevich not being Governor in 2010.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

My list, I updated it:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)

Likely Democratic

Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)

Lean Democratic

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Illinois (likely open seat held by Rod Blagojevich - D)
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)

Pure Tossup

California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Arizona (Jan Brewer - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)

I think you have to move California to lean Dem and Tennessee and possibly Oklahoma to lean Rep. 

It really depends on who the candidates are (of course, this is true for most of the close races), but especially in California, the Dems have a way of picking the worst candidate possible. A Poizner vs. Newsom matchup, for example, would likely end in a Republican victory.

The Democrats' hopes in Tennessee rest on Lincoln Davis. Unless there's another Phil Bredesen hiding out there, Davis is the only person who has a shot at winning. But until he demurs, I'm keeping it a tossup.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Maine* (John Baldacci - D) The ME GOP is not exactly the epitome of a well-run organization and you have all those weird Maine independents running around causing trouble.  So, I have to give Dems the advantage.  Tom Allen, I guess (although his performance against Collins was worse than pathetic).  I defer to Kevinstat here.

Why thank you.  Thank you also for being the first person on this thread to recognize that Maine will hold a Gubernatorial election in 2010.  Tom Allen has, from what I've heard from my parents and a person I work with (I don't watch the local news all the time, or the national news for that matter; I get most of my information on current events online), unequivically stated that he will not run for Governor in 2010 (he may have said for any office in 2010, but there's no other top-ticket elective office in Maine he could run for that's up that year and isn't held by another Democrat who will surely run again), and he has said it is highly unlikely that he will ever run for public office again.

Ex- (by four days) Attorney General Steven Rowe (D) has basically announced besides the speech and pom poms.  Ex-State House Speaker John Richardson (D) is also expected to run, although he's been more coy about it than Rowe.  There are lots of other people who are likely to run and at least one candidate who has already announced (and two according to Politics1.com, but I don't have the mental energy right now to list them all and comment on the likelyhood of their running and their chances should they run.  Still, ...

Maine: John Baldacci (D) is term limited
Leans Democrat.

sounds about right.

Oh crap, I missed two states. South Dakota I added in, but I forgot Maine. I'd say Lean Democrat too.