2010 gubernatorial rankings (because I'm bored)

[DownWithTheLeft]

But you also have incredible bias for the Republican party.

Which happens to be something I share in common with Oklahoma

[Verily]

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)
New York (David Paterson - D) [Bloomberg will not run]

Likely Democratic

Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D) [LOL, probably safe since he's going to be removed from office]

Lean Democratic

New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R) [Tempted to put this higher because there is no possible Republican replacement]
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R) [Ditto]
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D) [State Democratic Party is very strong]
Maine (open seat held by John Baldacci - D) [Safer without Baldacci than with]

Pure Tossup

Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D) [Lt. Gov. is a Republican, yes?]
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) [Republicans should hope Gibbons gets knocked off in the primary]
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)
Tennessee (open seat held by Phil Bredesen - D)

Lean Republican

Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D) [Much like Rhode Island, should probably be lower due to lack of Democratic bench]

Likely Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
Nebraska (open seat (?) held by Dave Heineman - R)
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D) [Hard to see how Brownback loses this]

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R) [But Perry isn't safe in the primary]

[Dan the Roman]

Surprised Massachusetts has failed to make the lists. It probably belongs in slight lean Democrat, though most of the Democrats I have spoken with in the legislature are more skeptical of Patrick's odds than outside observers.

Its also highly likely the state treasurer, Tim Cahill, will challenge Patrick, either in the primary, or general(switching parties). That said:

Safe Democratic

Arkansas (Mike Beebe - D)
Colorado (Bill Ritter - D)
New Hampshire (John Lynch - D)

Likely Democratic

Iowa (Chet Culver - D)
New York (David Paterson - D)
Ohio (Ted Strickland - D)
Illinois (Rod Blagojevich - D)

Lean Democratic
Oregon (open seat held by Ted Kulongoski - D)- No GOP bench
Maryland (Martin O'Malley - D) - in serious trouble especially if he faces Gilchrist, tempted to place in tossup
Massachusetts(Deval Patrick - D) - Primary challenge indicates vulnerability. Highly dependent on GOP recruitment.
New Mexico (open seat held by Bill Richardson - D)
Rhode Island (open seat held by Don Carcieri - R)
Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R)
Wisconsin (Jim Doyle - D) - likely to be a rehash of the 2006 AG race
Maine (open seat held by John Baldacci - D)
Pure Tossup

Arizona (open seat held by Janet Napolitano - D)
California (open seat held by Arnold Schwarzenegger - R)
Michigan (open seat held by Jennifer Granholm - D)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty - R) - Much stronger now then in 2006
Nevada (Jim Gibbons - R) [Republicans should hope Gibbons gets knocked off in the primary]
Pennsylvania (open seat held by Ed Rendell - D)

Lean Republican

Alabama (open seat held by Bob Riley - R)
Oklahoma (open seat held by Brad Henry - D)  - Strong Dem candidates, bad year
South Carolina (open seat held by Mark Sanford - R)
Vermont (Jim Douglas - R)(may well be open)
Wyoming (open seat held by Dave Freudenthal - D)

Likely Republican


Georgia (open seat held by Sonny Perdue - R)
South Dakota (open seat held by Mike Rounds - R)
Kansas (open seat held by Kathleen Sebelius - D)

Safe Republican

Alaska (Sarah Palin - R)
Connecticut (Jodi Rell - R)
Florida (Charlie Crist - R)
Idaho (Butch Otter - R)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman - R)
Texas (Rick Perry - R) [But Perry isn't safe in the primary]

[Verily]

You're right; Massachusetts appears to be missing on the initial list.

If SUSA is correct, Patrick has positive approval ratings, hardly territory for a primary challenge or Republican victory, factionalism in the Mass. Democratic Party or not.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=62a7fa20-faf5-4a24-b4c9-f4601367d155

Poll is from October 2008 so, if something has happened since then, it isn't reflected.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Damn, I'm really bad at this. Three states I missed at the outset. So who exactly could beat Patrick among the Republicans?

[Psychic Octopus]

California should be more of a tossup. it depends, If they nominate Newsom it'll be close, If they nominate Villagrossa, Brown, Sanchez, or Feinstein it'll be a walk for dems.

[Dan the Roman]

You're right; Massachusetts appears to be missing on the initial list.

If SUSA is correct, Patrick has positive approval ratings, hardly territory for a primary challenge or Republican victory, factionalism in the Mass. Democratic Party or not.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=62a7fa20-faf5-4a24-b4c9-f4601367d155

Poll is from October 2008 so, if something has happened since then, it isn't reflected.

Patrick is one of those politicians where a favorable/unfavorable rating is not very useful, since most people kind of think he's a good guy, and where approval is dependent on what you ask.

The Rasmussen questions are actually more informative by dividing things into Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor. This is important because most people in the state would not rate him as poor, but most also don't think he is doing a good job.

Anyway here are the October Rasmussen results:

How do you rate the way that Deval Patrick is performing his role as Governor? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

6% Excellent

32% Good

39% Fair

20% Poor

3% Not Sure

http://www.politickerma.com/jeremyjacobs/1553/rasmussen-patrick-s-job-approval-dips-38-percent

Basically Patrick has very weak dedicated support, about a third of the population that likes him somewhat, and a fifth who hate him. The remaining 40% are unhappy with his performance, but are currently gravitating between keeping him or not.

In a good year for the incumbent's party, this is not a fatal situation. Most responders who say "fair" will come home. But with an unpopular legislature, a billion dollar local aid cut coming up, and the potential of 2010 being an anti-incumbent midterm, those numbers could turn south for Patrick really quickly.

That said, I would not put him in the very vulnerable category so much as the potentially vulnerable. Depending on events he will either lose 51-47 or win 53-44.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Hawaii (open seat held by Linda Lingle - R) [(no Republican bench)]

I disagree, Lt. Gov. Aiona would make a fine candidate

[Brittain33]

Dan, there was a Boston Globe poll I posted here a month ago showing Patrick with considerably better numbers than that. Cahill's awareness was somewhat better than Murray's, but both were fairly low.

I am not connected like you are but I don't think people are in a mood to throw Patrick out. I don't think he could lose a primary because Reich's army will rise up for another go and combined with Patrick's allies keep him in control. What compelling argument does Cahill have? We shouldn't cut spending as much?

[WalterMitty]

dont blame me.  i didnt vote for patrick in 06.

i would likely vote for him over cahill or charlie baker.