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Author Topic: Real Virginia was Really Useless  (Read 5522 times)
Lunar
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« on: November 30, 2008, 04:08:39 pm »
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/29/AR2008112901698.html

Read the whole article, it's good.



Democrats have made major gains with white voters in wealthy, well-educated Northern Virginia. Four years ago, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) lost the white vote in Northern Virginia by 7 percentage points. This year, Obama won that demographic by 14 points.

Robert Lang, a demographer at the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, said affluent whites in Northern Virginia, like other heavily populated areas in the Northeast and Midwest, "now seem to trust the Democrats with the economy and don't trust the Republicans with civil liberties."

Lang has concluded that Obama would have carried Virginia
by about 30,000 votes this year because of Democratic strength in Northern Virginia even if he performed no better in other parts of the state than Kerry did four years ago.


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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2008, 01:51:30 am »
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So.... anyone else find it amusing that Obama could have carried Virginia on NOVA alone (supposing he did as well as Kerry everywhere else -- not hard considering he won by 9.25% of a higher margin nationally than Kerry did)?

McCain made a big but underreported campaign decision to drop all ads from the D.C. media market late in the game and, while that might have been the right move, Obama was absolutely able to capitalize on it.
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« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2008, 02:02:56 am »
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So.... anyone else find it amusing that Obama could have carried Virginia on NOVA alone (supposing he did as well as Kerry everywhere else -- not hard considering he won by 9.25% of a higher margin nationally than Kerry did)?

McCain made a big but underreported campaign decision to drop all ads from the D.C. media market late in the game and, while that might have been the right move, Obama was absolutely able to capitalize on it.

Can NOVA permanently carry VA for the Dems?
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« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2008, 02:13:03 am »
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Well, I mean...  it depends on sticky their support for Democrats are.  Obama did win by 7% nationally..
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« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2008, 10:38:37 am »
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Florida is the same way.
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« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2008, 11:32:14 am »
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It's a surprise. Why? Because NoVa. is the most Dem area of the state and it still only casts a minority of the votes. So it is not intuitively what you think of as a "decisive region": the margins there would have to be pretty big to overcome the GOP 2004 margins in the rest of the state. And unlike other big counties that sometimes carry their states, NoVa. doesn't even include half of its metropolitan area or its central city. It's less intuitive than say, Miami carrying Florida for the Dems all by itself- and we know that doesn't happen.

Also, Lang's counterfactual is harmed by the fact that Obama would not have carried NoVa. by the margins he did if he was not also being better downstate than Kerry did in 2004.

So what the heck happened? I guess two things- Obama was just a good candidate for the state, and Dems invested a lot here.
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« Reply #6 on: December 02, 2008, 11:42:50 am »
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And also McCain gave up on being competitive in D.C. after initially trying to match Obama ad-per-ad there.

It's just interesting that Obama would not necessarily have had to be more appealing than Kerry anywhere else.
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2008, 02:31:29 am »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2008, 03:23:17 am »
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Florida is the same way.

No, not even remotely comparable.
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2008, 09:14:36 am »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?

Very good question. That is one thing I really wasn't expecting. And black turnout really can't explain all of it.
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2008, 09:37:05 am »
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There were swings to the Democrat, on 2004, in all four VA regions and NOVA was a smaller share of the electorate in 2008

North 26% (27%): Obama 64% (Kerry 53%); McCain 35% (Bush 46%)
Southeast 20% (20%): Obama 56% (Kerry 48%); McCain 43% (Bush 51%)
East/Richmond 37% (36%): Obama 48% (Kerry 42%); McCain 50% (Bush 57%)
Shenandoah-Southwest 17% (17%): Obama 40% (Kerry 38%); McCain 59% (Bush 62%)

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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2008, 09:39:09 am »
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North still had the highest swings. Still why did the southeast and Richmond swing more than the national average? Are there liberal whites moving in?
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2008, 10:58:30 am »
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North still had the highest swings.

That it did but there aren't many blacks in NOVA (relative to the Richmond area and southeast of the state)

Quote
Still why did the southeast and Richmond swing more than the national average? Are there liberal whites moving in?

The majority of counties and cities Obama carried are white majority and in some its clear that he won a majority of the white vote; yet others seem racially polarised

Obama carried the following:

Northeast Virginia

Alexandria: 72% (+5) [59.1% white]
Arlington: 72% (+4) [65.3% white]
Fairfax: 60% (+6) [60.1% white]
Fairfax City: 58% (+7) [64.3% white]
Falls Church 70% (+5) [77.3% white]
Loudon: 54% (+10) [67.9% white]
Manassas: 55% (+12) [54.2% white]
Manassas Park: 60% (+15) [49.7% white]
Prince William: 58% (+11) [52.3% white]

Southeast

Chesapeake: 51% [63.5% white]
Frankin City: 64% (+10) [54.5% black]
Hampton: 69% (+11) [47.4% black]
Newport News: 64% (+12) [48.3% white]
Norfolk: 71% (+9) [45.9% white]
Northampton: 58% (+8) [54.2% white]
Portsmouth: 70% (+9) [52.8% black]
Suffolk: 54% (+6) [54.2% white]
Surry: 61% (+6) [49.5% white]
Williamsburg: 64% (+13) [77.2% white]

Central Virginia

Albemarle: 59% (+8) [80.9% white]
Brunswick: 63% (+4) [56.0% black]
Buckingham: 50% (+4) [60.4% white]
Caroline: 56% (+7) [65.1% white]
Charles City: 69% (+6) [46.4% black]
Charlottesville: 79% (+7) [68.6% white]
Danville: 59% (+9) [50.9% white]
Emporia: 65% (+9) [57.5% black]
Essex: 55% (+9) [57.1% white]
Greenville: 64% (+5) [59.4% black]
Henrico: 56% (+10) [62.7% white]
Hopewell: 56% (+11) [56.0% white]
King and Queen: 52% (+6) [64.5% white]
Nelson: 54% (+4) [81.9% white]
Petersburg: 89% (+8) [77.8% black]
Prince Edward: 54% (+4) [61.4% white]
Richmond City: 79% (+9) [55.0% black]
Westmoreland: 55% (+6) [64.7% white]

Shenandoah

Covington: 56% (+4) [81.4% white]
Fredericksburg: 64% (+10) [68.5% white]
Harrisonburg: 58% (+15) [74.7% white]
Lexington: 62% (+5) [84.2% white]
Martinsville: 64% (+10) [53.0% white]
Montgomery: 52% (+7) [87.8% white]
Radford: 54% (+8) [85.7% white]
Roanoke City: 61% (+9) [67.6% white]
Staunton: 51% (+12) [84.2% white]
Sussex: 62% (+6) [60.5% black]
Winchester: 52% (+9) [74.4% white]

Red denotes counties/cities which switched from Republican to Democrat

Obama clearly made impressive gains among whites in Virginia, but whether liberal whites are moving in I don't know. That said, self-styled liberals accounted for 21% of the Virginia electorate, up from 17% in 2004

I'm wondering if many of those small Shenandoah cities are college towns, which might explain his surge in several of them because many rural counties in this region saw swings to McCain

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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2008, 01:21:07 pm »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?

Very good question. That is one thing I really wasn't expecting. And black turnout really can't explain all of it.

The same metro appeal thing that Obama had nationwide.
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2008, 09:31:32 am »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?

Very good question. That is one thing I really wasn't expecting. And black turnout really can't explain all of it.

The same metro appeal thing that Obama had nationwide.

Yeah I suppose so. I think one of the reasons I didn't think Obama would do as well is because of the many military installations there. Of course Obama didn't do bad at all among the military.( for a democrat)
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2008, 10:24:18 am »
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Florida is the same way.

No, not even remotely comparable.
Not at all comparable as far as swings/trends/etc go.
Virginia in 2008 was doing a rather good Florida impression, though. Think about it: One big but not all-dominating metro that is Democratic, more so than the state, but not a blowout. Several other metros. Lots of Republican countryside, much of which isn't *strictly* rural (non-metropolitan) either. Southern traditions, lots of northern newcomers (but in Florida, lots of southern newcomers too - but then it just simply has grown far more during our lifetime).
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« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2008, 12:55:11 pm »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?

Very good question. That is one thing I really wasn't expecting. And black turnout really can't explain all of it.

The same metro appeal thing that Obama had nationwide.

Yeah I suppose so. I think one of the reasons I didn't think Obama would do as well is because of the many military installations there. Of course Obama didn't do bad at all among the military.( for a democrat)

The military personnel don't vote at the bases.
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2008, 03:16:01 pm »
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So what explains the big swings in the non-NOVA parts of the state: Richmond, Va Beach, Norfolk, etc?

Very good question. That is one thing I really wasn't expecting. And black turnout really can't explain all of it.

The same metro appeal thing that Obama had nationwide.

Yeah I suppose so. I think one of the reasons I didn't think Obama would do as well is because of the many military installations there. Of course Obama didn't do bad at all among the military.( for a democrat)

The military personnel don't vote at the bases.
Some do.

How many exactly is hard to say due to widespread postal voting etc.
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« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2008, 07:51:09 pm »
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North still had the highest swings. Still why did the southeast and Richmond swing more than the national average? Are there liberal whites moving in?

Part of it could be that McCain's campaign gave up relatively early on the D.C. media market, finding it too expensive and reaching too few potential voters.

Only Obama was on the air
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2009, 11:59:34 pm »
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So.... anyone else find it amusing that Obama could have carried Virginia on NOVA alone (supposing he did as well as Kerry everywhere else -- not hard considering he won by 9.25% of a higher margin nationally than Kerry did)?

McCain made a big but underreported campaign decision to drop all ads from the D.C. media market late in the game and, while that might have been the right move, Obama was absolutely able to capitalize on it.

Can NOVA permanently carry VA for the Dems?

The Democrats also need Richmond and parts of southeastern Virginia.

Northern Virginia has huge numbers of liberal-leaning government employees and contractors who know whence their pay comes, and it has been growing rapidly. This is enough to offset Democratic losses in rural Virginia. Demographic shifts can swing states.

It could also be that Suburbia everywhere has been drifting Democratic. Suburbia is increasingly urban in its needs for Big Government -- public buildings such as schools, roads, and sanitation systems. Suburban life is no longer semi-rural; it is legitimately urban. Even if it doesn't have the poverty of some of the cities that it surrounds, it tends liberal because of its needs. It is also becoming less racist than it used to be. 
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« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2009, 01:44:23 am »
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So.... anyone else find it amusing that Obama could have carried Virginia on NOVA alone (supposing he did as well as Kerry everywhere else -- not hard considering he won by 9.25% of a higher margin nationally than Kerry did)?

McCain made a big but underreported campaign decision to drop all ads from the D.C. media market late in the game and, while that might have been the right move, Obama was absolutely able to capitalize on it.

Can NOVA permanently carry VA for the Dems?

The Democrats also need Richmond and parts of southeastern Virginia.

Northern Virginia has huge numbers of liberal-leaning government employees and contractors who know whence their pay comes, and it has been growing rapidly. This is enough to offset Democratic losses in rural Virginia. Demographic shifts can swing states.

It could also be that Suburbia everywhere has been drifting Democratic. Suburbia is increasingly urban in its needs for Big Government -- public buildings such as schools, roads, and sanitation systems. Suburban life is no longer semi-rural; it is legitimately urban. Even if it doesn't have the poverty of some of the cities that it surrounds, it tends liberal because of its needs. It is also becoming less racist than it used to be. 

Not to mention that many of the suburban areas had a large amount of moderate to liberal Rockefeller type of Republicans who have been completely turned off by the rightward shift of the GOP especially on social issues. 
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« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2009, 09:21:15 pm »
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I think, also, that 2008 will be the exception in terms of how the Democrats perform in southwestern Virginia.  At the same time Obama was losing badly, we saw Mark Warner rack up a huge margin the area.  The right Democrat will still do extremely well in that area, and, combined with the expected big victories in NOVA, the Democrats will continue to win Virginia for a long time.
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2009, 01:58:59 am »
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Southwestern VA doesn't matter.  compare the vote totals there to NOVA.
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« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2009, 12:19:32 pm »
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Southwestern VA doesn't matter.  compare the vote totals there to NOVA.

I know, I'm just syaing that the Democrats will normally need even less of a win in NOVA, because they'll have votes coming in from the Southwest.
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« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2009, 01:20:17 pm »
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I think, also, that 2008 will be the exception in terms of how the Democrats perform in southwestern Virginia.  At the same time Obama was losing badly, we saw Mark Warner rack up a huge margin the area.  The right Democrat will still do extremely well in that area, and, combined with the expected big victories in NOVA, the Democrats will continue to win Virginia for a long time.

Warner vs. Gilmore probably isn't a good model for how future competitive races will roll.

If Deeds wins (he's certainly the 3rd fav as of now) you might certainly be right for at least the next four years.
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