Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[cinyc]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

What about Lowndes?

What about Lowndes?  Chambliss is ahead last I checked.

[Хahar 🤔]

I say we lock this thread until counties start coming in as a whole.

[Dan the Roman]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

What about Lowndes?

What about Lowndes?  Chambliss is ahead last I checked.

He is now. He was down 86-14 earlier.

[Alcon]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

[Sam Spade]

Echoing Sam: People stop acting as if the counties are uniformly distributed please

It's the very worst way to analyze this.  Wait for the counties to be completely reported!

That being said, as I stated before, I wouldn't be surprised with a Chambliss 10+ victory.

[Meeker]

Echols County goes from 69% Chambliss to 77% Chambliss.

There's like 12 people there though.

[Dan the Roman]

Yeah, this is looking like 56-44 or so.

[cinyc]

Echoing Sam: People stop acting as if the counties are uniformly distributed please

It's the very worst way to analyze this.  Wait for the counties to be completely reported!

Fine.  Echols County is supposedly all in:

December:
Chambliss 355  (77%)
Martin 105  (23%)
Total 460

November:
Chambliss 731  69%     
Martin 296     28%
Total 1027

Chambliss won by 8 points more than in November.  Turnout is way down - 45% of November levels.

[ag]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

What about Lowndes?

What about Lowndes?  Chambliss is ahead last I checked.

But when you wrote your previous post he wasn't These things are changing about twice a minute now - wait another half hour.

[Lunar]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

Quitman is only 3/4 according to the SoS it looks like, but whatever.

And Echols has only 400 votes in and gave a 40% margin for Chambliss last time, a 50% drop in turnout too from November too.

If Martin wins, it's not because he racked up a high total in these crap small counties people !

[Alcon]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

Quitman is only 3/4 according to the SoS it looks like, but whatever.

And Echols has only 400 votes in and gave a 40% margin for Chambliss last time, a 50% drop in turnout too from November too.

If Martin wins, it's not because he racked up a high total in these crap small counties people !

It's possible that Martin's turnout machine is crappy in rural black areas and super-fantastic-awesome in the urban areas -- but otherwise a result like Quitman is extremely conspicuous.

Although they did just knock it down to 3/4 reporting .

[Dan the Roman]

My god Karen Handel sucks as Secretary of State. These county results are useless, because chances are even if all precincts are in the results are still wrong. This is just embarrassing.

[Verily]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

Quitman is only 3/4 according to the SoS it looks like, but whatever.

And Echols has only 400 votes in and gave a 40% margin for Chambliss last time, a 50% drop in turnout too from November too.

If Martin wins, it's not because he racked up a high total in these crap small counties people !

It's possible that Martin's turnout machine is crappy in rural black areas and super-fantastic-awesome in the urban areas -- but otherwise a result like Quitman is extremely conspicuous.

Although they did just knock it down to 3/4 reporting .

We should all know to ignore partial results in any Southern county with a substantial number of both whites and blacks.

[Alcon]

Berrien County - 10/11 reporting

74-26 Chambliss this time

64-32 last time

I'm really seeing no numbers that indicate competitiveness.

[cinyc]

Gwinnett is about 40% in:
Chambliss 32,034 (64% (+11 from November))
Martin      18,012  (36% (-7 from November))    

[Lunar]

Berrien County - 10/11 reporting

74-26 Chambliss this time

64-32 last time

I'm really seeing no numbers that indicate competitiveness.

His margins aren't as important as relative vote gain.  I think Chambliss will win, but it's all about whoever stops the turnout bleeding the most.

[Alcon]

Bacon County - 7/7 reporting

79.7-20.3 Chambliss

Last time 69.8-28.1

Turnout in the black rural areas doesn't seem to be especially good.  Urban Atlanta is going to have to make up for a HELL of a lot here, Lunar.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Chambliss

[Dan the Roman]

At least it looks like the good guys will win the Court of Appeals race.

[cinyc]

My god Karen Handel sucks as Secretary of State. These county results are useless, because chances are even if all precincts are in the results are still wrong. This is just embarrassing.

The Georgia SoS's site is better than, say, New York's, which shows absolutely no results whatsoever.  Partial data is better than no data.

[Alcon]

Quitman County - 4/4 reporting

Martin 51.5% (-5.6)
Chambliss 48.5% (+8.1)

[Lunar]

Bacon County - 7/7 reporting

79.7-20.3 Chambliss

Last time 69.8-28.1

Turnout in the black rural areas doesn't seem to be especially good.  Urban Atlanta is going to have to make up for a HELL of a lot here, Lunar.

Natch

[Lunar]

Doing 30% better in Taliaferro or so for the M

[Keystone Phil]

Spanking. Absolute spanking.

[Meeker]

Spanking. Absolute spanking.

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?