Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff
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Poll
Question: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. runoff
#1
Saxby Chambliss, Republican		  
#2
Jim Martin, Democrat		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff  (Read 26760 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #125 on: December 02, 2008, 08:09:44 PM »
TALIAFERRO

Martin 64.9% (+0.1)
Chambliss 35.1% (+1.7)

Swing: Chambliss +1.6

Maybe black turnout wasn't as bad as Quitman indicated
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cinyc
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« Reply #126 on: December 02, 2008, 08:10:28 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 08:06:02 PM
Quitman County - 4/4 reporting

Martin 51.5% (-5.6)
Chambliss 48.5% (+8.1)

Quitman county turnout was half of what it was in November.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #127 on: December 02, 2008, 08:10:45 PM »
Whoa I was right.  Look at the margin Chambliss is racking up in Cobb.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #128 on: December 02, 2008, 08:11:14 PM »
I'm close to calling it on my blog.  Chambliss is looking like he's going to take counties he lost the 1st time.  It's almost over, IMO
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #129 on: December 02, 2008, 08:12:01 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:09:37 PM

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

And it'll go down to what? 57% to 43%? Looks like my prediction.  Wink
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Lunar
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« Reply #130 on: December 02, 2008, 08:12:36 PM »
I think he'll win too, but I am no more certain now than I was two hours ago.

Patience

We need to see the urban areas report first people!
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Meeker
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« Reply #131 on: December 02, 2008, 08:12:44 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 02, 2008, 08:12:01 PM
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:09:37 PM

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

And it'll go down to what? 57% to 43%? Looks like my prediction.  Wink

My point was that commenting on the margin right now is very silly.
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Alcon
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« Reply #132 on: December 02, 2008, 08:13:11 PM »
PIKE

Chambliss 80.0% (+7.6)
Martin 20.0% (-3.7)

Swing: Chambliss +11.2

WILKES

Chambliss 57.3% (+8.0)
Martin 42.7% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.0

I'm more certain than two hours ago, but we'll see!
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cinyc
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« Reply #133 on: December 02, 2008, 08:13:17 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:09:37 PM

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

Gwinnett is about 40% in.  Some precincts from Cherokee, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Jasper are reporting.  There's nothing from Fulton, Dekalb or Cobb.
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Meeker
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« Reply #134 on: December 02, 2008, 08:13:57 PM »
Quote from: cinyc on December 02, 2008, 08:13:17 PM
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:09:37 PM

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

Gwinnett is about 40% in.  Some precincts from Cherokee, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Jasper are reporting.  There's nothing from Fulton, Dekalb or Cobb.

I meant "urban".
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #135 on: December 02, 2008, 08:14:32 PM »
I want to make sure there's no unknown incredible turnout in metro Atlanta that I missed, b/c otherwise this one's quite over and it will not be close.  Northern Georgia is a real massacre - you'd think Martin's name starts with an O.
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Lunar
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« Reply #136 on: December 02, 2008, 08:15:03 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on December 02, 2008, 08:13:11 PM
PIKE

Chambliss 80.0% (+7.6)
Martin 20.0% (-3.7)

Swing: Chambliss +11.2

WILKES

Chambliss 57.3% (+8.0)
Martin 42.7% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.0

I'm more certain than two hours ago, but we'll see!

Yeah those two are the first real pieces of bad news
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Alcon
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« Reply #137 on: December 02, 2008, 08:15:42 PM »
PULASKI

Chambliss 63.4% (+7.7)
Martin 36.6% (-5.5)

Swing: Chambliss +13.2
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Lunar
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« Reply #138 on: December 02, 2008, 08:16:46 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on December 02, 2008, 08:14:32 PM
I want to make sure there's no unknown incredible turnout in metro Atlanta that I missed, b/c otherwise this one's quite over and it will not be close.  Northern Georgia is a real massacre - you'd think Martin's name starts with an O.

Reports are that Northern Virginia had quite high turnout.  Some poll workers said it only dropped from 11% turnout to 10% turnout Roll Eyes
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cinyc
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« Reply #139 on: December 02, 2008, 08:16:58 PM »
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:13:57 PM
Quote from: cinyc on December 02, 2008, 08:13:17 PM
Quote from: VP Meeker on December 02, 2008, 08:09:37 PM

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

Gwinnett is about 40% in.  Some precincts from Cherokee, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Jasper are reporting.  There's nothing from Fulton, Dekalb or Cobb.

I meant "urban".

There's nothing from Fulton or Dekalb, then.  But Cobb will partially offset those counties, anyway.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #140 on: December 02, 2008, 08:17:22 PM »
BACON (100%)
Chambliss 1,402 80% (+10%)
Martin 358 20% (-8%)
Margin: Chambliss +18%
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Alcon
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« Reply #141 on: December 02, 2008, 08:18:32 PM »
CRISP

Chambliss 82.3% (+25.2)
Martin 17.7% (-23.1)

Swing: Chambliss +48.3

I'm calling probable typo there
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Lunar
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« Reply #142 on: December 02, 2008, 08:19:10 PM »
I wonder if Martin will have similar swings in his favor in Dekalb, Richmond, Clayton, Fulton etc.

Hmmm

Turnout in these rural areas is how much lower, on average?  50%ish?
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #143 on: December 02, 2008, 08:19:17 PM »
If Martin can't win with 35% black turnout on Nov 5, he ain't winning now. If fact, I can't see any Democrat winning Georgia for a while if Obama couldn't win Georgia with 35% black turnout.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #144 on: December 02, 2008, 08:21:03 PM »
First results from Fulton:

Martin: 5,533 (51%)
Chambliss: 5,271 (49%)
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cinyc
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« Reply #145 on: December 02, 2008, 08:21:21 PM »
28% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       326,516        64.8%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    176,979     35.2%     
     Totals    503,495     
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cinyc
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« Reply #146 on: December 02, 2008, 08:22:27 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2008, 08:30:25 PM by cinyc »
Quote from: Lunar II on December 02, 2008, 08:19:10 PM
I wonder if Martin will have similar swings in his favor in Dekalb, Richmond, Clayton, Fulton etc.

Hmmm

Turnout in these rural areas is how much lower, on average?  50%ish?

Turnout was 45-50% of the November turnout in the two completed counties I checked.

Edit:  It's probably slightly lower, since I didn't take into account November third party voters.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #147 on: December 02, 2008, 08:24:00 PM »
Unfortunately, got to go.

But this one's over with barring something strange from DeKalb/Fulton.
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Lunar
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« Reply #148 on: December 02, 2008, 08:25:01 PM »
Dekalb starting to deliver some votes
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cinyc
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« Reply #149 on: December 02, 2008, 08:28:04 PM »
13% of Dekalb in:
Martin  35,748  (69% (-7 from November full county))
Chambliss 15,826  (31% (+10 from November full county))
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