Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[Lunar]

You know, I was half-tempted to make the 15-point Chambliss call this afternoon because it felt like that type of race.  Decided to stay conservative with the calls - such is life.

Have you ever not made a prediction error because of being too conservative in your call?

Oh, dear God, no.  I've made of errors with *out there* predictions.  In fact, I'm made plenty of errors period, regardless of what CfromNJ might say.

Just saying, your predictions are rarely too extreme (both ways)

[cinyc]

95% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       1,191,123        57.7%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    872,459     42.3%     
     Totals    2,063,582     

What's out is largely in Fulton, so we're probably looking at a slight narrowing of Chambliss' lead - probably around 57-43 when all is in.

Edit: Turnout in the four big Atlanta metro counties (Cobb, Dekalb, Fulton & Gwinnett) looks like will end up about 60% of November as of right now.

Edit 2: Gwinnett is all in.  Turnout there was 58% of November.

[Aizen]

i hope you rethuglicans are happy that you stole a senate seat via fraud that should have gone too martin.

[Lunar]

i hope you rethuglicans are happy that you stole a senate seat via fraud that should have gone too martin.

Lol

[rbt48]

Saxby Chambliss       Republican       1,199,654        57.5%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    886,658     42.5%
(This with 96% reporting, 1 precinct out in Bibb, DeKalb, 2 out in Fulton, 1 out in Muscogee, 1 out in Richmond.  Remaining missing county precincts favor Chambliss).

I'd guess the final will be 57.3 - 42.7.

i hope you rethuglicans are happy that you stole a senate seat via fraud that should have gone too martin.

Well, maybe the California Supreme Court will get jurisdiction and rule that all Martin votes from the first election should be counted for him in the runoff as well.  Clearly, they might reason, this was the voters' intent.  Economic repression kept them from the polls this time.

[Lincoln Republican]

Expected but still depressing. This is a clear-cut case of "Good versus Evil" and unfortunately evil triumphed on this day.

Get off your partisan soapbox and give Chambliss credit for his great victory.

Chambliss was, obviously, the far superior candidate.

Neither of these candidates is evil. 

[Lincoln Republican]

i hope you rethuglicans are happy that you stole a senate seat via fraud that should have gone too martin.

Again, get off your partisan soapbox.

Chambliss crushed Martin for good reason.  Chambliss was the far superior candidate.

Your fraud allegation is laughable.

[Aizen]

Expected but still depressing. This is a clear-cut case of "Good versus Evil" and unfortunately evil triumphed on this day.

Get off your partisan soapbox and give Chambliss credit for his great victory.

Chambliss was, obviously, the far superior candidate.

Neither of these candidates is evil. 

why don't i get off my partisan soapbox and give YOU credit for YOUR victory

and by credit i mean my fist

and by victory i mean face

[Lunar]

honest question: are you high Aizen?


It's not a rhetorical question

[memphis]

oMGzzz, bradly affect. Martin did WAY beter in teh pollzzz!!!!1111

[Lincoln Republican]

Expected but still depressing. This is a clear-cut case of "Good versus Evil" and unfortunately evil triumphed on this day.

Get off your partisan soapbox and give Chambliss credit for his great victory.

Chambliss was, obviously, the far superior candidate.

Neither of these candidates is evil. 

why don't i get off my partisan soapbox and give YOU credit for YOUR victory

and by credit i mean my fist

and by victory i mean face

Ya, ya, you want a piece of me?  You want a piece of me?

I'll crush you like a grape then stomp on you like I'm making wine.

[Keystone Phil]

97% reporting...

Chambliss - 57.4% 
Martin - 42.6% 

Chambliss - 57%
Martin - 43%

[Aizen]

Expected but still depressing. This is a clear-cut case of "Good versus Evil" and unfortunately evil triumphed on this day.

Get off your partisan soapbox and give Chambliss credit for his great victory.

Chambliss was, obviously, the far superior candidate.

Neither of these candidates is evil. 

why don't i get off my partisan soapbox and give YOU credit for YOUR victory

and by credit i mean my fist

and by victory i mean face

Ya, ya, you want a piece of me?  You want a piece of me?

I'll crush you like a grape then stomp on you like I'm making wine.

i'm going to send you to the recycle bin

which i will then right click on and select "empty recycle bin"

because otherwise you would be taking up unnecessary space

[Tender Branson]

So, that's what happens when you have a GA race without the Obama coattails.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Did anyone actually believe Martin would win after failing to do so on election day besides Lief?

[Lunar]

Did anyone actually believe Martin would win after failing to do so on election day besides Lief?

I thought Obama's previously amazing turnout machine had an inside gut draw (1-8 is what I said, but I should have given it worse odds) at being transferable to a non-Obama candidate. 

[Lunar]

REPUBLICANS STRIKE BACK WITH SENATE WIN




THANKS DRUDGE

The GOP is back!

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Never would have guessed it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did anyone actually believe Martin would win after failing to do so on election day besides Lief?

I thought Obama's previously amazing turnout machine had an inside gut draw (1-8 is what I said, but I should have given it worse odds) at being transferable to a non-Obama candidate. 

Look, the reason for the (relatively) huge black&etc turnout in November wasn't an "amazing machine*", but identity politics; the driving force behind American voting patterns for over two hundred years now. People involved in campaigns and that side of politics generally are often apt to exaggerate own importance of such things.
There was no reason to expect Martin to even come close, certainly not after the final figures on early voting came out. There's really only one surprising feature to last night's result; Martin's all-too-obvious collapse with rural white voters.

In any case, powerful machines are always locally based, take years to build and can get rusty very quickly.

[Lunar]

I was thinking of his primary wins, not November.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was thinking of his primary wins, not November.

Identity politics was even more a factor in those than in November...

[Lunar]

um... his organizational machine showed no ability to transcend identity politics in all of those lilly-white states?

[cinyc]

um... his organizational machine showed no ability to transcend identity politics in all of those lilly-white states?

1) Georgia is not a lily white state.
2) Obama never really built up much of a machine in Georgia.  He moved campaign folks to North Carolina fairly early on.
3) Identity politics played a role in forcing the Georgia runoff.  Had Obama not been on the Democrat ticket, African American turnout would have been lower in November - closer to 2004's purported 25% than 2008's purported 30% - and Chambliss would have won the race outright.  Heck, even a 1 point shift in the African American vote would probably have been enough to avoid the runoff.   
4) Even with historically high African American turnout, Martin couldn't win.   Martin's defeat isn't surprising.

[Lunar]

Georgia is not a lily white state.

I agree.  But his campaign showed non-identity organizing capabilities.  Perhaps not in the Deep South, however.  But they showed they were damn good organizers regardless throughout the primaries.

2) Obama never really built up much of a machine in Georgia.  He moved campaign folks to North Carolina fairly early on.

I thought it was Ohio, but yeah.  I was talking about capabilities and technique.

3) Identity politics played a role in forcing the Georgia runoff.  Had Obama not been on the Democrat ticket, African American turnout would have been lower in November - closer to 2004's purported 25% than 2008's purported 30% - and Chambliss would have won the race outright.  Heck, even a 1 point shift in the African American vote would probably have been enough to avoid the runoff.   

Yesh

4) Even with historically high African American turnout, Martin couldn't win.   Martin's defeat isn't surprising.

That's a point?

I gave him an 8-1 odds of winning and you're telling me that his win wasn't surprising?

[minionofmidas]

Wow, Saxby Shameless brings out the absolute worst in Republican partisans.  And not much better sentiments in Democratic partisans either.

This horrible thread alone is almost grounds enough to have the man expelled from the Senate.


Yah, it often happens that when a candidate expected to win handily is forced into a second round, he does worse than anyone predicted there. Right after election day, it seemed possible that that would happen here. But it became obvious pretty quickly that it wouldn't, that it would be all about race and turnout. Still about a point or three more Republican than I would have thought likely.