Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[Lunar]

Chambliss by 4 to 6. Does anyone in the area know who has the better ground game for the election?

Same number of offices, 538's new article documents a comparison a bit.  Martin appears to have far better staffed offices and is focusing on door-to-door rather than phonebanking (which is what Saxby is doing).  Saxby has had bigger and better rallies and better cash on hand, which will aid him as well. And, of course, the Obama elements of Jim's campaign are far more talented.

[Eraserhead]

Chambliss, 54-46

[ottermax]

I expect Chambliss to win, it wasn't like he was going to lose in the first place and African Americans are not going to turn out as strongly. Sorry Jim Martin, I'm just being realistic.

I don't think I would even want a Democratic supermajority in the Senate. It's a bit of a scary thought, but I'll leave it up to the people to decide.

just remember: "absolute power corrupts absolutely"

[Beet]

Chambliss 54-46.

Martin campaigning with Ludacris shows the weird, turnout-centric dynamics of this race. That asshat should be nowhere near a Democratic campaign.

[agcatter]

Haven't seen any pollson this one in about a week, but the early voting among blacks hasn't been encouraging for Martin.

[Lunar]

I found the Ludacris part pretty hilarious.

Martin is the OPPOSITE of Ludacris and I'm surprised Ludacris follows politics enough to even be aware of this run-off's dynamics.  Maybe Obama gave him a call?

Ok, I have two predictions.  My normal one and my "wtf runoff?" one.

My normal one is Chambliss +6.23%

My wtfrunoff? one is Martin + 0.39%

[Sam Spade]

With early voting over, here are the numbers:

Topline Numbers
491,540 voted - 388,222 voted in person; 103,318 voted by mail (presumably more mail-in ballots will arrive before or on election day)

Demographics
74.37% White
22.59% Black
3.04% Other

Top 5 Counties in Turnout
Cobb: 37,499
Dekalb: 32,891
Fulton: 31,194
Gwinnett: 23,638
Forsyth: 16,704

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08_runoff.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Top 5 Counties in Turnout
Cobb: 37,499
Dekalb: 32,891
Fulton: 31,194
Gwinnett: 23,638
Forsyth: 16,704

On first glance that looks beyond awful for Martin... then again, I don't know what the pattern from the first round was like so...

[Lunar]

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain

Oh, I know how these places vote alright. Just wondering about the number of early voters.

[Lunar]

Yeah I was looking it up myself just for personal reasons and not responding to your post.

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain

Let me break it down for the Senate, that would seem more logical.

Dekalb was +55% for Martin
Fulton was +30% for Martin
Gwinnett was +10% for Chambliss
Cobb was +11% for Chambliss
Forsyth was +55% for Chambliss

[Sam Spade]

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain

Oh, I know how these places vote alright. Just wondering about the number of early voters.

To actually answer your question, instead of ADD stuff...

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Fulton: 179,764
Dekalb: 173,069
Cobb: 149,869
Gwinnett: 117,366
Henry: 70,204

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To actually answer your question, instead of ADD stuff...

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Fulton: 179,764
Dekalb: 173,069
Cobb: 149,869
Gwinnett: 117,366
Henry: 70,204

Beyond the obvious collapse in the overall figures, I note the lack of Forsyth on that list, and it's presence on the runoff one... and Fulton being only third and Cobb being first...

[Sam Spade]

To actually answer your question, instead of ADD stuff...

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Fulton: 179,764
Dekalb: 173,069
Cobb: 149,869
Gwinnett: 117,366
Henry: 70,204

Beyond the obvious collapse in the overall figures, I note the lack of Forsyth on that list, and it's presence on the runoff one... and Fulton being only third and Cobb being first...

Meaning?  Well, I know what it means to me... 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meaning?

This, I think;

awful for Martin

[Tender Branson]

Chambliss wins 54.63-45.37

[Franzl]

Chambliss 56.5-43.5

[agcatter]

I think the fact that Obama stayed out of this indicates the numbers aren't there for Martin.  If Obama thought Martin was a possible winner I believe he would have at least showed up for one day of campaigning.  Martin couldn't win with the maximum turnout of blacks on election day.  With this kind of early black turnout, he is toast.

Of course, Michael Barone is saying it is possible that Obama  really doesn't want 60 votes in the senate because that would force Obama to the left further than he wants to be on many issues.  With all due respect to Barone who I regard very highly, I'm just not buying that one.

[agcatter]

PPP now has it at 53-46.  This one is over folks.  I understand why Obama stayed out of this and it was probably a shrewd political move by him.  No reason to waste political capital on a race Martin can't win and he can't win this one.  Besides, Obama looks more presidential working on filling the slots in his administration and focusing on the economy.  Galloping around Georgia wouldn't seem all that presidential with the economic crisis dominating things.  Better to lose this battle and try and win the war.

[SPQR]

I'm gonna predict Martin because no one else is, and if he wins, everyone will think I'm some sort of genius and if he loses I can just never post in this thread again.

Same here.

[Kevin]

I'm going to predict this as a gut feeling so don't jump all over me

Martin-51%
Chambliss-49%

[MarkWarner08]

White vote (72%): 71% Chambliss
                    29%  Martin

Black vote (25%): 92% Martin
                     8% Chambliss

Other (3%): 68% Martin
                     32% Chambliss

Chambliss: 54%
Martin: 46%

Key factors:

Short-term forces all favored the GOP. Black voters weren't motivated to vote, whereas the pro-Fair Tax crowd wanted to reelect one of its own.

Tom Perdue, Georgia's version of Karl Rove (minus the relentless self-promotion), guided Chambliss to victory by defining Martin (who is essentially a blank slate) as a typical, soft on crim, pro-higher taxes liberal Democrat.

NRSC and the RNC far outspent Martin, who only gained tepid support from Chuck Schumer, who didn't want to leave the DSCC with more debt.

Martin wasn't a dynamic candidate. He failed to energize the base. Ludacris's support just wasn't enough to motivate urban blacks to vote.

Every GOP Senate incumbent who lost this cycle was outspend by his or her opponent and the DSCC. Martin needed a heavy DSCC ad buy, but they didn't play to win here.

[Sam Spade]

I'm gonna predict Martin because no one else is, and if he wins, everyone will think I'm some sort of genius and if he loses I can just never post in this thread again.

Same here.

When one genius comes up with the same long-shot result, does this increase the geniusness aspect of it? 

I'm going to play a little on the edges here and say Chambliss by 11.

[Ronnie]

 I'm going to go out on a limb and say Chambliss 54-46

[Lunar]

Polls close when?