Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[cinyc]

Saxby Chambliss   Republican   3,783    63.8%    
    Jim Martin    Democratic   2,142    36.2%

Candler, Greene, Peach and Polk counties reporting.

[cinyc]

     Saxby Chambliss       Republican       5,996        68.2%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    2,800     31.8%     
     Totals    8,796     

More small counties partially in.

[Lunar]

Probably the smaller precincts within those counties too, no?

[Meeker]

We can start comparing the result of some of these outlying counties to their November results relatively soon, but precincts can be so polarized in this part of the country that I don't like to make judgments on counties without everything in.

[cinyc]

     Saxby Chambliss       Republican       15,744        68.3%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    7,312     31.7%     
     Totals    23,056     

More small counties in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

SSP has a nice table of the results from the general election:

http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4075

[cinyc]

One precinct from a Metro Atlanta exurban county is in (Henry):
Chambliss 5,861     
Martin 2,473 

Edit: If that lead holds, Martin is finished.  Henry was marginal in the November election (Chambliss got 51%, Martin 46%).

[Dan the Roman]

Those Bacon results have got to be wrong. Turnout did not actually fall by 99.9%. 4000 votes to 18?

[Sam Spade]

One precinct from a Metro Atlanta exurban county is in (Henry):
Chambliss 5,861     
Martin 2,473 

Might be early voting numbers.

[Sam Spade]

Those Bacon results have got to be wrong. Turnout did not actually fall by 99.9%. 4000 votes to 18?

Probably misentry.  We'll see.

[Lunar]

Those Bacon results have got to be wrong. Turnout did not actually fall by 99.9%. 4000 votes to 18?

Well it gave Chambliss a 42% margin last time so I'm ok with it!

[cinyc]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

[Ronnie]

GA should be called soon.  I wouldn't be surprised if Chambliss would break 60% in Cobb county.

[Lunar]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

[Sam Spade]

Georgia is not a place you can predict off of two precincts here and there.

[cinyc]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

[Lunar]

Uh, I don't see how you can do your math on incomplete counties.

Martin's margins are going to come in the denser, more African-American precincts.

Only fully reported counties can you analyze while maintaining one's intellectual honesty

[Lunar]

Bacon did have a clerical error.  It's now 3/7 with thousands in

[cinyc]

Example:

Whitfield County is about half in:

November:
Chambliss 64%
Martin 32%

December:
Chambliss 3,380 (70%)
Martin     1,429 (30%)

[ag]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

[cinyc]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

[Dan the Roman]

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

What about Lowndes?

[Sam Spade]

Folks, you have to understand that some of this weird movement occurs as black/white precincts come in, bumping the numbers around.

[Meeker]

Folks, you have to understand that some of this weird movement occurs as black/white precincts come in, bumping the numbers around.

^^^

[Lunar]

Echoing Sam: People stop acting as if the counties are uniformly distributed please

It's the very worst way to analyze this.  Wait for the counties to be completely reported!