Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff
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  Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff
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Poll
Question: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. runoff
#1
Saxby Chambliss, Republican
 
#2
Jim Martin, Democrat
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff  (Read 26728 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #50 on: December 01, 2008, 08:51:19 PM »


If it's Georgia, 7:00 PM EST
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cinyc
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« Reply #51 on: December 02, 2008, 12:56:02 AM »

Chambliss 54.02%
Martin 45.93%
People too stupid to register a vote in a two-way race 0.05%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #52 on: December 02, 2008, 01:40:50 AM »

PPP estimates that today's Election Day voters are more friendly to Martin than the Early Voters.
Chambliss leads 58-41 among the 35% who said they have already voted. But Chambliss leads "only" 51-48 among Dec. 2 voters.

That's a reversal to what we have seen on or before November 4. Early voters used to favor Martin, but Nov. 4 voters broke heavily for Chambliss.

I still think Chambliss will win though.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #53 on: December 02, 2008, 08:37:37 AM »

PPP estimates that today's Election Day voters are more friendly to Martin than the Early Voters.
Chambliss leads 58-41 among the 35% who said they have already voted. But Chambliss leads "only" 51-48 among Dec. 2 voters.

That's a reversal to what we have seen on or before November 4. Early voters used to favor Martin, but Nov. 4 voters broke heavily for Chambliss.

I still think Chambliss will win though.

This is not big news.  In other words, things are returning to normal.  Of course - MOE of those things...
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Bacon King
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« Reply #54 on: December 02, 2008, 10:38:09 AM »

Chambliss with 57.5% but that's just my gut speaking and not really based off anything in particular except what I felt on the ground in Georgia over my thanksgiving break.
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agcatter
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« Reply #55 on: December 02, 2008, 01:21:29 PM »

The final early voting figures showed Martin looking much better than he did.  Number of AAs voting early went up from 22 to 31%.  Not like the general, but enough to give him a chance, whereas late last week I thought he had no chance.
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Franzl
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« Reply #56 on: December 02, 2008, 01:23:10 PM »

The final early voting figures showed Martin looking much better than he did.  Number of AAs voting early went up from 22 to 31%.  Not like the general, but enough to give him a chance, whereas late last week I thought he had no chance.

31%? The Georgia SoS has something else....where did you get that number?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #57 on: December 02, 2008, 01:26:31 PM »

Just goes to show you how little this race means, I had no idea that the runoff was today until I heard it mentioned on CNN a few minutes ago.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #58 on: December 02, 2008, 02:00:56 PM »

Chambliss: 51
Martin: 49
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rbt48
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« Reply #59 on: December 02, 2008, 02:01:53 PM »

Chambliss, 53.8%
Martin, 46.2%
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agcatter
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« Reply #60 on: December 02, 2008, 02:14:33 PM »

My mistake.  The final AA early voting percentage was 21.6.  I don't know what the hell I was looking at.  Doesn't look that good for Martin, but who knows in what it will be in a runoff election.  All about turnout.
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Meeker
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« Reply #61 on: December 02, 2008, 03:58:04 PM »

Turnout is reported to be "low", whatever the hell that means.
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Franzl
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« Reply #62 on: December 02, 2008, 03:59:19 PM »

any exit polling being done today?
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agcatter
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« Reply #63 on: December 02, 2008, 04:06:31 PM »

It wouldn't surprise me if there was some exit polling given it is the only race going.  Probably just some network exit polling by one of the cable networks.  I'd guess CNN.  However, if it that, it would be something that they wouldn't release until the polls close.  That is what CNN does so it wouldn't do us a lot of good.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #64 on: December 02, 2008, 04:07:47 PM »


I wouldn't think so...
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Lunar
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« Reply #65 on: December 02, 2008, 04:20:42 PM »



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/us/politics/03georgia.html

ATLANTA — Georgia voters encountered short lines but heavy campaigning Tuesday on the morning of the state’s runoff election for the Senate between the incumbent Republican, Saxby Chambliss, and Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

Polling stations across Georgia reported low to moderate voter turnout. At the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

With voter turnout critical to both candidates’ success, the Martin and Chambliss campaigns cranked up massive get-out-the-vote efforts. Matt Canter, a spokesman for Mr. Martin, said the campaign had 3,200 people knocking on doors and 3,000 others making phone calls to likely Democratic voters.

Michelle Grasso, a spokeswoman for Mr. Chambliss, said the Republicans were relying largely on e-mail and telephone messages to remind voters of the election. The Chambliss campaign has sent two messages a day to supporters for the past four weeks and will continue to contact voters today, she said.


The election could have a significant impact on the balance of power in the Senate. Mr. Chambliss’s re-election to a second term would prevent Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority.

Many voters interviewed today said the balance of power was an important factor in their choice of a candidate.

“If you can’t have a little back-and-forth arguing between the parties, then the party in power will make mistakes,” said Ron Zukowski, a computer expert in Atlanta who voted for Mr. Chambliss. “This was my chance to say ‘no,’ and I said ‘no.’ ”

But Democratic voters said they saw Mr. Martin’s campaign as an opportunity to support President-elect Barack Obama. “I want the Democrats to not have to deal with a filibuster,” said Charles Bedell, a social worker in Atlanta who supported Mr. Martin. “It’s important to me to have a Democratic senator.”

Republicans across the country are keeping their fingers crossed and their wallets open for Mr. Chambliss, who is favored by most political experts. A victory for Mr. Chambliss would also salve Republicans’ bruised egos after a disastrous election cycle.

“The race is certainly a higher priority for Republicans than Democrats,” said Charles S. Bullock III, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. “They’ve lost so much this year. They’re looking for a bright spot to end this election.”

That is one reason the party brought in Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska on Monday to fly across Georgia in a campaign-financed plane for rallies in four cities. Ms. Palin’s continued popularity in conservative states like this one made her a logical choice to be the closer in the campaign, intended to generate enthusiasm and a high Republican turnout on Tuesday.

“Losing an election doesn’t mean we have lost our way,” Ms. Palin said at a Chambliss rally here, before an exuberant crowd of 2,500. “If we are to lead again, we have lots of hard work ahead of us. Let it begin here tomorrow in Georgia.”

Although both parties have flooded Georgia with national strategists, speakers and volunteers, Republicans have outgunned Democrats in fund-raising and advertising. They have also turned Georgia into a catwalk for their other stars, with visits from Senator John McCain, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York.

The Democratic campaign has drawn from its A-list, too, bringing in former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore and Donna Brazile, the political strategist. Mr. Obama has been notably absent, though he did record automated telephone calls and radio commercials for Mr. Martin.

The race entered a runoff after no candidate won 50 percent of the vote in the general election, with a Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, receiving 3.4 percent. Mr. Chambliss did beat Mr. Martin by three percentage points, but his failure to get a clear majority was a surprising blow to a campaign that had earlier expected to coast to victory.

Mr. Chambliss was hobbled by a groundswell of support for Mr. Obama coupled with Mr. Chambliss’s unpopular vote for the Wall Street bailout. If Al Franken, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Minnesota, wins after a recount, Georgia could provide the crucial 60th seat for Democrats.

Both campaigns have framed the runoff through the prism of Mr. Obama’s victory. Democrats say Mr. Martin will assure the president-elect’s success in Congress, while Republicans cast Mr. Chambliss as the final firewall against unchecked Democratic power.

“It’s important that Georgians send somebody to Washington who can really work with Barack Obama, and that is Jim Martin,” said Mr. Canter, the Marin spokesman.

But Ms. Grasso, speaking for Mr. Chambliss, said Georgians voted against Mr. Obama and oppose one-party control. “In Georgia and across the country, people realize that there needs to be a balance of power,” Ms. Grasso said.

In the first 18 days of the runoff, the Chambliss campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee spent $2 million on television advertisements, according to CMAG, an advertising tracking firm. During the same period, the Martin campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $1.8 million.

But outside donations skyrocketed, especially among Republican-supporting groups, according to the Federal Election Commission. Freedom’s Watch, a conservative lobbying group, has spent $600,000 on television spots for Mr. Chambliss, according to CMAG, and the National Rifle Association has spent more than $30,000.

Even before the advertising blitz, Mr. Chambliss held several advantages. In this reliably conservative state, he received 100,000 votes more than Mr. Martin in the general election, even with record turnout from black Democrats.

“Martin’s certainly the underdog in the runoff, but he’s not the heavy underdog,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “There is clearly a stronger motivation among Republicans to come back and win this one.”

Experts say the winner will be the candidate who best rallies his base. “It’s not about changing anybody’s mind at this point,” said Merle Black, an expert in Southern politics at Emory University. “It’s all about turnout.”

Black voters helped carry Mr. Martin into the runoff, constituting 35 percent of early voters before Election Day. But in the runoff, blacks fell below 23 percent of early voters.

Unless Mr. Martin can greatly increase turnout among blacks and women, wrote Matt Towery, a political analyst, in the Southern Political Report, he is “as cooked as that Thanksgiving turkey now resting in your garbage can.”

In her speech here in Perry, Ms. Palin drew 5,000 people to the Georgia National Fairgrounds. Speaking against a huge American flag, she called for Republicans to prove their vitality by rolling back the Democratic gains, starting with re-electing Mr. Chambliss.

“Georgia,” she said, “the eyes of America are on you.”
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #66 on: December 02, 2008, 04:37:47 PM »

I see that the AA percentage ended up being 21.80% in early voting.  My 11% margin (given that blacks should show up in higher percentages today, but not *that* much) may be an underestimation.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #67 on: December 02, 2008, 06:18:34 PM »

Are we going to have an "official" results thread or just use this one?

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #68 on: December 02, 2008, 06:20:29 PM »

Are we going to have an "official" results thread or just use this one?



I don't see any reason to have a special thread.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_state/GA_Page_1202.html?SITE=AP
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #69 on: December 02, 2008, 07:01:31 PM »

Polls have closed.  No clue when we'll start getting results.
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Meeker
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« Reply #70 on: December 02, 2008, 07:02:23 PM »

No exit poll was done, FTR.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #71 on: December 02, 2008, 07:06:17 PM »

Are the early votes going to be counted tonight, or tomorrow?
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cinyc
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« Reply #72 on: December 02, 2008, 07:06:43 PM »

GA SOS Results (Nothing yet):
Summary
By County
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Lunar
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« Reply #73 on: December 02, 2008, 07:11:29 PM »

Saxby Chambliss   Republican   3,783    63.8%    
    Jim Martin    Democratic   2,142    36.2%
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Meeker
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« Reply #74 on: December 02, 2008, 07:11:50 PM »

All coming in from small outlying counties
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