Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff
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  Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff
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Poll
Question: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. runoff
#1
Saxby Chambliss, Republican
 
#2
Jim Martin, Democrat
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff  (Read 26625 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #150 on: December 02, 2008, 08:28:17 PM »

Well, this is depressing. Hopefully we at least keep it within 20 points.
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Alcon
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« Reply #151 on: December 02, 2008, 08:29:38 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2008, 08:31:52 PM by Alcon »

notice a pattern?

BEN HILL

Chambliss 56.0% (+5.9)
Martin 44.0% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +9.4

BLECKLEY

Chambliss 74.1% (+10.4)
Martin 25.9% (-8.2)

Swing: Chambliss +18.6

JASPER

Chambliss 66.7% (+7.0)
Martin 33.3% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +10.5

TIFT

Chambliss 70.4% (+9.0)
Martin 29.6% (-6.Cool

Swing: Chambliss +15.8

TREUTLEN

Chambliss 62.4% (+8.2)
Martin 37.6% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.2
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cinyc
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« Reply #152 on: December 02, 2008, 08:33:23 PM »

notice a pattern?

BEN HILL

Chambliss 56.0% (+5.9)
Martin 44.0% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +9.4

BLECKLEY

Chambliss 74.1% (+10.4)
Martin 25.9% (-8.2)

Swing: Chambliss +18.6

JASPER

Chambliss 66.7% (+7.0)
Martin 33.3% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +10.5

TIFT

Chambliss 70.4% (+9.0)
Martin 29.6% (-6.Cool

Swing: Chambliss +15.8

TREUTLEN

Chambliss 62.4% (+8.2)
Martin 37.6% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.2

Jasper turnout was about 64% of November.
Tift turnout was about 60% of November.
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Alcon
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« Reply #153 on: December 02, 2008, 08:33:34 PM »

WARREN

Martin 50.6% (-7.Cool
Chambliss 49.4% (+10.4)

Swing: Chambliss +18.2

Black rural turnout just isn't going to be that different from black urban turnout.  This is over.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #154 on: December 02, 2008, 08:35:16 PM »

When are networks going to call this race?  They should have called it when polls closed.
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SPC
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« Reply #155 on: December 02, 2008, 08:35:49 PM »

My prediction based on Ben Hill County Results:
Chambliss 56%
Martin 44%
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cinyc
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« Reply #156 on: December 02, 2008, 08:36:26 PM »

WARREN

Martin 50.6% (-7.Cool
Chambliss 49.4% (+10.4)

Swing: Chambliss +18.2

Black rural turnout just isn't going to be that different from black urban turnout.  This is over.

If you straight line the current Dekalb results, urban turnout may be higher that rural.   But I doubt you can straight line any county's results - if you do, turnout would be higher than November.
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cinyc
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« Reply #157 on: December 02, 2008, 08:39:14 PM »

A large chunk of Cobb came in (78.5%).   Thus far, Chambliss is running 10 points better than November.   Martin is down 6 from November.
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Lunar
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« Reply #158 on: December 02, 2008, 08:42:11 PM »

Chambliss is almost certain to win, but "swing" is not everything.  Chambliss could outperform his numbers in every country, but if Martin's counties hypothetically deliver a higher percentage of the votes, Martin could close somewhat

We need to pay attention to turnout as well as swing!  That's all.
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« Reply #159 on: December 02, 2008, 08:43:30 PM »

Apparently all those hood rats (luda, etc) that showed up at the Martin rally didn't help him much.
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cinyc
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« Reply #160 on: December 02, 2008, 08:45:01 PM »

Chambliss is almost certain to win, but "swing" is not everything.  Chambliss could outperform his numbers in every country, but if Martin's counties hypothetically deliver a higher percentage of the votes, Martin could close somewhat

We need to pay attention to turnout as well as swing!  That's all.

That's impossible to do without full county results.  In the four small complete counties I've checked so far, turnout is 45-64% of November.
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Lunar
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« Reply #161 on: December 02, 2008, 08:45:29 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.


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cinyc
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« Reply #162 on: December 02, 2008, 08:46:47 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.
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Lunar
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« Reply #163 on: December 02, 2008, 08:47:50 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?
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Meeker
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« Reply #164 on: December 02, 2008, 08:48:02 PM »

Martin would need something like 65% of the remaining vote in order to win.

All about the historical margin at this point...
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Bacon King
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« Reply #165 on: December 02, 2008, 08:49:43 PM »

Note that the Fulton results currently in are most likely to be from the north of the county and thus entirely unrepresentative of turnout and margin for the county as a whole. It's not like Atlanta's suddenly gonna be marginal here.
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Lunar
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« Reply #166 on: December 02, 2008, 08:50:04 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I mean, if a miracle were to occur for Martin, it'd probably occur in the area that 90% of his turnout machine was focusing on, no?
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cinyc
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« Reply #167 on: December 02, 2008, 08:50:15 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2008, 08:52:32 PM by cinyc »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinnett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #168 on: December 02, 2008, 08:51:33 PM »

Chambliss 56%
Martin 44%

Thats my final prediction. Fulton is the largest county with the most precincts out and that may push Chambliss below this to 55% or 54%. But I feel confident in the above numbers. I really thought the Dems would turn out there vote better.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #169 on: December 02, 2008, 08:53:15 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #170 on: December 02, 2008, 08:53:58 PM »

Turning out how I expected. Oh well.
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Lunar
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« Reply #171 on: December 02, 2008, 08:54:49 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.

Think I would have time to go to the gym for 30 minutes without anything exciting happening?


/nerd question
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Bacon King
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« Reply #172 on: December 02, 2008, 08:56:15 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.

Think I would have time to go to the gym for 30 minutes without anything exciting happening?


/nerd question

Not a nerd question. Nerds don't go to gyms Tongue

But yeah, go for it. Maybe make it a quick one, but good parts of Atlanta should still be out then.
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cinyc
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« Reply #173 on: December 02, 2008, 08:56:33 PM »

Dekalb (45% in):
Martin 69,743  (69% (-7 from November)
Chambliss 31,185  (31% (+10 from November)
   
Pretty much the same trend versus November as statewide.

If Dekalb trends continue, turnout will be 75% of November.  I doubt they will - I think early votes reported first, and that percentage fell from the last time I eyeballed it.  Even so, it's not good for Martin.
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Lunar
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« Reply #174 on: December 02, 2008, 08:57:34 PM »

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.




Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?


I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.

Think I would have time to go to the gym for 30 minutes without anything exciting happening?


/nerd question

Not a nerd question. Nerds don't go to gyms Tongue

But yeah, go for it. Maybe make it a quick one, but good parts of Atlanta will still be out then.

the fact that Fulton County, Georgia's return results could make me not go to the gym is pretty nerdy.
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