Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[Alcon]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

[Alcon]

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

Quitman is only 3/4 according to the SoS it looks like, but whatever.

And Echols has only 400 votes in and gave a 40% margin for Chambliss last time, a 50% drop in turnout too from November too.

If Martin wins, it's not because he racked up a high total in these crap small counties people !

It's possible that Martin's turnout machine is crappy in rural black areas and super-fantastic-awesome in the urban areas -- but otherwise a result like Quitman is extremely conspicuous.

Although they did just knock it down to 3/4 reporting .

[Alcon]

Berrien County - 10/11 reporting

74-26 Chambliss this time

64-32 last time

I'm really seeing no numbers that indicate competitiveness.

[Alcon]

Bacon County - 7/7 reporting

79.7-20.3 Chambliss

Last time 69.8-28.1

Turnout in the black rural areas doesn't seem to be especially good.  Urban Atlanta is going to have to make up for a HELL of a lot here, Lunar.

[Alcon]

Quitman County - 4/4 reporting

Martin 51.5% (-5.6)
Chambliss 48.5% (+8.1)

[Alcon]

TALIAFERRO

Martin 64.9% (+0.1)
Chambliss 35.1% (+1.7)

Swing: Chambliss +1.6

Maybe black turnout wasn't as bad as Quitman indicated

[Alcon]

PIKE

Chambliss 80.0% (+7.6)
Martin 20.0% (-3.7)

Swing: Chambliss +11.2

WILKES

Chambliss 57.3% (+8.0)
Martin 42.7% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.0

I'm more certain than two hours ago, but we'll see!

[Alcon]

PULASKI

Chambliss 63.4% (+7.7)
Martin 36.6% (-5.5)

Swing: Chambliss +13.2

[Alcon]

CRISP

Chambliss 82.3% (+25.2)
Martin 17.7% (-23.1)

Swing: Chambliss +48.3

I'm calling probable typo there

[Alcon]

notice a pattern?

BEN HILL

Chambliss 56.0% (+5.9)
Martin 44.0% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +9.4

BLECKLEY

Chambliss 74.1% (+10.4)
Martin 25.9% (-8.2)

Swing: Chambliss +18.6

JASPER

Chambliss 66.7% (+7.0)
Martin 33.3% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +10.5

TIFT

Chambliss 70.4% (+9.0)
Martin 29.6% (-6.

Swing: Chambliss +15.8

TREUTLEN

Chambliss 62.4% (+8.2)
Martin 37.6% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.2

[Alcon]

WARREN

Martin 50.6% (-7.
Chambliss 49.4% (+10.4)

Swing: Chambliss +18.2

Black rural turnout just isn't going to be that different from black urban turnout.  This is over.

[Alcon]

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.

Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?

I don't know if I can recall an election where rural black turnout has been down and urban black turnout has been way up, or vice-versa.  Unless there's a galvanizing rural/urban issue why would it be?

[Alcon]

AP 4 Chambliss

The Associated Alcon pretty much called this a half an hour in, but whatevs.