Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 01:59:16 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. runoff
#1
Saxby Chambliss, Republican
 
#2
Jim Martin, Democrat
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 89

Author Topic: Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff  (Read 26771 times)
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« on: November 30, 2008, 07:28:47 PM »

I think it's insanely obvious that Martin is going to win to anyone who's not a hack
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2008, 08:47:09 PM »

I'm gonna predict Martin because no one else is, and if he wins, everyone will think I'm some sort of genius and if he loses I can just never post in this thread again.

My strategy is just to be sarcastic so I can claim either way.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2008, 11:24:55 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2008, 11:27:34 PM by Lunar Jr. »

Chambliss by 4 to 6. Does anyone in the area know who has the better ground game for the election?

Same number of offices, 538's new article documents a comparison a bit.  Martin appears to have far better staffed offices and is focusing on door-to-door rather than phonebanking (which is what Saxby is doing).  Saxby has had bigger and better rallies and better cash on hand, which will aid him as well. And, of course, the Obama elements of Jim's campaign are far more talented.
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2008, 11:19:39 AM »
« Edited: December 01, 2008, 11:25:07 AM by Lunar Jr. »

I found the Ludacris part pretty hilarious.

Martin is the OPPOSITE of Ludacris and I'm surprised Ludacris follows politics enough to even be aware of this run-off's dynamics.  Maybe Obama gave him a call?

Ok, I have two predictions.  My normal one and my "wtf runoff?" one.

My normal one is Chambliss +6.23%

My wtfrunoff? one is Martin + 0.39%




Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2008, 11:48:53 AM »

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2008, 11:50:52 AM »
« Edited: December 01, 2008, 11:56:23 AM by Lunar Jr. »

Yeah I was looking it up myself just for personal reasons and not responding to your post.

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain


Let me break it down for the Senate, that would seem more logical.

Dekalb was +55% for Martin
Fulton was +30% for Martin
Gwinnett was +10% for Chambliss
Cobb was +11% for Chambliss
Forsyth was +55% for Chambliss
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2008, 08:47:49 PM »

Polls close when?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #7 on: December 02, 2008, 04:20:42 PM »



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/03/us/politics/03georgia.html

ATLANTA — Georgia voters encountered short lines but heavy campaigning Tuesday on the morning of the state’s runoff election for the Senate between the incumbent Republican, Saxby Chambliss, and Democratic challenger Jim Martin.

Polling stations across Georgia reported low to moderate voter turnout. At the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

With voter turnout critical to both candidates’ success, the Martin and Chambliss campaigns cranked up massive get-out-the-vote efforts. Matt Canter, a spokesman for Mr. Martin, said the campaign had 3,200 people knocking on doors and 3,000 others making phone calls to likely Democratic voters.

Michelle Grasso, a spokeswoman for Mr. Chambliss, said the Republicans were relying largely on e-mail and telephone messages to remind voters of the election. The Chambliss campaign has sent two messages a day to supporters for the past four weeks and will continue to contact voters today, she said.


The election could have a significant impact on the balance of power in the Senate. Mr. Chambliss’s re-election to a second term would prevent Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority.

Many voters interviewed today said the balance of power was an important factor in their choice of a candidate.

“If you can’t have a little back-and-forth arguing between the parties, then the party in power will make mistakes,” said Ron Zukowski, a computer expert in Atlanta who voted for Mr. Chambliss. “This was my chance to say ‘no,’ and I said ‘no.’ ”

But Democratic voters said they saw Mr. Martin’s campaign as an opportunity to support President-elect Barack Obama. “I want the Democrats to not have to deal with a filibuster,” said Charles Bedell, a social worker in Atlanta who supported Mr. Martin. “It’s important to me to have a Democratic senator.”

Republicans across the country are keeping their fingers crossed and their wallets open for Mr. Chambliss, who is favored by most political experts. A victory for Mr. Chambliss would also salve Republicans’ bruised egos after a disastrous election cycle.

“The race is certainly a higher priority for Republicans than Democrats,” said Charles S. Bullock III, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. “They’ve lost so much this year. They’re looking for a bright spot to end this election.”

That is one reason the party brought in Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska on Monday to fly across Georgia in a campaign-financed plane for rallies in four cities. Ms. Palin’s continued popularity in conservative states like this one made her a logical choice to be the closer in the campaign, intended to generate enthusiasm and a high Republican turnout on Tuesday.

“Losing an election doesn’t mean we have lost our way,” Ms. Palin said at a Chambliss rally here, before an exuberant crowd of 2,500. “If we are to lead again, we have lots of hard work ahead of us. Let it begin here tomorrow in Georgia.”

Although both parties have flooded Georgia with national strategists, speakers and volunteers, Republicans have outgunned Democrats in fund-raising and advertising. They have also turned Georgia into a catwalk for their other stars, with visits from Senator John McCain, former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York.

The Democratic campaign has drawn from its A-list, too, bringing in former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore and Donna Brazile, the political strategist. Mr. Obama has been notably absent, though he did record automated telephone calls and radio commercials for Mr. Martin.

The race entered a runoff after no candidate won 50 percent of the vote in the general election, with a Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, receiving 3.4 percent. Mr. Chambliss did beat Mr. Martin by three percentage points, but his failure to get a clear majority was a surprising blow to a campaign that had earlier expected to coast to victory.

Mr. Chambliss was hobbled by a groundswell of support for Mr. Obama coupled with Mr. Chambliss’s unpopular vote for the Wall Street bailout. If Al Franken, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Minnesota, wins after a recount, Georgia could provide the crucial 60th seat for Democrats.

Both campaigns have framed the runoff through the prism of Mr. Obama’s victory. Democrats say Mr. Martin will assure the president-elect’s success in Congress, while Republicans cast Mr. Chambliss as the final firewall against unchecked Democratic power.

“It’s important that Georgians send somebody to Washington who can really work with Barack Obama, and that is Jim Martin,” said Mr. Canter, the Marin spokesman.

But Ms. Grasso, speaking for Mr. Chambliss, said Georgians voted against Mr. Obama and oppose one-party control. “In Georgia and across the country, people realize that there needs to be a balance of power,” Ms. Grasso said.

In the first 18 days of the runoff, the Chambliss campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee spent $2 million on television advertisements, according to CMAG, an advertising tracking firm. During the same period, the Martin campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $1.8 million.

But outside donations skyrocketed, especially among Republican-supporting groups, according to the Federal Election Commission. Freedom’s Watch, a conservative lobbying group, has spent $600,000 on television spots for Mr. Chambliss, according to CMAG, and the National Rifle Association has spent more than $30,000.

Even before the advertising blitz, Mr. Chambliss held several advantages. In this reliably conservative state, he received 100,000 votes more than Mr. Martin in the general election, even with record turnout from black Democrats.

“Martin’s certainly the underdog in the runoff, but he’s not the heavy underdog,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “There is clearly a stronger motivation among Republicans to come back and win this one.”

Experts say the winner will be the candidate who best rallies his base. “It’s not about changing anybody’s mind at this point,” said Merle Black, an expert in Southern politics at Emory University. “It’s all about turnout.”

Black voters helped carry Mr. Martin into the runoff, constituting 35 percent of early voters before Election Day. But in the runoff, blacks fell below 23 percent of early voters.

Unless Mr. Martin can greatly increase turnout among blacks and women, wrote Matt Towery, a political analyst, in the Southern Political Report, he is “as cooked as that Thanksgiving turkey now resting in your garbage can.”

In her speech here in Perry, Ms. Palin drew 5,000 people to the Georgia National Fairgrounds. Speaking against a huge American flag, she called for Republicans to prove their vitality by rolling back the Democratic gains, starting with re-electing Mr. Chambliss.

“Georgia,” she said, “the eyes of America are on you.”
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2008, 07:11:29 PM »

Saxby Chambliss   Republican   3,783    63.8%    
    Jim Martin    Democratic   2,142    36.2%
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2008, 07:16:46 PM »

Probably the smaller precincts within those counties too, no?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #10 on: December 02, 2008, 07:26:04 PM »

Those Bacon results have got to be wrong. Turnout did not actually fall by 99.9%. 4000 votes to 18?

Well it gave Chambliss a 42% margin last time so I'm ok with it!
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #11 on: December 02, 2008, 07:33:23 PM »

2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2008, 07:37:00 PM »

Uh, I don't see how you can do your math on incomplete counties.

Martin's margins are going to come in the denser, more African-American precincts.

Only fully reported counties can you analyze while maintaining one's intellectual honesty
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2008, 07:37:36 PM »

Bacon did have a clerical error.  It's now 3/7 with thousands in
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2008, 07:48:05 PM »

Echoing Sam: People stop acting as if the counties are uniformly distributed please Smiley

It's the very worst way to analyze this.  Wait for the counties to be completely reported!
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2008, 07:55:31 PM »

Two diverse counties (Echols and Quitman) are in and they do not look good for Martin.

Nor does any other county I'm looking at.

Quitman is only 3/4 according to the SoS it looks like, but whatever.

And Echols has only 400 votes in and gave a 40% margin for Chambliss last time, a 50% drop in turnout too from November too.

If Martin wins, it's not because he racked up a high total in these crap small counties people Smiley!
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2008, 08:03:08 PM »

Berrien County - 10/11 reporting

74-26 Chambliss this time

64-32 last time

I'm really seeing no numbers that indicate competitiveness.

His margins aren't as important as relative vote gain.  I think Chambliss will win, but it's all about whoever stops the turnout bleeding the most.


Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #17 on: December 02, 2008, 08:06:13 PM »

Bacon County - 7/7 reporting

79.7-20.3 Chambliss

Last time 69.8-28.1

Turnout in the black rural areas doesn't seem to be especially good.  Urban Atlanta is going to have to make up for a HELL of a lot here, Lunar.

Natch
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #18 on: December 02, 2008, 08:07:26 PM »

Doing 30% better in Taliaferro or so for the M
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #19 on: December 02, 2008, 08:12:36 PM »

I think he'll win too, but I am no more certain now than I was two hours ago.

Patience

We need to see the urban areas report first people!
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #20 on: December 02, 2008, 08:15:03 PM »

PIKE

Chambliss 80.0% (+7.6)
Martin 20.0% (-3.7)

Swing: Chambliss +11.2

WILKES

Chambliss 57.3% (+8.0)
Martin 42.7% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.0

I'm more certain than two hours ago, but we'll see!

Yeah those two are the first real pieces of bad news
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #21 on: December 02, 2008, 08:16:46 PM »

I want to make sure there's no unknown incredible turnout in metro Atlanta that I missed, b/c otherwise this one's quite over and it will not be close.  Northern Georgia is a real massacre - you'd think Martin's name starts with an O.

Reports are that Northern Virginia had quite high turnout.  Some poll workers said it only dropped from 11% turnout to 10% turnout Roll Eyes
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #22 on: December 02, 2008, 08:19:10 PM »

I wonder if Martin will have similar swings in his favor in Dekalb, Richmond, Clayton, Fulton etc.

Hmmm

Turnout in these rural areas is how much lower, on average?  50%ish?
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #23 on: December 02, 2008, 08:25:01 PM »

Dekalb starting to deliver some votes
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2008, 08:42:11 PM »

Chambliss is almost certain to win, but "swing" is not everything.  Chambliss could outperform his numbers in every country, but if Martin's counties hypothetically deliver a higher percentage of the votes, Martin could close somewhat

We need to pay attention to turnout as well as swing!  That's all.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 14 queries.