Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[Bacon King]

Chambliss with 57.5% but that's just my gut speaking and not really based off anything in particular except what I felt on the ground in Georgia over my thanksgiving break.

[Bacon King]

Note that the Fulton results currently in are most likely to be from the north of the county and thus entirely unrepresentative of turnout and margin for the county as a whole. It's not like Atlanta's suddenly gonna be marginal here.

[Bacon King]

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.

Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?

I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.

[Bacon King]

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.

Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?

I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

Minority areas 'round these parts are often the last to report results, so it's possible there's something in the black communities of Cobb and Gwinnett that we're not seeing yet And see what I said about Fulton. I'm not arguing that Martin will win or anything, but it's still too early to call this race.

Think I would have time to go to the gym for 30 minutes without anything exciting happening?


/nerd question

Not a nerd question. Nerds don't go to gyms

But yeah, go for it. Maybe make it a quick one, but good parts of Atlanta should still be out then.

[Bacon King]

Chambliss with 57.5%

BAM!