Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

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Chambliss 54.02%
Martin 45.93%
People too stupid to register a vote in a two-way race 0.05%

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GA SOS Results (Nothing yet):
Summary
By County

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Saxby Chambliss   Republican   3,783    63.8%    
    Jim Martin    Democratic   2,142    36.2%

Candler, Greene, Peach and Polk counties reporting.

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     Saxby Chambliss       Republican       5,996        68.2%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    2,800     31.8%     
     Totals    8,796     

More small counties partially in.

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     Saxby Chambliss       Republican       15,744        68.3%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    7,312     31.7%     
     Totals    23,056     

More small counties in.

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One precinct from a Metro Atlanta exurban county is in (Henry):
Chambliss 5,861     
Martin 2,473 

Edit: If that lead holds, Martin is finished.  Henry was marginal in the November election (Chambliss got 51%, Martin 46%).

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2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

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2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

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Example:

Whitfield County is about half in:

November:
Chambliss 64%
Martin 32%

December:
Chambliss 3,380 (70%)
Martin     1,429 (30%)

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2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

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2 precincts in in Gwinnett (NE Atlanta Suburbs):
Chambliss 569     
Martin 236     

Gwinnett went 53-43 Chambliss in November.

I want to see something from Fulton and/or Dekalb, but the fat lady is getting warmed up.

Edit:
2% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       31,211        69.1%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    13,945     30.9%     
     Totals    45,156     

Wait, you're using two precincts in a county with 161 yet to report, in a geographically segregated Southern state, to analyze something?  Rly?

It's not just 2 precincts.  It's the general trend in the results, which seems to show a Chambliss improvement everywhere I've done the math so far.  Chambliss doesn't need to improve the November results by much to win.

If you are to take this seriously, you'd note that half the counties that now show Martin leading had Chambliss winning them in November, sometimes w/ huge leads. Of course, this is all just w/ a few hundreds of votes now.

Chambliss will, probably, win. But he isn't getting close to 60%.

There are only two of those - Jasper and Montgomery counties.  And both are barely going to Martin.

What about Lowndes?

What about Lowndes?  Chambliss is ahead last I checked.

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Echoing Sam: People stop acting as if the counties are uniformly distributed please

It's the very worst way to analyze this.  Wait for the counties to be completely reported!

Fine.  Echols County is supposedly all in:

December:
Chambliss 355  (77%)
Martin 105  (23%)
Total 460

November:
Chambliss 731  69%     
Martin 296     28%
Total 1027

Chambliss won by 8 points more than in November.  Turnout is way down - 45% of November levels.

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Gwinnett is about 40% in:
Chambliss 32,034 (64% (+11 from November))
Martin      18,012  (36% (-7 from November))    

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My god Karen Handel sucks as Secretary of State. These county results are useless, because chances are even if all precincts are in the results are still wrong. This is just embarrassing.

The Georgia SoS's site is better than, say, New York's, which shows absolutely no results whatsoever.  Partial data is better than no data.

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Quitman County - 4/4 reporting

Martin 51.5% (-5.6)
Chambliss 48.5% (+8.1)

Quitman county turnout was half of what it was in November.

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Spanking. Absolute spanking.

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

Gwinnett is about 40% in.  Some precincts from Cherokee, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Jasper are reporting.  There's nothing from Fulton, Dekalb or Cobb.

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Spanking. Absolute spanking.

You're aware that none of Metro Atlanta has come in yet?

Gwinnett is about 40% in.  Some precincts from Cherokee, Paulding, Henry, Newton and Jasper are reporting.  There's nothing from Fulton, Dekalb or Cobb.

I meant "urban".

There's nothing from Fulton or Dekalb, then.  But Cobb will partially offset those counties, anyway.

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28% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       326,516        64.8%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    176,979     35.2%     
     Totals    503,495     

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I wonder if Martin will have similar swings in his favor in Dekalb, Richmond, Clayton, Fulton etc.

Hmmm

Turnout in these rural areas is how much lower, on average?  50%ish?

Turnout was 45-50% of the November turnout in the two completed counties I checked.

Edit:  It's probably slightly lower, since I didn't take into account November third party voters.

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13% of Dekalb in:
Martin  35,748  (69% (-7 from November full county))
Chambliss 15,826  (31% (+10 from November full county))

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notice a pattern?

BEN HILL

Chambliss 56.0% (+5.9)
Martin 44.0% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +9.4

BLECKLEY

Chambliss 74.1% (+10.4)
Martin 25.9% (-8.2)

Swing: Chambliss +18.6

JASPER

Chambliss 66.7% (+7.0)
Martin 33.3% (-3.5)

Swing: Chambliss +10.5

TIFT

Chambliss 70.4% (+9.0)
Martin 29.6% (-6.

Swing: Chambliss +15.8

TREUTLEN

Chambliss 62.4% (+8.2)
Martin 37.6% (-6.0)

Swing: Chambliss +14.2

Jasper turnout was about 64% of November.
Tift turnout was about 60% of November.

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WARREN

Martin 50.6% (-7.
Chambliss 49.4% (+10.4)

Swing: Chambliss +18.2

Black rural turnout just isn't going to be that different from black urban turnout.  This is over.

If you straight line the current Dekalb results, urban turnout may be higher that rural.   But I doubt you can straight line any county's results - if you do, turnout would be higher than November.

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A large chunk of Cobb came in (78.5%).   Thus far, Chambliss is running 10 points better than November.   Martin is down 6 from November.

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Chambliss is almost certain to win, but "swing" is not everything.  Chambliss could outperform his numbers in every country, but if Martin's counties hypothetically deliver a higher percentage of the votes, Martin could close somewhat

We need to pay attention to turnout as well as swing!  That's all.

That's impossible to do without full county results.  In the four small complete counties I've checked so far, turnout is 45-64% of November.

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Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.

Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.