Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Top 5 Counties in Turnout
Cobb: 37,499
Dekalb: 32,891
Fulton: 31,194
Gwinnett: 23,638
Forsyth: 16,704

On first glance that looks beyond awful for Martin... then again, I don't know what the pattern from the first round was like so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dekalb was +59% for Obama
Fulton was +35% for Obama
Gwinnett was +10% for McCain
Cobb was +9% for McCain
Forsyth was +58% for McCain

Oh, I know how these places vote alright. Just wondering about the number of early voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To actually answer your question, instead of ADD stuff...

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/Earlyvotingstats08.htm

Fulton: 179,764
Dekalb: 173,069
Cobb: 149,869
Gwinnett: 117,366
Henry: 70,204

Beyond the obvious collapse in the overall figures, I note the lack of Forsyth on that list, and it's presence on the runoff one... and Fulton being only third and Cobb being first...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meaning?

This, I think;

awful for Martin

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turning out how I expected. Oh well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did anyone actually believe Martin would win after failing to do so on election day besides Lief?

I thought Obama's previously amazing turnout machine had an inside gut draw (1-8 is what I said, but I should have given it worse odds) at being transferable to a non-Obama candidate. 

Look, the reason for the (relatively) huge black&etc turnout in November wasn't an "amazing machine*", but identity politics; the driving force behind American voting patterns for over two hundred years now. People involved in campaigns and that side of politics generally are often apt to exaggerate own importance of such things.
There was no reason to expect Martin to even come close, certainly not after the final figures on early voting came out. There's really only one surprising feature to last night's result; Martin's all-too-obvious collapse with rural white voters.

In any case, powerful machines are always locally based, take years to build and can get rusty very quickly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was thinking of his primary wins, not November.

Identity politics was even more a factor in those than in November...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a small group of counties in the far north of Georgia that I've kept half an eye on for a few years now (Rabun, Towns and Union. Would be Fannin as well, but it's political traditions are (at least in terms of their magnitude) unique). For those interested, this is the land of Deliverance and Zell Miller.

Presidential:

Rabun: McCain 5,487 (72.2%), Obama 2,001 (26.3%)
Towns: McCain 4,292 (74.8%), Obama 1,391 (24.2%)
Union: McCain 8,013 (75.3%), Obama 2,486 (23.4%)

First round, Senate:

Rabun: Chambliss 4,418 (60.5%), Martin 2,530 (34.7%)
Towns: Chambliss 3,559 (64.8%), Martin 1,689 (30.7%)
Union: Chambliss 6,483 (63.4%), Martin 3,292 (32.2%)

Second round, Senate:

Rabun: Chambliss 3,057 (72.4%), Martin 1,164 (27.6), one precinct (out of 11) not in yet.
Towns: Chambliss 2,560 (73.6%), Martin 918 (26.4), one precinct (out of 6) not in yet.
Union: Chambliss 4,624 (74.9%), Martin 1,547 (25.1%), one precinct (out of 13) not in yet.

In percentage terms, Martin seems to have run a little ahead of Obama but a little behind Majette (!). In 2002, Cleland broke 40% in both Rabun and Towns.