European Elections 2009 (France)

[Antonio the Sixth]

First : in 1999 PS was not opposition, but majority.
Then : in 2004, you couldn't  consider UDF as an opposition party, so it gives about the same.

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You said :

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I just wanted to correct this affirmation, who takes no acount of the french political system.

Do notice that I said official opposition, and not opposition as a whole.

First : in 1999 PS was not opposition, but majority.
Then : in 2004, you couldn't  consider UDF as an opposition party, so it gives about the same.

In 1999, the parties of the parliamentary opposition (RPR, UDF, RPF) totaled over 35% of the votes, not counting the FN, which is always in opposition anyways.

[PGSable]

Benoît Hamon said that Harlem Désir will likely lead the PS list in Ile-de-France (link). Désir led it in 2004, but Hamon challenged him following the PS elections last fall.

[big bad fab]

Benoît Hamon said that Harlem Désir will likely lead the PS list in Ile-de-France (link). Désir led it in 2004, but Hamon challenged him following the PS elections last fall.

The big problem inside the PS now is: "where do we put Vincent Peillon ?"

Peillon is an incumbent MEP from Nord-Ouest constituency (i.e. Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Haut-Normandie, Basse-Normandie and his own Picardie), but there is also the old Fabiusian (and former far-leftist) Henri Weber, also an incumbent MEP and Gilles Pargneaux, head of the big PS federation of Nord (le département).

Peillon is nr 2 in the Royalist wing (but many think he wants to be nr 1 of a Peillonist wing...) and to drop him in the South-East would disturb mnay Royalist politicians already candidates there.

Inside the UMP, Sarkozy decides alone and you have some irrational choices: Barnier in Ile-de-France rather than in the South East; Lamassoure and Bourlanges, good incumbent MEPs, without any aussrance of reelection; Baudis nr 1 in South-West, based just on one single poll where he's better known by 3 points compared to Lamassoure...

Considering European elections in France are traditionally those of anger, laziness, electoral gleaning here and there, 26% for the UMP would be quite a small victory....
I'm myself not sure at all of my vote for the UMP (I regret NC autonomous lists: they would have made 1,5%, but it would have been easy to vote for European ideas, in the center-right).

Many moderate UMP electors will vote for MoDem, believing they are voting for the old UDF, whereas the MoDem is now a bunch of Bayrou's sect members, of former Greens and various outsiders. Even Quitterie Delmas, a young MoDem regional leader-in-waiting in Paris, has recently put an end to her policital career because of authoritarian and "old" manners inside the MoDem from Bayrou and, especially, Marielle de Sarnez.
And many UMP electors from the right will not vote, because of messy, unfinished, less and less courageous reforms.

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

[Hash]

Benoît Hamon said that Harlem Désir will likely lead the PS list in Ile-de-France (link). Désir led it in 2004, but Hamon challenged him following the PS elections last fall.

The big problem inside the PS now is: "where do we put Vincent Peillon ?"

Peillon is an incumbent MEP from Nord-Ouest constituency (i.e. Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Haut-Normandie, Basse-Normandie and his own Picardie), but there is also the old Fabiusian (and former far-leftist) Henri Weber, also an incumbent MEP and Gilles Pargneaux, head of the big PS federation of Nord (le département).

Peillon is nr 2 in the Royalist wing (but many think he wants to be nr 1 of a Peillonist wing...) and to drop him in the South-East would disturb mnay Royalist politicians already candidates there.

The PS has the double-problem of factional wars and a lot of incumbent MEPs to put on their lists.

Inside the UMP, Sarkozy decides alone and you have some irrational choices: Barnier in Ile-de-France rather than in the South East; Lamassoure and Bourlanges, good incumbent MEPs, without any aussrance of reelection; Baudis nr 1 in South-West, based just on one single poll where he's better known by 3 points compared to Lamassoure...

Considering European elections in France are traditionally those of anger, laziness, electoral gleaning here and there, 26% for the UMP would be quite a small victory....
I'm myself not sure at all of my vote for the UMP (I regret NC autonomous lists: they would have made 1,5%, but it would have been easy to vote for European ideas, in the center-right).

The UMP loves irrational choices or downright awful choices.

I hope you don't Libertas or FN

Many moderate UMP electors will vote for MoDem, believing they are voting for the old UDF, whereas the MoDem is now a bunch of Bayrou's sect members, of former Greens and various outsiders. Even Quitterie Delmas, a young MoDem regional leader-in-waiting in Paris, has recently put an end to her policital career because of authoritarian and "old" manners inside the MoDem from Bayrou and, especially, Marielle de Sarnez.
And many UMP electors from the right will not vote, because of messy, unfinished, less and less courageous reforms.

They think they're voting a European program, when in fact they're voting for nothing except an egomaniac power-hungry sect.

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

It will be interesting to see how de Villiers ends up. He's right on the 5% boundary nationally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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I agree.

[big bad fab]

Inside the UMP, Sarkozy decides alone and you have some irrational choices: Barnier in Ile-de-France rather than in the South East; Lamassoure and Bourlanges, good incumbent MEPs, without any aussrance of reelection; Baudis nr 1 in South-West, based just on one single poll where he's better known by 3 points compared to Lamassoure...

Considering European elections in France are traditionally those of anger, laziness, electoral gleaning here and there, 26% for the UMP would be quite a small victory....
I'm myself not sure at all of my vote for the UMP (I regret NC autonomous lists: they would have made 1,5%, but it would have been easy to vote for European ideas, in the center-right).

The UMP loves irrational choices or downright awful choices.

I hope you don't Libertas or FN

Don't worry: I'm not a stupid racist, I'm not a French Algeria nostalgic and I don't want to help an egomaniac oldie put his unbearable and silly daughter at the head of his falling "political shop"....

As for Libertas, I'm definitely pro-European, despite the European Parliament, despite the lack of "spiritual and religious roots".
Villiers is ridiculous and egomaniac (a bit less than Bayrou, Royal, Sarkozy and Le Pen, but really a tiny bit less...) and makes the Catholic right appear ridiculous... That's a pity.

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

It will be interesting to see how de Villiers ends up. He's right on the 5% boundary nationally.

If he's above the 5% threshold, it will be only thanks to CPNT. Villiers is definitely out of fashion, even in the right. DLR and Dupont-Aignan may be a surprise if they find a way to be aired on the main networks.

But don't think I support DLR: back in 1990, Dupont-Aignan was one of my law teachers in Sciences-Po. He never smiled, except when he was criticizing something or someone. He was "less than average" and some students were better than him in public law....!!

[Hash]

Most probably, this election will be an election for nothing, because the success of the NPA is anticipated, the PS will be said not to have lost considering its recent internal fightings, the UMP will be ahead, the possible good score of the Greens is anticipated, the MoDem is unable to duplicate his (likely) good European results on the national political scene.
The only losers will be the FN and the PCF.

It will be interesting to see how de Villiers ends up. He's right on the 5% boundary nationally.

If he's above the 5% threshold, it will be only thanks to CPNT. Villiers is definitely out of fashion, even in the right. DLR and Dupont-Aignan may be a surprise if they find a way to be aired on the main networks.

But don't think I support DLR: back in 1990, Dupont-Aignan was one of my law teachers in Sciences-Po. He never smiled, except when he was criticizing something or someone. He was "less than average" and some students were better than him in public law....!!

Cool. It must be interesting to have a quite well-known politician as one of your former profs. Your analysis of him as a prof doesn't surprise me one bit. He's always look liked an arrogant prick to me.

Anyways, +1. +1 party. Carl Lang, the FN MEP ("We Hate Marine" faction) has launched his own party: the Party of France (Parti de la France, PF?). Martine Lehideux, Martial Bild, Bernard Antony (leader of the national-Catholic faction in the FN), Fernand Le Rachinel MEP are among the members. Jean-Claude Martinez, the third MEP in the We Hate Marine faction is not a member, but an ally. The PF will run in 5 Euro constituencies, excluding Est (Gollnisch, whom Lang hopes to pick up if Marine becomes leader) and Sud-Est (Grandpa's constituency).

According to a forum I posted on that had a lot of FN supporters, Carl Lang seems to be going the hardline Christian right/national-Catholic route (which he certainly is not) this campaign. In fact, he launched his campaign at the Mont-Saint-Michel (I don't know why he launched it in Bretagne when his constituency doesn't include Bretagne No, Normandy is cool )

[big bad fab]

You know the old word: "Et le Couesnon, dans sa folie, mit le Mont en Normandie..."

I also had Valérie Pécresse once a time as teacher (she was Valérie Roux at the time, and 17 years younger, so REALLY gorgeous...). Very serious, but, as we say in French, "très scolaire", very unimaginative if you prefer.
So, I dropped her lesson and chose another one, by another member of the Conseil d'Etat, but one who understood deeply what is French public law.

Many boys attended her lesson (and so did I) only for the reason mentionned above: she was REALLY gorgeous.

Now, I think it's a pity Sarkozy is breaking some UMP's young abled politicians (Pécresse, Jégo, Dallier, even Yade who isn't as artificial as she is described - she's not Dati, if you prefer), as there aren't many (only Copé, Wauquiez; Chatel isn't very smart; Courtial is stupid; etc...).
Pécresse is a good politician and would have been a good minister, hadn't Sarkozy stolen every power a French minister normally has...

And did I say that she is REALLY gorgeous ?

[PGSable]

The PS will take the first steps tomorrow towards choosing its candidates. Ouest-France has some information about what's going on in the Nord-Ouest.

Gilles Pargneaux, the first secretary of the Lille federation and an Aubry supporter, will supposedly be the top candidate in the Nord-Ouest. She will be followed by an unnamed woman from Seine-Maritime, incumbent MEP Jean-Louis Cottigny, and Picardie vice president Laurence Rossignol.

Other likely candidates in the Nord-Ouest are Calvados general councilor Clotilde Valter and the Manche federation first secretary Stéphane Travert. Marie-Noëlle Linenmann, an incumbent MEP from Nord-Ouest, may run in another constituency.

According to the article, Henri Weber, who was the top candidate in the Nord-Ouest in 2004, will run in Massif Central–Centre. Vincent Peillon, another MEP from the Nord-Ouest, will run in the Sud-Est.

[PGSable]

The PS has its lists up on its website.

The PS national council voted approved these lists with 189 to 14 vote (with 18 abstentions). The militants will vote on them on March 12.

Here is the list, color coded by motion (blue for Aubry, red for Royal, green for Delanoë, purple for Hamon).

Ile-de-France
1. Harlem Désir, MEP, top candidate in 2004
2. Pervenche Berès, MEP
3. Benoît Hamon, MEP from the Est

Nord-Ouest
1. Gilles Pargneaux, first secretary of the Lille federation
2. Estelle Grellier
3. Jean-Louis Cottigny, MEP

Est
1. Catherine Trautmann, MEP
2. Liem Hoang Gnoc, deputy national secretary
3. Aurélie Fillipetti, MNA from 8e Moselle, spokesperson for the SRC group in the National Assembly

Sud-Est
1. Vincent Peillon, MEP from the Nord-Ouest
2. Sylvie Guillaume, regional councilor of Rhône-Alpes
3. Karim Zéribi, city councilor of Marseille

Sud-Ouest
1. Kader Arif, first secretary of the Haute-Garonne federation
2. François Castex, MEP
3. Eric Andrieu

Ouest
1. Bernadette Vergnaud, MEP
2. Stéphane Le Foll, MEP
3. Isabelle Thomas, regional councilor of Bretagne and city councilor of Saint-Malo

Centre
1. Henri Weber, MEP from the Nord-Ouest, top candidate in the Nord-Ouest in 2004
2. Cécile Jonathan
3. Alain Calmette, general councilor of Cantal and mayor of Aurillac

DOM-TOM
Réunion: Ericka Bareigts
Guadeloupe: Patrice Tyrolien
Polynésie: no candidate named
Mayotte: Ibrahim Aboubacar
Martinique: Catherine Néris, MEP
Nouvelle-Calédonie: no candidate named

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Their choices for second place really do suck. It's scary. I mean, unknown people like Estelle Grellier (defeated 2007 candidate), Liem Hoang Gnoc (quasi-Trot economist), Sylvie Guillaume (scarier. Google search returns nothing about her. Holy crap), Cécile Jonathan (see that Guillaume person), Stéphane Le Foll (spinmaster and Hollande friend). But I guess that's what happens when your party just got out of an all-out civil war and is now in a Cold War.

Their third choices aren't any better. Karim Zéribi, a goddamn union (CGT for SNCF. Haha lol haha) clown and former MDC member. Eric Andrieu, apparently mayor of a village with 158 people. And finally. The worst. The very worst. Isabelle Thomas, a former student unions clown and perennial loser who can't win any direct elections. Now those clowns could very well end up as MEPs.

Lol PS. You never fail to fail.

BTW. As a side note, French electoral law now says that these party lists in PR elections need to go male/female/male/etc or female/male/female/etc.

[PGSable]

Lol PS. You never fail to fail.

The PS is having problems in the Sud-Est. Bernard Soulage, who joined the European Parliament for the Sud-Est following Rocard's resignation, has refused to run because he is only ninth on the PS list for the Sud-Est this time around. Thierry Philip, the mayor of the hird arrondissement of Lyon whom Collomb had wanted to lead the Sud-Est list, also refused to run. Eliane Giraud, a regional councilor of Rhône-Alpes and designated suppléant, also refused that position.

Two candidates from the Est also refused their designated positions. Safia Otokoré (vice president of Bourgogne, ninth on the list) disapproves of Filippetti being third on the list. Pierre Pribetich (city councilor of Dijon, sixth on the list) disapproves of Gnoc being second on the list.

And, of course, Peillon considers his designation a "heartbreaker."

[Hash]

The PS really defied expectations again by doing their best to put up the worst lists possible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Their choices for second place really do suck. It's scary. I mean, unknown people like Estelle Grellier (defeated 2007 candidate), Liem Hoang Gnoc (quasi-Trot economist), Sylvie Guillaume (scarier. Google search returns nothing about her. Holy crap), Cécile Jonathan (see that Guillaume person), Stéphane Le Foll (spinmaster and Hollande friend). But I guess that's what happens when your party just got out of an all-out civil war and is now in a Cold War.

Their third choices aren't any better. Karim Zéribi, a goddamn union (CGT for SNCF. Haha lol haha) clown and former MDC member. Eric Andrieu, apparently mayor of a village with 158 people. And finally. The worst. The very worst. Isabelle Thomas, a former student unions clown and perennial loser who can't win any direct elections. Now those clowns could very well end up as MEPs.

Lol PS. You never fail to fail.

Unfortunately, I agree with you. I'm a PS sympathizer and I agree with the party's ideology ( especially with people like Strauss-Khan, Rocard or Delanoë ), but I can't more bear this ridiculous leadership. How could we have a real alternative to Sarkonservatism ? Maybe Bayrou, but it will be very tough...
Oh, in these moments I really would like to be an American !...

[Hash]

The PCF-PG "Front de gauche" has nominated some of its top candidates.

IdF: Patrick Le Hyaric (PCF). PCF leader in the Morbihan and director of L'Humanité. Led the PCF list in the Ouest in 2004. Carpetbagger.
Nord-Ouest: Jacky Hénin (PCF). Incumbent PCF MEP for the Nord-Ouest, former Mayor of Calais.
Sud-Ouest: Jean-Luc Mélenchon (PG). Whiny sod. PG leader and PG Senator for Essonne. Carpetbagger.
Ouest: Jacques Généreux (PG). Anti-liberal leftie economist.
Massif Central-Centre: Marie-France Beaufils (PCF). PCF Senator for Indre-et-Loire and Mayor of Saint-Pierre-des-Corps, industrial suburb of Tours

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News!

The CNI/CNIP, which was one of the largest parties of the right in the '50's and '60's but now a tiny joke party that has shifted quite a bit to the kooky right (the CNIP ran common lists with the FN in 1986, and participated in the MPF-dominated LDI in 1997) and just recently declared its full independence vis-a-vis of the UMP will run only two lists: the CNIP leader Annick du Roscoät in Île-de-France and a person named Daniel Mugerin in Outre-Mer (which the CNIP calls les de France in a colonialist manner).

Alternative libérale (AL), a small liberal/libertarian thingee founded in 2007 and run in a very authoritarian fashion (they already split!lol!) will run "many lists" including one in IdF led by its leader Sabine Herold-Fillias. AL makes me laugh.

Libertas, aka MPF-CPNT news. Paul-Marie Coûteaux, leader of the tiny Eurosceptic joke thing called RIF will not run with Libertas (I'm unsure if he's retiring or committing political suicide by running alone). In terms of top candidates, CPNT should get two (NW and SW) and MPF should get 6. Libertas' interwebs campaign will be co-ordinated by Arnaud Dassier, who worked for Madelin and Sarkozy in the past and Edouard Fillias, former leader of AL (and, for those wondering, he married Sabine Herold, the current AL leader whom I mentioned above).

The NPA has rejected working with the PCF-PG alliance, and has started nominations:

Sud-Est: Raoul Marc Jennar    
Nord-Ouest: Christine Poupin    
Île-de-France: Omar Slaouti. Besancenot is third on the NPA list.
Sud-Ouest: Myriam Martin    
Massif central-Centre: Christian N'Guyen

In other news, the NPA has already had it's first divisions (loltrotslol) over the issue of co-operating with the PCF-PG. Christian Picquet has launched Gauche Unitaire. Picquet's motion obtained 16% at the NPA's founding congress last month).

FN top candidates in the two last regions they didn't nominate for: Brigitte Neveux in Ouest and Patrick Bourson in Massif Central. Neither stand a chance at winning a seat.

The MEI-GE-France en Action has nominated its top candidates in 3 regions. It aims to run in 5 to 8 regions. France en action is basically a bunch of crazy nutters.

Île-de-France: Jean-Marc Governatori (FEA)
Ouest: Jean-Noël Debroise (GE)
Est: Antoine Waechter (MEI)

[MaxQue]

and just recently declared its full independence vis-a-vis of the UMP

Does that means than Vanneste is no longer an UMP member?

[big bad fab]

In other news, the NPA has already had it's first divisions (loltrotslol) over the issue of co-operating with the PCF-PG. Christian Picquet has launched Gauche Unitaire. Picquet's motion obtained 16% at the NPA's founding congress last month).

He has always been a supporter of an alliance with other left parties, especially the PCF, and with traditional trade unions, like the CGT.
He is more of the far wing of the traditional left, than a modern "gauchiste", if you see what I mean....

Already inside the LCR, he was an opponent to the Krivine-Besancenot majority.

[Hash]

and just recently declared its full independence vis-a-vis of the UMP

Does that means than Vanneste is no longer an UMP member?

The CNIP has allowed dual membership between the CNIP and UMP.

Also concerning a joke party, the PS membership has voted, 82% in favour and 35-40% turning out, of the EU lists except in the Centre. The 3 departments of the (very left-wing) Limousin rejected the PS list in the constituency because they didn't like Weber carpetbagging and no Limousin native was represented.

Ille-et-Vilaine (wow, Isabelle Thomas is an even bigger loser than I thought! Even her local fed doesn't like her!) and Côte-d’Or have also voted against the lists, though sadly the PS lists in the Ouest and Est have passed.

[Hash]

Aubry will negotiate with representatives of the Massif-Centre region this week, but not only with representatives from the Limousin but also Centre and Auvergne, both of which voted in favour of these lists.

The national PS has two non-negotiable points: Henri Weber ain't going anywhere, and Jean-Paul Denanot (PS President of the Limousin regional council, and the top choice of the local PS for top candidate) will not run since he holds too many elected offices already. Removing Jonathan, apparently a Royalist and Tours municipal councillor, would be a casus belli to the Royalists, so they can't do that.

On the other hand, the local PS wants the top 3 spots to be given to representatives from each of the 3 component regions. So, in other words, they want the carpetbagger, Weber, to screw off. The Limousin Socialists, apart from being strongly "hollandais" do not like carpetbaggers. In 2007, MRC leader Georges Sarre (a Parisian) was heavily defeated by the UMP in the Creuse, even though the constituency voted for Royal (IIRC).

Since both sides seem to be holding on to their positions, this could be very interesting. And if the national PS keeps being stubborn, this could be very interesting in the long-term, especially since the Limousin is strongly attached to its local traditions, officeholders, and hates carpetbaggers.

This joke party is funny.

[Hash]

Sad news for turnout from Ipsos. In 2004, 3 months from the vote, 69% said they would vote. Today, only 49% say they will vote. 58% of the twits who voted for the drug addict in 2007 will vote, and only 43% of those who voted for bling-bling will vote.

Anyways, that same Ipsos poll (voters certain to vote)

UMP 27%
PS 24%
MoDem 10%
Greens 9%
NPA 9%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6%
FN 5.5%
LO 2%
DLR 1%
FNd 0.5% (only polled in NW and SW)

[Hash]

Talking about list names, I found this gem. 2004 FN lists were called, for example:

Liste conduite par Jean-Marie Le Pen pour faire respecter en Europe les droits, les interêts et la souveraineté de la France, pour y défendre nos emplois, notre sécurité, nos libertés, notre niveau de vie et vos traditions, contre l'entrée de la Turquie dans l'Union européene

Translates to: List led by Jean-Marie Le Pen to make Europe respect the rights, interests, and sovereignty of France, to defend our jobs, our security, our liberties, our standard of living, and our traditions, against the adhesion of Turkey to the European Union.

Or this PT list in 1984.

Pour un parti des travailleurs - liste ouvrière et paysanne d'unité soutenue par le parti communiste internationaliste et par des militants du mouvement ouvrier de toutes tendances politiques et syndicales

Translates to: For a Workers' Party- workers and farmers unity list supported by the Internationalist Communist Party and by activists of the workers' movement of all political opinions and trade unions

[big bad fab]

Sad news for turnout from Ipsos. In 2004, 3 months from the vote, 69% said they would vote. Today, only 49% say they will vote. 58% of the twits who voted for the drug addict in 2007 will vote, and only 43% of those who voted for bling-bling will vote.

Anyways, that same Ipsos poll (voters certain to vote)

UMP 27%
PS 24%
MoDem 10%
Greens 9%
NPA 9%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas (MPF-CPNT) 6%
FN 5.5%
LO 2%
DLR 1%
FNd 0.5% (only polled in NW and SW)

Nothing really new... Like in the old days of 1982-1985 or 1990-1993 for the PS and of 2003-2006 for the right, the government support is very low.

The only surprises are the good numbers of PG-PCF and of MPF-CPNT.
Not good in relation to the past (European elections of 1999 for Pasqua-Villiers or elections priori to 1988 for the PCF), but good if you remember Villiers is a complete outsider now and if you remember that the NPA and Cohn-Bendit should have been the winners of the "protest left".

European elections and the fact that many voters don't know really for whom to vote explain that CPNT (and not Villiers) is able to do more than 5%.

Division in the far left is a real heavy trend in France....
17% for the far left (NPA+LO+PG+PCF), it's very high, but, as no one is above 10%, it won't be very much noticed, come election day.

Poor country...

[Math]

The only surprises are the good numbers of PG-PCF

I guess it's because they polled only likely voters. Communists have a very little electoral base now, but its turnout is always huge.