When was Bush's Thermidor?

[The Mikado]

Harriet Miers.  Agree/Disagree?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I disagree.  I don't think there was one individual moment; it was a culmination of various events.

[The Populist]

I disagree.  I don't think there was one individual moment; it was a culmination of various events.

I'm inclined to agree with that.  It's just too difficult to find that single moment, and say, "That's it!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Katrina.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Katrina.

Katrina caused his approvals to slide from high 40s to low 30s, and as far as I can remember, they never rose above 35 after that. Katrina was the end of his post-9/11 media honeymoon, and the end of his ability to get basically anything he wanted out of congress.

[The Mikado]

Katrina.

I agree in a sense. It was one thing when 9/11 happened and Bush couldn't control that, Afghanistan had to happen, Iraq was a failure and a lie but removing Saddam wasn't a bad thing and the response to it was mostly international.

Katrina was where the nation finally realized the depth of the cronyism of the Bush administration, the ineptitude of Bush, and the "photo-op" nature of Rovian politics. It was a domestic hit tht could have been assuaged in multiple ways, yet it was utterly ignored.

For intellectuals though (which was what Thermidor really was, the rise of intellectuals against Robespierre), I think we can trace it back all the way to "Mission Accomplished." At that moment, I think, all the minds in politics scratched their heads and braced for the worst. You could smell Rove on Bush's every word.

The reason I picked Miers is that it was when the Congressional GOP first displayed signs of independence life.  The, "no, you can't put your lawyer on the Supreme Court," reaction was the first sign that Bush and the Republican Party weren't synonymous, and from that point on, he was a lame duck.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I disagree.  I don't think there was one individual moment; it was a culmination of various events.

I'd tend to agree.

[Хahar 🤔]

Attorneys.

[Sensei]

I'd say, without doubt, Katrina. It showed his complete ineptitude and that of one of his appointees, to boot.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'd say, without doubt, Katrina. It showed his complete ineptitude and that of one of his appointees, to boot.

I still place the majority of the blame on Nagin, then Blanco, who claimed that she thought it was Bush's job to deploy National Guard troops.  What a freaking joke.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm with Mikado. Miers is when he lost Republicans. Up until that point, they had supported him through everything, even when Dems and Indies turned against him.

[minionofmidas]

All the answers in here are pretty reasonable (except for Inks' mention of the less-than-competent Nagin in one breath with the breathtakingly incompetent and arrogant Bush and Blanco, but we've been through that too many times before).
Although sorting through my memories I come up with another point of time entirely: The period between November 2nd, 2004 and January 20th, 2005. Probably not an accurate memory, but nvm. It seems as if, after Bush had won that undeserved second term, he absolutely hadn't the slightest clue what to do with it except playing "lame duck".

[Lief 🗽]

Actually, thinking about it more, I think the defeat of his Social Security privatization might be it. That was really the first time since 9/11 that he had lost a political battle, and he expended pretty much all of his remaining political capital on it. After he gave up on privatizing social security, he became a lame duck.

[Matt Damon™]

Every single day since 9/11. He has managed to botch the handling of islamic terrorism and domestic affairs to a rare degree. We've had epic failures for domestic policy and for foreign policy but Bush Jr. may possibly be the first POTUS who epically failed at both things at the same time.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Everything?

[Matt Damon™]

Everything?

Not true. Bush _did_ manage to get the do not call list passed.

[Scam of God]

I'm going to go on a limb here and say that Ronald Reagan's death had as much to do symbolically with Bush's descent into the depths of unpopularity (at least among his own base) as anything else. While Reagan was alive, the Republican President could prop him up on a stick and rally a diverse coalition of competing interest groups around his memory. With Reagan out of the way, and Bush II taking up the mantle of senior-most Republican, it became much more difficult almost instantly for him to have that same effect.

With the greater populace, of course, it's different: either Katrina or Abu Ghraib might have done the trick.

[Franzl]

I'm going to go on a limb here and say that Ronald Reagan's death had as much to do symbolically with Bush's descent into the depths of unpopularity (at least among his own base) as anything else. While Reagan was alive, the Republican President could prop him up on a stick and rally a diverse coalition of competing interest groups around his memory. With Reagan out of the way, and Bush II taking up the mantle of senior-most Republican, it became much more difficult almost instantly for him to have that same effect.

With the greater populace, of course, it's different: either Katrina or Abu Ghraib might have done the trick.

Abu Ghraib, I think, meant much more to foreigners than it did to most Americans.

[Brittain33]

The reason I picked Miers is that it was when the Congressional GOP first displayed signs of independence life.  The, "no, you can't put your lawyer on the Supreme Court," reaction was the first sign that Bush and the Republican Party weren't synonymous, and from that point on, he was a lame duck.

After he capitulated on Miers, though, they were ready to let bygones be bygones and move on. Bush lost Congress on Social Security, and that may have been a greater setback because it was a major legislative initiative and not a failed nomination.

Katrina made Bush look indefensible.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Katrina.

yes, in the broader public's mind. 

To his supporters, like myself, it was the Miers event since it was a totally unforced error of his own making.  He ignored 3 decades of GOP grooming of the finest legal minds and went with Miers.  Definitely was the dumbest move he made in 8 years, though it did the country no harm.  But, giving Bush credit where it is due, he quickly reversed course by choosing Alito.

The insiders on the GOP legal blogs stated the Friday before the Monday announcement that it was going to be Miers, but the choice was so stupid I could not believe it until she was actually announced Monday morning.

Definitely was the moment where I thought, "This Bush character is totally brain dead!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He picked Roberts before Miers, so how was that reversing course?

[opebo]

Why is it called Lobster Thermidor?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

He picked Roberts before Miers, so how was that reversing course?

true, I'll make the correction in my post

[The Mikado]

I don't read Lord of the Rings, so I have no idea what this means.

If you want to get the reference, put down Tolkien and pick up De Tocqueville.

In short, Thermidor's the point where a movement ceases to be a radical force that actually changes society and settles down into a stage of sitting on what they already accomplished.  It's the point where society says, "enough!" to a movement.  It's a reference to the original Thermidor, the end of the radical phase of the French Revolution.

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't read Lord of the Rings, so I have no idea what this means.

If you want to get the reference, put down Tolkien and pick up De Tocqueville.

In short, Thermidor's the point where a movement ceases to be a radical force that actually changes society and settles down into a stage of sitting on what they already accomplished.  It's the point where society says, "enough!" to a movement.  It's a reference to the original Thermidor, the end of the radical phase of the French Revolution.

I think he knows that.