LA-2 results

[Cylon Candidate]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

That pretty much guarantees he'd get knocked off in the primary.

He probably has a much better chance winning as Michael Forbes than as Nick Lampson. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

That pretty much guarantees he'd get knocked off in the primary.

He probably has a much better chance winning as Michael Forbes than as Nick Lampson. 

I can think of a better comparision...

[Cylon Candidate]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

That pretty much guarantees he'd get knocked off in the primary.

He probably has a much better chance winning as Michael Forbes than as Nick Lampson. 

I can think of a better comparision...

Yeah, definitely.  Next thing you know, Blago will resign, flee south, and get elected to Congress from LA-2. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

That pretty much guarantees he'd get knocked off in the primary.

He probably has a much better chance winning as Michael Forbes than as Nick Lampson. 

I can think of a better comparision...

Let's just hope whoever knocks Cao off is a lot better than who knocked him off...

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm also pretty pissed off at now at the Feds for dragging their feet on Jefferson's trial. He was indicted more than a year ago! If they had convicted him already we would've had a non-corrupt Democrat in that seat ever since the special election after his resignation.

[Sam Spade]

I'd also like to note how very pleased I am that the Republicans on this board and on the blogs aren't trying to make this into a "Democrats in peril" story.

Well, the spin machine starts at 9 am EST.

If the RNC spun Chambliss's victory as such, and had stories spun against them in the pre-November special elections, when one after another, GOP districts were picked off, I don't expect the leadership to keep quiet about this.

Anyway, as a faux-Democrat or whatever, I rooted for Cao and am glad he won.

But really, the entire state of Louisiana could go to hell.  It's the most corrupt state south of Canada.

Anyone who reads this as anything but a serious fluke needs to have their head examined.

GA Sen and LA-04 are different.

Most of the movement in GA Sen can be traced to less black turnout and strong Republican showing in the GA 'burbs - predictable.  However, the movement in rural Georgia - well, I've already pointed this out many times - is a concern.

In LA-04, Carmouche would have almost certainly won the election if it was 6 months ago.  Any candidate who runs almost 30 points behind the Prez in his home parish and loses it is not a strong candidate.  What it showed was that Carmouche had a strong 'personal vote' around Shreveport - worth enough to win.  But once you got outside Shreveport metro, it started to revert back to generic D vs. generic R (prez-style).  That's what handed the victory to Fleming.

What this means to me is that it is going to be highly unlikely for any Dem to win any open seat that has any significant concentrations of rural whites in the rural South, something which I suspected because of the Chambliss result, but feel more confident in saying now.  Of course, this doesn't mean that much for Obama, his keys are keeping the bourgeoisie suburbs behind him.

[Holmes]

Obviously. Jefferson simply could not win without Obama's coat tails. It just goes to show, this election was another referendum of Obama, and the great citizens of Louisiana simply said Nobama by voting Cao.



Cao seems like a congressman I can get behind. He looks fun, and his ties are funny. Hoping he really does stay moderate. Then again, congressmen from Louisiana don't mean much to me...

But, Carmouche.

[they don't love you like i love you]

obviously i hope the honorable bill jefferson is allowed to keep his seat.

WALTERMITTY GOT OWNED! HELL YES!

[they don't love you like i love you]

BTW if we needed any more proof that Walter's endorsement is the absolute kiss of death, if the guy he likes loses in THIS district...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What this means to me is that it is going to be highly unlikely for any Dem to win any open seat that has any significant concentrations of rural whites in the rural South, something which I suspected because of the Chambliss result, but feel more confident in saying now.

There's definitely a danger zone developing in the South, though I don't think we can be quite sure where the boundaries are and whether the depth will be the same at all points inside it, though I've my suspicions (which probably aren't all that different to yours). Need to have a closer look at a couple of things.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think I would have actually voted Republican in this race, just to get rid of Jefferson. So while it's a pretty amazing victory for Cao, it's not some sort of Republican resurgence.

[Nym90]

I don't necessarily agree with the assumption that Obama will continue to be a drag on rural Democrats in the South. Obviously that all depends on the success of his administration.

An economic turnaround, plus the inevitable increase in facetime for Obama in these parts of the world, could result in quite a swing toward Obama in 2012 in the rural South. For example, I highly doubt 15 percent of voters will still believe he's a Muslim come 2012. Rural voters in particular seem reluctant to vote for a candidate they haven't seen or heard from and don't know, especially if he seems a bit exotic. Those particular fears about Obama will ease provided there is improvement in domestic and foreign affairs in the next 4 years (almost inevitable eventually, just a matter of whether the economic stimulus takes full force before 2012).

[nclib]

Oddly enough, Jefferson Parish was where Bill Jefferson won big in 2006, while in New Orleans, he only won by 2%. And in this election, New Orleans is still close, but he lost Jefferson big time.

Black liberal vs. "anything-else" R is the answer there.

Please elaborate.

[Nym90]

I wonder how upset and sad WalterMitty is now.

I also realized Cao will be a way better rep for what New Orleans needs. It obviously needs tons of funding to revitalization, and you don't get that with a rep under a cloud. Cao will work better with the Democrats in rebuilding it than the disowned pariah Jefferson.

If you truly are wondering, it'd be much more effective to PM him, instead of saying it multiple times in one thread.

To say nothing of how that'd be the far more proper and elegant way to express your concern for him.

[minionofmidas]

I don't have Obama/McCain results yet, but get this:

Ward 3 Precinct 1 - Cao 231, Jefferson 14, Rahim 7, Kahn 2
2004: Kerry 269, Bush 234

By the river, very near the French Quarter.

[minionofmidas]

Well who would've ever predicted that the first Indian governor and first Vietnamese Congressman would be from Louisiana?

Who would have thought that Louisiana would have one of the best election results pages in the country?

To cross-reference the SoS results, the exact pre-Katrina location of New Orleans precinct polling places are available here.

There haven't been any changes post-Katrina.

[minionofmidas]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

Since Cao ran as an Independent for state house a year ago (in a race that also featured Dems and Reps)... I wouldn't actually rule it out.

[minionofmidas]

Wikipedia doesn't have a pic.  But here he is, first result in Google image search for his assumed name Joseph (not Anh)

Born into a Catholic family in South Vietnam during the war, my guess regarding the first name issue is that he was registered with the state with a Vietnamese name, but baptized with a Christian name, and merely has been using his baptismal name in America.

[minionofmidas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwLt_VPHjcc

He has a cute accent!

[minionofmidas]

Results by Parish:

Jefferson
Cao 60.1
Jefferson 38.3
Kahn 0.8
Rahim 0.7

Orleans
Jefferson 50.7
Cao 44.7
Rahim 3.8
Kahn 0.8

Meh. I'm happy with who won, but I'd have been much happier with 44-42-14 than 49-47-4.

[Lunar]

http://josephcaoforcongress.com/pg-80-11-about.aspx

He's probably not that corrupt too since he seems hard-core religious and he was an adjunct professor in ethics at Loyola.



Look at this video:
http://www.wwltv.com/video/?z=y&nvid=301642

He's being interviewed!

[Mr.Phips]

I'd also like to note how very pleased I am that the Republicans on this board and on the blogs aren't trying to make this into a "Democrats in peril" story.

Well, the spin machine starts at 9 am EST.

If the RNC spun Chambliss's victory as such, and had stories spun against them in the pre-November special elections, when one after another, GOP districts were picked off, I don't expect the leadership to keep quiet about this.

Anyway, as a faux-Democrat or whatever, I rooted for Cao and am glad he won.

But really, the entire state of Louisiana could go to hell.  It's the most corrupt state south of Canada.

Anyone who reads this as anything but a serious fluke needs to have their head examined.

GA Sen and LA-04 are different.

Most of the movement in GA Sen can be traced to less black turnout and strong Republican showing in the GA 'burbs - predictable.  However, the movement in rural Georgia - well, I've already pointed this out many times - is a concern.

In LA-04, Carmouche would have almost certainly won the election if it was 6 months ago.  Any candidate who runs almost 30 points behind the Prez in his home parish and loses it is not a strong candidate.  What it showed was that Carmouche had a strong 'personal vote' around Shreveport - worth enough to win.  But once you got outside Shreveport metro, it started to revert back to generic D vs. generic R (prez-style).  That's what handed the victory to Fleming.

What this means to me is that it is going to be highly unlikely for any Dem to win any open seat that has any significant concentrations of rural whites in the rural South, something which I suspected because of the Chambliss result, but feel more confident in saying now.  Of course, this doesn't mean that much for Obama, his keys are keeping the bourgeoisie suburbs behind him.

I was thinking the same thing.  This is why Democrats better hope to hell they dont get any retirements or open seats in certain districts(ie:  NC-11, GA-08, TN-04, TN-06, VA-09, ect) because these seats will be gone with the wind as open seats. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oddly enough, Jefferson Parish was where Bill Jefferson won big in 2006, while in New Orleans, he only won by 2%. And in this election, New Orleans is still close, but he lost Jefferson big time.

Black liberal vs. "anything-else" R is the answer there.

Please elaborate.

A lot of people in Jefferson parish couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Black liberal like Carter, even though they (as this election proves) obviously wanted Jefferson out.

[minionofmidas]

Rahim beat Jefferson in a couple of precincts - mostly white Liberal areas. He also beat Cao in several precincts in Algiers.

Possibly his best precinct result as a vote share is 04-06:

Cao 51%, Rahim 26%, Jefferson 23%.

Way undersized precinct though, just north of the ghetto areas just north of the Vieux Carré.  between Canal, Cortez, Saint Louis and Rendon.
Presidential results: Obama 79%, McCain 20%.

[Bacon King]

Well, I've gotta say I'm pretty excited here. I'm glad I predicted this one wrong.

Fun fact: I'm from California-15 (here at Tulane for college), so I'm one of probably 10 Americans (outside Hawaii) who has not one, but two Asian-Americans representing him in Congress. 

Awesome, I'm at Tulane as well- and I also agree with you about Cedric Richmond. Did you see the dem primary debate here on campus?

I did.  Are you in College Dems too?

Richmond was definitely the most impressive of that batch.  I hope and believe he'll be the nominee here in 2010.  But in this city, we'll probably pick Ray Nagin...

Yeah, though I haven't been to the meetings in a while. I did all the Richmond volunteering stuff so I definitely feel strongly about that guy.