LA-2 results

[Cylon Candidate]

Well, I've gotta say I'm pretty excited here. I'm glad I predicted this one wrong.

Fun fact: I'm from California-15 (here at Tulane for college), so I'm one of probably 10 Americans (outside Hawaii) who has not one, but two Asian-Americans representing him in Congress. 

Awesome, I'm at Tulane as well- and I also agree with you about Cedric Richmond. Did you see the dem primary debate here on campus?

I did.  Are you in College Dems too?

Richmond was definitely the most impressive of that batch.  I hope and believe he'll be the nominee here in 2010.  But in this city, we'll probably pick Ray Nagin...

Yeah, though I haven't been to the meetings in a while. I did all the Richmond volunteering stuff so I definitely feel strongly about that guy.

I sat that one out, and regret it now.  Won't next time, though!

[rbt48]

Two newspaper stories about this result:

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/jefferson_cao_in_dead_heat.html#post

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/congressmanelect_anh_joseph_ca.html

Kind of hard not to like the Congressman elect, IMHO.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

If Cao is smart he'll switch parties now.

Since Cao ran as an Independent for state house a year ago (in a race that also featured Dems and Reps)... I wouldn't actually rule it out.

But since then, he's become more involved in the party.

[Speed of Sound]

Wait a minute.....dear god....justice and good prevailed over partisan politics? Whats happening to this place?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The racial voting here is amazing. Cao might as well have got 100% of the white vote. Rahim might've beat Jefferson among whites. Meanwhile Jefferson probably got around 85% of the black but their turnout was rather low.

Interesting quote I read in some article, a black guy interviewed by a newspaper saying that he would've voted Jefferson but didn't vote because he didn't care so much about one more black Congressman after Obama's election. Jefferson probably would've hung on if McCain won, but Obama eliminated any reason for blacks to turn out.

[Хahar 🤔]

Fun fact: I'm from California-15 (here at Tulane for college), so I'm one of probably 10 Americans (outside Hawaii) who has not one, but two Asian-Americans representing him in Congress. 

The 15th? Cool. I'm there.


I wanted Rahim to win (yes, I know).

Cool.  Which part?  I'm from the non-rich part of Los Gatos.

I was tempted to go third party.  I didn't think Cao would even break 30%, but decided just in case to vote for someone I knew about.  I wish Cao the best, but know he's not going to be in the House that long.  Still, he seems to be an impressive guy, and may have a political future outside of the House.

That part between Cupertino and Saratoga that's in San Jose almost by accident.

Should've voted Green.

[Ronnie]

I don't know why all of the Democrats are drooling over the *former* green party candidate.  He literally brags about being a former black panther.

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't know why all of the Democrats are drooling over the *former* green party candidate.  He literally brags about being a former black panther.

I don't know. Ask Lewis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know why all of the Democrats are drooling over the *former* green party candidate.  He literally brags about being a former black panther.

1-He's not a Republican.
2-He wasn't caught with $90k in his freezer.

[Lief 🗽]

3- He hasn't been a panther since the 1970s.
4- He's devoted his life since then to advocating for affordable housing for the urban poor, the abolition of the death penalty, the release of political prisoners, and aid and relief in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.
5- Unlike the other three candidates, he's actually left of center.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, LA-2, you card!

[minionofmidas]

Interesting quote I read in some article, a black guy interviewed by a newspaper saying that he would've voted Jefferson but didn't vote because he didn't care so much about one more black Congressman after Obama's election. Jefferson probably would've hung on if McCain won, but Obama eliminated any reason for blacks to turn out.

Interesting and may have something to say about Georgia as well...

but I would like to note that in his House race last year Cao (admittedly running as an Independent. And admittedly as the only candidate from New Orleans in a St Bernard-dominated district. And - I think - in a field where everybody else was White. But most other candidates were Democrats) won the Black vote as well as the White vote within that corner of the city. The nature of the Republican candidate probably provided less reason to go to the polls as well.

Oh, and

6- He would have made Cynthia McKinney look at least as mainstream as she really was.


Note: I'll have a wealth of election data by ward up here sometime this week. Possibly today.

[minionofmidas]

Just noticed how very nearly Jefferson's percentage in New Orleans matches his showing there two years ago...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just noticed how very nearly Jefferson's percentage in New Orleans matches his showing there two years ago...

Do the ward figures look basically the same as well [qm]

[minionofmidas]

Just noticed how very nearly Jefferson's percentage in New Orleans matches his showing there two years ago...

Do the ward figures look basically the same as well [qm]

Not there yet, doubt it though.

[rbt48]

Does anyone have a good handle on how the vote by racial groups went in this election (AA and white would be sufficient).

[JSojourner]

Color me elated.  Jefferson was criminal trash.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Color me elated.  Jefferson was criminal trash.

rAcist

[JSojourner]

Color me elated.  Jefferson was criminal trash.

rAcist

LOL

[Flying Dog]

I'm extremely excited by this. New Orleans is basically my third home. I have so many relatives down there that I visit often and I don't want Jefferson representing my 3rd city.

[minionofmidas]

"Pretty well, with some notable exceptions" is the correct answer.




Note that the 9th extends outside of this map to the horizon.


First things first... totals.

2004, presidential election, Orleans Parish:

197,103 votes cast
John Kerry 77.4
George Bush 21.7
other 0.8

2008, presidential election, Orleans Parish:

147,439 votes cast - a quarter less.
Barack Obama 79.4
John McCain 19.1
other 1.5

The endless saga of the removal of Bill Jefferson:

November 2006 jungle primary:
94,026 votes cast
Bill Jefferson 30.1
Karen Carter 21.7 (lefty Black democrat)
Derrick Shepherd 17.9 (conservative Black democrat from Jefferson Parish. A State Senator at the time. Proposed the anti-baggy pants legislation that made the news in 2007. As corrupt as Bill Jefferson, and will probably beat him to the prison gate.)
Joe Lavigne 13.3 (The Republican in the race)
Troy Carter 12.0 (a former city councillor who wants the job. Bad. Also Black and a Democrat.)
8 more jokes 5.0 (maximum of 1.2 per person. 5 Dems, 2 Reps, 1 Libertarian)

December 2006 runoff:
just 62,164 votes cast
Jefferson 56.5, Carter 43.5

October 2008 Democratic primary:
69,211 votes cast
Bill Jefferson 25.3
Helena Moreno 19.9 (some blonde white local tv anchor)
Cedric Richmond 17.5 (Black State Rep. Still very young)
James Carter 13.4 (a city councillor. Yeah, yet another Carter...)
Byron Lee 13.0 (heir to Derrick Shepherd's vote base, as far as it concerns us here)
Troy Carter 8.4 (did I mention that he wants the job? Bad?)
some other bloke 2.5 (great name though: Kenya Smith)

November 2008 Democratic primary runoff:
163,626 votes cast, thanks to being held on the same day as a presidential election...
Bill Jefferson 56.8
Helena Moreno 43.2

December 2008 general:
66,846 votes cast, plus as yet uncounted provisionals
Joseph Cao 49.6
Bill Jefferson 46.8
Malik Rahim 2.8
libertarian bloke 0.8

But, of course, city and district are not identical:

http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/preview/congdist/la02_110.gif

Not only does the district include a horribly contrived part of Jefferson, it excludes the Republican part of New Orleans (save the tiny remnants of Republicanism at the far eastern end) and some random extra precincts that also have whites in them just to make up the numbers.
All in all it excludes most of the 4th and parts of the 5th, 7th (a tiny part), 14th, 16th and 17th wards.

So... cleaning up figures to include only the territory included in both:

[minionofmidas]

2004 presidential election
175,805 votes cast (slight note: includes absentees and provisionals from portion in LA-1)
John Kerry 81.7
George Bush 17.5
other 0.8

2008
133,171 votes cast
Barack Obama 83.8
John McCain 14.8
other 1.4

2006 jungle primary
62,412 votes cast
Jefferson 33.8
K Carter 28.4 (she bombed in Jefferson)
T Carter 13.0
Lavigne 10.8
Shephard 9.5 (he won in Jefferson)
other 4.5

2006 runoff
45,262 votes cast
Jefferson 51.3
Carter 48.7

2008 primary
49,348 votes cast
Jefferson 26.3
Richmond 22.0
Moreno 17.4
J Carter 16.8
T Carter 9.5
Lee 5.1 (he won in Jefferson. And Moreno came second there.)
Smith 2.9

2008 runoff
112,036 votes cast
Jefferson 59.2 (yes, he won in Jefferson. Just barely though)
Moreno 40.8

2008 general
45,720 votes cast
Jefferson 50.7
Cao 44.7
Rahim 3.8
Libertarian bloke 0.8

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Great stuff

[Torie]

Here is a nice map of the district overlaid on a street map.

[minionofmidas]

Now we get to the by-ward results... No, actually we'll get to them tomorrow. I've calculated it all but I've no time to type it down now. Ward 1 as a teaser, though.

Ward 1
2004p 1539 votes cast, 74.4 Kerry, 23.9 Bush
2008p 1218 votes cast, 76.0 Obama, 22.5 McCain
2006p 619 votes cast, 45.4 K Carter, 22.6 Jefferson, 14.1 Lavigne, 7.9 T Carter, 4.5 Shepherd
2006r 468 votes cast, 68.8 K Carter, 31.2 Jefferson
2008p 407 votes cast, 24.8 Jefferson, 21.9 J Carter, 21.9 Moreno (actually tied), 20.1 Richmond, 6.1 T Carter, 3.7 Lee, 1.5 Smith
2008r 1002 votes cast, 59.2 Moreno, 40.8 Jefferson
2008g 480 votes cast, 65.0 Cao, 30.0 Jefferson, 4.2 Rahim