John Sharp declares bid for Texan Seat (Update: So does White)

[Holmes]

"Well I know my state, and I know Dole will win re-election in North Carolina, even 2 years before the election."

[agcatter]

I believe I said "for the reasons I stated above".  Those reasons are sound although I'd be happy to hear anyone's opinions to the contrary.

I would also be happy to see the Democratic Party drop millions of dollars into a campaign here.  Ten to 20 million would be even better.  I suspect that won't happen.  In 2010, the Dem money will be pumped into Ohio, NH, NC, and, should Jeb opt not to run, Florida.

[Sam Spade]

Having White and Sharp in the same contest pretty much, in my mind, assures that neither of them get out.

That being said, of the two, White would be the more likely one to get into the runoff.  Of course, unlike Sharp, White has zero chance of winning a special election runoff.

[agcatter]

I agree Sharp would be the stronger candidate in a runoff with the R although still a substantial underdog.  Having White in this does nothing but seal the final fate of Sharp.  And Sam is right, White would not win a statewide race against the Republican, particularly an interum sitting Republican senator.

Frankly, I'm shocked White didn't announce for governor although my guess is Kay Baily scared him off of that one.

Republicans won't lose this seat.  It's still Texas.

[Lunar]

Could Perry appoint himself to Hutchison's seat and trade places with her?

[agcatter]

Hmmm.  Hadn't thought of that.  Legal, but politically I'm not sure that would fly.  Interesting....  Perry is not that popular in Texas BTW.

[Lunar]

Hmmm.  Hadn't thought of that.  Legal, but politically I'm not sure that would fly.  Interesting....  Perry is not that popular in Texas BTW.

He'd have a better shot against White than Hutchison though, no?

[agcatter]

I would think so.

[Lunar]

Someone would try and primary him in the Senate race too though...?

[agcatter]

I can think of a number of state office holding Republicans who probably wake up night and say to themselves "why not me?"

[jimrtex]

The reason that John Sharp didn't run for anything in 2006, or endorse anyone, was that he wanted to be a non-partisan advocate for the business tax.  In 2005, Perry had appointed Sharp to head a commission to come with a proposal for a new tax structure. 

Meanwhile, the Texas courts ruled that the school property tax violated the Texas Constitution.  The Constitution forbids the levying of a statewide property tax, but the way that school financing is done, it is essentially required almost all school districts to levy the same tax.  If it hadn't been for the court decision, the report of the Sharp commission would have probably just been placed on a shelf.  Instead, Perry called a special session in 2006, conveniently held after the primary, but before school districts started their fiscal year.

Sharp became the chief spokesman, especially before legislative committees, for the business tax in combination with a reduction in the school property tax (which permitted enough discretion so that it was no longer considered to be being imposed by the State).  This gave the plan enough votes to get through the legislature, despite Republican defections.
Texas law requires a special election for Senator at the next uniform election date (government entities, such as cities, school districts, and special districts have to hold their elections on one of these dates).  At one time there were 4 such dates per year - if February, May, August, and November.  Now only the May and November dates remain.  The governor can also discretionally set an earlier date between 36 and 50 days after the vacancy occurs.

In addition, if the vacancy occurs 63 or more days before the primary date in an even-numbered year, the special election is held in coincidence with the November general election, and there would be party primaries.  But because Texas has moved its primary to March (March 2nd in 2010), there are not 63 days in 2010 before the primary.

The governor may make a temporary appointment for senator, but because the election is such a short time later, there really isn't a big incumbency factor.  Ambitious candidates of either party are going to take their chance in a special election.  Because the special election is held on a different date than the general election, there are not restrictions for running for two offices at once.

If KBH runs for governor, she will have to file in late December 2009, or very early 2010.  The party primary is March 2, 2010, with any runoff on April 13th.

If she resigns around that time, the special election would be May 10th, with a filing deadline more or less coincident with the primary.  Candidates could conceivably file for the senate seat, then win their primary election, lose in the senate special, and run in the general election for the office for which they were nominated.

Or she could wait to resign.  If her term ended in 2011, no one would question her finishing out her term, while running for an office whose term begins about the same time. 

A mid-2010 resignation, could set up a special election coincident with the November general election.  In that case, candidates could not run for both senator and some other office.

Or she could wait even later, which would move the special election to May 2011.

I think the laws with regard to resigning an office with more than a year remaining on a term only applies to candidates for the legislature.  Tom Craddick's opponent this year was in the middle of a 4-year term on the Midland city council.  He eventually resigned, after it was argued that he should have been disqualified for not resigning first.
The 1961 special election for LBJ's seat had 71 candidates.  Newspaper accounts at the time would be about the main candidates, and then have a subhead that would read say something like, "35, 36, 37".   Our RBH from Missouri has somewhere posted the list of the 71 candidates.  At that time the filing fee was $50.

The 1993 special election in which KBH was elected following Lloyd Bentsen's resignation to become Secretary of Commerce had 24 candidates.

The current filing requirements for a special election are $5000 or 5000 signatures, which is the same as for running for a statewide party nomination.  Over the past 6 senate primaries there have been a total of 44 candidates, 25 Democrats and 19 Republicans, or over 7 per election.  And that just gets your name on the primary ballot.

[Sam Spade]

Perry could well appoint himself, but here's the problem with that.

If he does that, Dewhurst will become Governor.  IMO (just based on what I've observed), Dewhurst is the smartest man among the Republicans in statewide government right now in Texas.  He'll know well enough that he will be unlikely to beat Hutchinson, and even if he did, it would be bruising and ugly.

So, he would cut a deal with Hutchinson to get her people's support and run in the special Senate election where I suspect he'd have the advantage against Perry among Republicans (especially with Hutchinson support).  Presumably, he would also re-run for Lt. Governor again.

[agcatter]

Lot of good Republican candidates.  Attorny general Abbot for example.  Important not to clutter things up too much in a special selection with too many party candidates.  Exactly what Sharp and White are doing to themselves.  Dilute the party vote too much and you don't get in the runoff.