Vorlan your map needs explaining.Maine
Start with Maine and New Hampshire being in the Bush column? Evidence to show this trend please.
You would put your life on it that if the election was held today Bush would tie Oregan and win Maine?
Maine is divided into 2 Congressional Districts.
Maine awards 1 EV to the winner of each district, and 2 to the overall state winner.
In 2000 Gore won CD1 by about 8% and CD2 by just 2% (average over the state of 5% or so)
My "map" divides Maine into it's two CDs. I have Kerry up solid in CD1, with Bush marginally up in CD2.
Bush lost CD2 in 2000 by just 2%, given that Bush is up 4% or so Nationally and has a very helpful Hunter's Rights Ballot measure in Maine to help him in Maine CD2, I think a marginal Bush lead in CD2 is reasonable - Indeed shifting Maine CD1 a shade towards Bush is also not irrational IMHO, I just want to see some more polling before I do it.New Hampshire is a mixed bag.
Mason Dixon has Bush up 9% (which I do not believe)
ARG, which is based in New Hampshire and has an "ok" record polling the state says Bush is up 2%. - ARG has also been running very cold for Bush this year, so the fact ARG has Bush up a bit has a little extra weight with me.
The Rasmussen Bot Poll has Kerry up 6%
Both the M/D and Bot are likely wrong, with the truth likely being in between - a marginal Bush lead... I think
IF I am not sure on a state, I just leave it for who won in 2000 BTWOregon
We have 6 polls recently - and they divide 3 / 3
Mason Dixon says Bush by 4
Riley Rersearch Says Bush by 1
Survey USA says Bush by 1
ARG says Kerry By 2
Rasmussen says Kerry by 7
Research 2000 says Kerry by 7
The problem here is that the two best firms (Mason-Dixon and Research 2000) are at the opposite extremes - if the polls were 3/3 and both Research2000 and Mason-Dixon were in the same group, I'd take that group over the other.
Looking over the SurveyUSA sample I am inclined to think Kerry has a modest advantage, but I'd have to think about it a bit.
In 2000, Gore + Nader beat Bush by about 5.5%. Take 4% off this for Bush's National lead and Kerry by 1 or 2% seems like a fairly common sense probability. As well, if you average the 6 recent polls, Kerry comes out up about 1.5% or so.
I'll go with marginal advantage Kerry (o-2%) till I see another poll..