R2k-Kos: Matthews looks good in Dem. primary, tied general, Toomey fails

[Lunar]

Republican Primary

Specter (R) 43
Toomey (R) 28
Undecided 29


Democratic Primary
Matthews (D) 24
Murphy (D) 19
Schwartz (D) 15
Undecided 42

Matthews (D) 28
Murphy (D) 21
Undecided 51

Matthews (D) 30
Schwartz (D) 18
Undecided 52

Murphy (D) 23
Schwartz (D) 20
Undecided 57

General Election Matchups
Specter (R) 45
Matthews (D) 44

Specter (R) 48
Murphy (D) 36

Specter (R) 49
Schwartz (D) 35

Toomey (R) 35
Matthews (D) 46

Toomey (R) 36
Murphy (D) 44

Toomey (R) 36
Schwartz (D) 42



http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/12/12/11452/840/334/671921

[Keystone Phil]

The numbers look reasonable...for now.

[Lunar]

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see if Specter tilts to the left or the right in the next two years.  He has to straddle his primary and the general.

[Keystone Phil]

Indeed, it'll be interesting to see if Specter tilts to the left or the right in the next two years.  He has to straddle his primary and the general.

He'd be fine in the General (though age and health may become an issue) so he definitely needs to move to the right.

Those numbers are based mainly on name recognition. Matthews supporters shouldn't get too excited. I think the Schwartz vs. Murphy numbers are actually fine news for Allyson. Murphy has received a lot more attention yet he's only up by three in their head to head. If it comes down to those two, Schwartz wins thanks to the Pro Choice groups and their respective armies. Plus, she's better with the base as a whole.

[Verily]

The polls make it obvious it's all name recognition. In which case Matthews's position in the primary looks very precarious indeed compared with his outperformance of the other Democrats in the general.

Out of curiosity, who do the Kos people like?

[Lief]

Republican primary polls in 2004 dramatically under-estimated Toomey, by the way, especially this far out. Even the final polls still showed a Specter victory of about 10 points. He ended up winning by less than 2%.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

The polls make it obvious it's all name recognition. In which case Matthews's position in the primary looks very precarious indeed compared with his outperformance of the other Democrats in the general.

Out of curiosity, who do the Kos people like?

The comments people keep disparagingly calling Matthews "Tweety"(?), and one outright says he doesn't like him, with no disagreeing comments.  Another complains that "Tweeter" is "injecting himself into PA politics."

The comments about the other two are basically positive, but that they're little-known outside of Philly.  Looks like the Kossacks lean toward "not Matthews."  Not sure why.

[Lief]

The polls make it obvious it's all name recognition. In which case Matthews's position in the primary looks very precarious indeed compared with his outperformance of the other Democrats in the general.

Out of curiosity, who do the Kos people like?

People on DailyKos don't particularly like Matthews. Some of that is for the same reasons that a lot of other people don't like him (he's kind of an ass, he never shuts up, he flip-flops constantly in whatever direction public opinion is moving). A lot of it was his cheerleading for Bush before he became unpopular. He also supported the war in Iraq. I doubt there's much of a consensus as to the other candidate's though. They also all pretty much uniformly dislike Specter and obviously want him defeated, despite Phil's arguments that he's a "liberal".

[Keystone Phil]

Out of curiosity, who do the Kos people like?

I'm sure they dislike Matthews just because of his Bush 2000 vote. They'll probably prefer Allyson (though possibly see her as a DLC sellout) slightly over Murphy (a Blue Dog sellout). Schwartz probably would have the advantage due to the Pro Choicers.

I think Kos' ideal candidate would be Sestak.

Republican primary polls in 2004 dramatically under-estimated Toomey, by the way, especially this far out. Even the final polls still showed a Specter victory of about 10 points. He ended up winning by less than 2%.

Exactly. Basically any primary challenger to Specter starts out at 30%. However, in 2004, Specter was leading Toomey by about thirty points in the first polls.

Specter doesn't have Bush, Santorum or nearly as many Republicans as he had in 2004. If Toomey or anyone credible runs, Specter is in serious danger.

[Keystone Phil]

They also all pretty much uniformly dislike Specter and obviously want him defeated, despite Phil's arguments that he's a "liberal".

It doesn't matter if he is liberal or not. Specter is a registered Republican and that already means he's the enemy to these types. I'm sure they disliked Chafee and wanted him defeated as well.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

This Matthews thing needs to be stopped. I thought this crap was over with.

[Keystone Phil]

This Matthews thing needs to be stopped. I thought this crap was over with.

He'll take a major hit with his residency, if he runs. The guy hasn't lived here in twenty years. If that doesn't scream "major liability," I don't know what does.

[Lunar]

Matthews appears to be drifting towards not running.

His childhood dream has always been to become a senator, but he might not want to give up  million a year or whatevsky at a 1 in 5 shot at it.

[Prez Duke]

This is why I would hate to see Specter lose the primary. I just don't see Toomey winning unless the environment is really good for the GOP in 2010.

[bgwah]

The thought of Toomey vs. Matthews sends a chill down my spine. And I thought Casey vs. Santorum was bad...

[Keystone Phil]

This is why I would hate to see Specter lose the primary. I just don't see Toomey winning unless the environment is really good for the GOP in 2010.

Based on what? He's trailing his "toughest opponent" by eleven points at a time when the "D" after someone's name usually leaves them with at least a high single digit lead in the General. Plus, that eleven point lead would evaporate once you take away Matthews name recognition advantage and throw in some of his negatives. To only be trailing Murphy and Schwartz by an average of seven points is also awesome given the current climate.

I don't deny the advantages that Specter would have but to view this as terrible news for Toomey is really silly.

[Mr. Morden]

He also supported the war in Iraq.

Huh?  Did you ever watch Hardball in 2002-2003?  Matthews was constantly beating the drum of opposition to the invasion.  Read this interview that he did with Salon in February 2003:

http://dir.salon.com/story/news/feature/2003/02/14/chrismatthews/

Matthews calls the congressional authorization for war "worse than the Gulf of Tonkin".  When asked what's driving our policy in Iraq, he says:

Well, the right-wing policy with regard to Israel -- the people who don't want to deal with Arafat, who don't want a Palestinian state -- the whole sort of right-wing view is consistent with the view toward Iraq. It's the same policy and the same people. The conservative media world, the Bill Kristols, they're all saying, "Don't deal with Arafat, and push regime change in Iraq." It's all the same policy, and that's the policy that's destroying this administration.

[Prez Duke]

This is why I would hate to see Specter lose the primary. I just don't see Toomey winning unless the environment is really good for the GOP in 2010.

Based on what? He's trailing his "toughest opponent" by eleven points at a time when the "D" after someone's name usually leaves them with at least a high single digit lead in the General. Plus, that eleven point lead would evaporate once you take away Matthews name recognition advantage and throw in some of his negatives. To only be trailing Murphy and Schwartz by an average of seven points is also awesome given the current climate.

I don't deny the advantages that Specter would have but to view this as terrible news for Toomey is really silly.

I would hope that things are better by 2010 for the GOP. If the Democrats still have the advantage, things for the party will be looking bleak.

Can Toomey win in the Philly suburbs like Specter can? That will be key to him beating whoever he runs against.

[Keystone Phil]

Can Toomey win in the Philly suburbs like Specter can? That will be key to him beating whoever he runs against.

No, of course he can't. Toomey doesn't have that type of appeal with liberals. That being said, we're not looking for a double digit win. However, Toomey wouldn't be blown out in SE PA like Santorum was especially in a midterm year.

[emailking]

Rendell has basically endorsed him.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Rendell_Matthews_is_the_strongest_Democratic_candidate.html
Matthews loves Rendell. Might influence him some.

As for Iraq, Mr. Morden is right. He has never even remotely supported it. Before going in, he tried to be tempered in his criticism of Bush, since we hadn't gone in yet, but he still made his stance perfectly clear. For example, I remember one time he suggested Bush needed to read some more history.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell has basically endorsed him.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Rendell_Matthews_is_the_strongest_Democratic_candidate.html
Matthews loves Rendell. Might influence him some.

Rendell knows better than that. This means as much as his comments right before the 2007 Democratic Mayoral primary here. He praised the candidate - State Representative Dwight Evans - who was about to come in last, saying he was the most experienced and a bunch of other things. Evans still came in last. I guess he just likes to give praise to his friends/fans. What matters is what he does behind the scenes. I'm sure he'll stay away from this thing.

[emailking]

But why would he ultimately stay away from it? The final result is not at all clear at the moment. We're two years out. And at best the polls are giving a slight edge to Specter at the moment.

[Keystone Phil]

But why would he ultimately stay away from it? The final result is not at all clear at the moment. We're two years out. And at best the polls are giving a slight edge to Specter at the moment.

It has nothing to do with the General. I'm talking about the primary. There are two other potential (one of them likely) candidates that have ties to Rendell. Just because Matthews has the biggest crush on Rendell doesn't mean Rendell truly cares about him. But you actually reminded me of something...

You guys are aware that Rendell and Specter are old buddies, right? They're pretty close (and actually live on the same street here in Philly). They have to live up to their partisan duties but don't think that Rendell will really go after Specter on his own. This is one of the major reasons Rendell won't run for the Senate.

[True Democrat]

Looks like a name recognition poll to me.