If McCain had Won by 7%
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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  If McCain had Won by 7%
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Author Topic: If McCain had Won by 7%  (Read 6066 times)
humder
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« on: December 12, 2008, 01:53:33 PM »

 Post a map of McCain winning the election by the same margin as Obama.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2008, 02:12:41 PM »



Just by trends alone, this would've been the map, but I suspect other states would've fallen that were unexpected, like North Carolina, NE 02, and Indiana did for Obama.

McCain wins 326-216 in this map.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2008, 02:15:16 PM »



Just by trends alone, this would've been the map, but I suspect other states would've fallen that were unexpected, like North Carolina, NE 02, and Indiana did for Obama.

McCain wins 326-216 in this map.

     Amazing that Obama won NM & OR that decisively.
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RI
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2008, 02:16:35 PM »

ME-02 would also fall.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2008, 02:17:07 PM »



Just by trends alone, this would've been the map, but I suspect other states would've fallen that were unexpected, like North Carolina, NE 02, and Indiana did for Obama.

McCain wins 326-216 in this map.

     Amazing that Obama won NM & OR that decisively.

I have a feeling that if McCain had won by 7% that those states would've come home to him. I could see New Jersey or Michigan also flipping to McCain if he had won by that big of a margin because the economy obviously would not have been an issue.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2008, 02:18:37 PM »



This is probably the map if McCain wins by 7% and there's no economic crisis.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2008, 02:29:10 PM »



McCain wins 327-211
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2008, 02:33:29 PM »

Why is McCain's 7% victory reflected with a smaller amount of EVs than Obama's?
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humder
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2008, 02:59:56 PM »

Why is McCain's 7% victory reflected with a smaller amount of EVs than Obama's?
Obama had an electoral advantage? I think in a 50-50 election, Obama wins the EV.
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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2008, 03:56:27 PM »

346-192:
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benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2008, 04:01:17 PM »

Michigan looked to be a swing state for a while, and the lack of an economic crisis could've sent it to McCain.  I just flipped a coin on Oregon and New Jersey.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2008, 04:20:34 PM »

Minnesota would flip before Michigan. It was only D +3 this election cycle.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2008, 06:29:18 PM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Who told you this?
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benconstine
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2008, 06:32:32 PM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Whoever told you that is an idiot.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2008, 08:12:02 PM »

Michigan looked to be a swing state for a while, and the lack of an economic crisis could've sent it to McCain.  I just flipped a coin on Oregon and New Jersey.

And to talk about Oregon again, I believe that in this scenario that Oregon would have been closer, but it would probably have gone to Obama still. Obama has always been safe in that state throughout the fall campaign, even without the financial crisis. I would still question New Jersey, but I think that it would have gone to Obama as well. New Jersey is more democratic than Pennsylvania, results show this, and it is just the way that it is according to past results and the 2008 results. So, I can see McCain winning Pennsylvania in this scenario, but not New Jersey or Oregon. Both Oregon and New Jersey would have been close, but would have stayed with Obama in my opinion.


I think you're right on Oregon, gporter. This is a state which has always been a temptation for Republicans, but hasn't voted for the party at the Presidential level since 1984. The closeness of the race in 2000 and 2004 was a virtual chimera, with a huge defection to Nader that masked the Democratic lean to the state at the national level.

The state has been heavily polarized between urban and more rural areas (upstate vs downstate) for decades, a trend that was only exacerbated by controversy over logging issues in the early '90s. The key reason for recent Democratic dominance is that the wealthier Portland suburbs have been moving increasingly Democratic, and in 2008 winning by almost landslide margins.

My precinct research is showing that Obama won the suburban part of Clackamas county (68% of county) by 58-40 (including an impressive almost 2-1 win in wealthy Lake Oswego) and 61-37 in the suburban regions of Washington County (92% of county).

Although McCain would most likely have won Clackamas in the event of a 7 point national win, he would still have lost Washington County. Even assuming a 7 point swing in key regions of "downstate Oregon" (Deschutes, Jackson, and Marion) this would not have been the case in the liberal strongholds of Multnomah, Lane, Benton, and Lincoln counties).

Without at least almost 50-50 split of the Portland suburbs it is virtually impossible for a Republican to carry the state these days when 55% of the total vote comes from Portland Metro.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #15 on: December 13, 2008, 03:25:07 PM »

And, let me close with this.

...

And to talk about Oregon again,

...

And one other comment to Ben,

I like it.  Say one thing, do another.
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Sensei
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2008, 03:47:15 PM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Whoever told you that is an idiot.
the spell check would have pointed out that could've was not a word if you had used the spell check.
could've is not a word according to the spell check. In fact, the only "'ve" word that doesn't get picked up by the spell check is would've.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2008, 06:26:02 PM »

Contractions are frowned upon in formal writing, but obviously no one here is writing formally.



A lot of states could go either way (OR, NV, WI) and depending on what caused Obama to lose (white working class backlash, abysmal Hispanic turnout) states like MI and NM could flip.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #18 on: December 14, 2008, 11:12:12 AM »

Bush states + at least MI, PA, ME-2, NH, and OR

Possibly surprises from NJ, MI, WA, or CT
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benconstine
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« Reply #19 on: December 14, 2008, 11:41:38 AM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Whoever told you that is an idiot.
the spell check would have pointed out that could've was not a word if you had used the spell check.
could've is not a word according to the spell check. In fact, the only "'ve" word that doesn't get picked up by the spell check is would've.
that is what I was saying, thank you.

Seriously?  The spell check doesn't think Obama is a word, should I not use it, then?  Could've is a word, and you should've learned that when you were in kindergarten.
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2008, 11:58:45 AM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Whoever told you that is an idiot.
the spell check would have pointed out that could've was not a word if you had used the spell check.
could've is not a word according to the spell check. In fact, the only "'ve" word that doesn't get picked up by the spell check is would've.
that is what I was saying, thank you.

Seriously?  The spell check doesn't think Obama is a word, should I not use it, then?  Could've is a word, and you should've learned that when you were in kindergarten.

gporter actually contradicted himself here...what a surprise.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2008, 05:04:47 AM »

Bush states + at least MI, PA, ME-2, NH, and OR

Possibly surprises from NJ, MI, WA, or CT

Spell check issues aside.... Even if McCain won by 7%, he would not have won Oregon

Demographics of the state have changed in favor of the Portland suburbs.... Latinos are a growing influence in Marion, Jackson, and Deschutes counties and would have reduced the McCain margin. Traditionally Democratic timber precincts in places like Junction City, Toledo, Philomath, Roseburg, and Oakridge were returning to the fold for the first time since Dukakis (w/o Nader or Perot on the ticket).

I see no way the math would have worked for a Republican even with a 7 point margin nationally, the swings would not have been in the Pacific NW this cycle against a candidate like Obama.
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Franzl
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« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2008, 06:19:06 AM »

And one other comment to Ben, it is not proper grammar to use words like "could've." It should be "could have."

Whoever told you that is an idiot.
the spell check would have pointed out that could've was not a word if you had used the spell check.
could've is not a word according to the spell check. In fact, the only "'ve" word that doesn't get picked up by the spell check is would've.
that is what I was saying, thank you.

Seriously?  The spell check doesn't think Obama is a word, should I not use it, then?  Could've is not a word, and you should've learned that when you were in kindergarten.

gporter actually contradicted himself here...what a surprise.

No he did not. Sad

Look, I know he can act pretty dumb sometimes, but gporter does not deserve to be criticized every single time he says something. You do not need to be immature and start a flamewar every time that he says something.

Oh, and @"constine": fixed Wink

how is it not a contradiction to say in one post that "could've" is in fact a word...but it shouldn't be used.......and then in a second post to argue that "could've" isn't even a word?

You don't see the slightest contradiction?
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2008, 12:57:40 PM »

If McCain had won by the same % Bush won in '04, he would have won the same states Bush won +NH - NM and NV.
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nclib
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2008, 12:13:48 AM »

Interestingly enough, if McCain had won by 2% with uniform swings, this would be the map:



Yes, a 269-269 tie.
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